Strange turn

z7

V is a winning reg/professional. Very Aggressive in position and not afraid to semi bluff.
1400effective

5/5/10(rock) 500-1500 rock with V UTG+2

H in MP opens to 40 with AJJ9 nut spades and clubs. 6 ways to flop

Flop (245): t42ssd

2 checks hero bets 200. Folds to V calls

Turn (645):Ac v checks

H?

High__Rolla

I went back and forth, but I think I prefer a check here.

Closing the action preflop in the rock, this V should be fairly wide. Similarly, he can also be wider then normal closing the action on the flop. He should read you for being fairly strong betting into a 6-way field even though the flop is ragged. I tend to think he x/r's 44xx and 22xx OTF often. He might be more willing to flat TTxx OTF. I think he flat calls all flopped two pair, wheel draw+, overpair+FD, and 53xx.

The ace OTT is interesting and appears better for your range. If he hit the nut straight, I think he often plays it for a x/r so he can get stacks in and because he should think your range is heavy in AAxx, NFD, and ATxx which he would expect to bet. He probably just goes with TTxx knowing that sometimes he runs into the overset. So, the main issue I see if you bet is that you will be priced in to call-off, but generally will be drawing to 8-10 outs.

It is tempting to want to bet to try to fold out his two pairs, but you already good equity, like 40% against a hand like T984. And, you can also use your position on the river to bluff broadway cards. Checking may also allow you to get more value OTR if you overflush him since he would expect you to bet the NFD OTT.

z7

So I though about his range here as well. V doesn’t have 22 or 44 almost ever here. I know V and I know he’s c/r 44 and TT. He’s very unlikely to have 22 but that’s the only set he c/c sometimes. So I was essentially ruling out sets. He could have a set of AA on turn.

Now based on how my hands looks here, TT AA AT are all very likely. And I think V’s most likely hands are flush draws or weak 2/pair (maybe AT). So if he’s ever folding 2-pair it’s on this turn, and if he has a draw im miles ahead. He also can’t expect me to bet all my value hands/draws here. So would he really check the wheel? If I check and rivers a brick, he’s likely to bluff a huge amount of his range. And I wouldn’t be able to call.

Spoiler:

So I led $475. Leaving me with like 600 or less behind. V x/r and I called. Turns over 9753 with 2 spades. I lose. I still think it’s close and I’m still not sure if checking or leading is better.