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Value bet river? Check call? check fold?

z7 Posts: 219Subscriber
So 2 V’s. V1 is a very tight possibly break even or slightly winning player. 2.1k

V2 is tight probably break even. 900

H covers both. 5/5/10(rock) 500-1500 plo

H is in the rock UTG with J8ccJTss

Limps around to H who checks option.

Flop 5 ways (50) 9c7c4d

V2 bets out 40. H raises to 140. V1 on button raises to 500. V2 goes all in for 860.

Back to H with wrap+fd. So my thought process, V1 is extremely tight. He is not raising with naked nfd here behind this action. So his hand is very likely a set. A board pair I AM beat. He is raising a hand like QJT8 on button probably 100%. So him having qjt8 with QTcc is I think almost always out of the question. But he could have a lower wrap+fd sometimes (rare)

V2 could have nfd being this short and is going with it. But it’s extremely likely he has a set or a hand similar to mine or just nfd.

I flat (folding board pairs) V1 cannot reopen and calls.

Turn (like 2700) is Kc. So I essentially have second nuts because nobody has the Q high flush here almost ever.

I check (I actually don’t like this check as if V1 has a set he’s calling.) V1 tanks for 30 seconds and checks.

River is interesting(2700): 8s. Completing all wraps. V1 has 1100.

H?
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Comments

  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,288Pro
    Flop - obviously very dependent on your reads but I have no reason to doubt them. If V1 ever can steal or bluff in late streets then it may be better to just get in than call with the intent to fold paired boards as it would be a huge mistake to let yourself call flop and get bluffed, but thats reasonably rare.

    Turn - I agree check is bad - better to go with your reads and jam as you can get V1 to fold a lot of eqiuty and if you are beat is most likely by V2 per your read and the extra money does not matter. V1 checking behind does change his range a lot as nut flush is betting most of the time, so as played jam river seems like you will get called sometimes by worse and are likely best
  • High__Rolla Posts: 731Subscriber
    If V1 is very tight, can he fold middle set OTF or bottom set (much less likely holding)? Or even 97 with clubs? If so, there is merit to shipping the flop OOP since your line will look super strong. You are a coin flip versus dry sets and a favorite against other hands. Only thing you really fear Is a set with a higher flush draw but you still have 35% equity against and should be very small part of his range.

    As played, I agree that you should ship the turn to get value from his sets.
  • z7 Posts: 219Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    so I shipped it on river. Figured V1 is gonna have a straight or smaller flush here sometimes, and after I check turn i don’t have nutflush. V1 snaps. Turns over A774 with nut clubs so middle set nfd, explains why he raised flop and checked turn. V2 had 997 with 1 club. So although I really disliked the turn check it didn’t matter here. And this I think is a run bad kind of moment...
  • High__Rolla Posts: 731Subscriber
    ^ Yep, that’s run bad. When you both have a flash, I don’t think it matters how you play the river with a pot as big as it already is.

    However, I am wondering what is the best line against his sets. Everything got there so I’m not sure if you can get a “very tight” villain to look you up. But would he ever turn a set into a bluff to try to fold out your straights? If so, maybe a check/call is best OTR?
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 268Subscriber
    edited January 18
    I'm ok with this flop call, and don't want to pile on the turn action, but as pointed out, we have to lead there b/c most dry sets are going to check back, and then freeroll their way to a fold when a card like that 8 hits the river and they now know they are toast. So missed value and missed denial of equity on the turn. Results = Puke. But if he had just 77xx then he'll fold the river as played and we get nothing extra.
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