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1-2 Bluff-catching river with 2nd pair on crazy wet board

Piggy Posts: 88Subscriber
edited January 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hero (UTG+1, $300): Late 30s asian male, looks considerably younger (early 20s), in office attire grinding after work on a weeknight. Playing very tight due to being card dead, have only VPIP 5 or 6 times in over 2 hours. Only 1 hand has gone to showdown so far, Hero had AA and snapped off a short-stack all-in preflop.

V1 (MP, $150): Late 20s white male with goatee in hoodie and baseball cap. Somewhat loose, calling pre with Ace-rag and offsuit connectors. Has been straddling / double-straddling most orbits and raising his straddle, driving the action along with V2.

V2 (BTN, $900): Middle-aged Eastern European male. Crazy LAG raising over limpers and calling opens with any two remotely suited or connected cards. Recently cracked AA with 75o calling a 3bet IP, calling a Q-high flop, and turning trips. The big spot at the table.

UTG straddles $4. Hero opens to $16 with A Q, folds to V1 who calls, folds to V2 who calls, blinds and straddle all fold. 3 ways to the flop.

Flop ($49 after rake): K Q T

Hero checks first to act, thinking that this is a bad board to cbet from OOP. Kx is likely not folding, plus there are many pair + draw or two-pair+ hands possible including flopped straights with AJ/J9. Flop checks through.

Turn ($49): K Q T 4

Hero bets $30. When such a wet flop checks through, nobody should have two-pair or better. Kx pair + draw hands likely bet flop as well (KJ especially with J). Any naked K that didn't bet flop is likely not going to be super comfortable with the flush out there. We should be able to get value from naked A, J, and T draws. V1 snap calls, V2 folds.

River ($106 after rake): K Q T 4 8

Hero checks. V1's call on the turn could be a made flush, but it could equally be a flush draw. If Kx wasn't folding the turn, it may not fold river either. We have showdown value and want to keep V1's range wide plus it might let him bluff the river. V1 bets $70 leaving himself only $34 back.

Is this a fold or a call, and why?

Comments

  • MrBiggles Posts: 5Subscriber
    I think this spot is pretty interesting. V1 should be polarized here with either a flopped straight or a bluff but he doesn't go all in on the river as would be expected. It seems like any weak K would just check back river. V1's call on the turn makes me think that he has Tx with the T or Ax with the A - the only hand that I can actually see him possibly betting for value on this river is T8. I would think that any J plus pair would have certainly bet the flop as well as most Ax flush draws given villains description. While I'm not 100% in love with this spot i would probably call.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    Its the whole question of what bluff does he have? AsTx? Or just air cuz he’s crazy? Your line obviously looks weak but there is not a lot of hand reading and bluffing at 1/2. He can have JsTs that gets to the river like this and even AsJs or any AJ that didn’t know what to do. QT, KT etc that was scared until you checked river. It’s pretty common at low level V wants to get to the river then make up their mind if they are good or not. His sizing is value so I just let him have it.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,977SubscriberProfessional
    I'm not sure I'm a fan of betting the turn. I'd much rather take the line of check/call the turn and (likely) check/fold the river. This is a turn card that villains will often "stab" at with Qx, Jx, or the naked As, but will usually check behind on the river.

    As played, always be wary of short stacks that put most of their chips in, but not all. He is heavily skewed towards value with that sizing. There aren't enough value hands you beat to make a call here. Fold river.
  • FriendlyFish Posts: 83Member

    When you say villian is loose pre calling with offsuit connectors and Axrag. Is he doing this in late like co or button only or in mp or ep? If it’s the latter, it means he has a TON of AsXx combos that would justify this as a call. His snap call on the turn is most likely nut flush or nut flush draw as he is going to think about a reraise with player left to act if he had a non nut flush. So when he bets river the only value hand I see possible is the nut flush.

    We can take out a lot of 2 pair/ straights out of his range as he is likely to bet those hands on flop and if not he would likely jam turn with those hands due to stack siZes and wet board. So I really don’t think he has 2p or straights here at all, maybe 5% of the time.

    Sizing 70 leaving 30 behind i don’t think is value heavy with the way the action went, he could be bluffing with intentions of saving himself some money as well as puting in max pressure. If you’re calling 70 you’re most likely to call 100 so going all in won’t give him much more fold equity for his bluffs.


    In conclusion he has nuts or naked A here. More combos of AsXx due to his playstyle so I’m calling here with these odds. You only need to be good 33% of the time to make it a profitable call and I think you have way more than that so as played I would happily call here.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited January 2018
    The flop checked through & they had incentive/position to semibluff spades -- I probably call based on image.
  • Piggy Posts: 88Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    I figured villain for a busted naked ace flush draw or the slow played nut flush. Nobody with two-pair or a set would ever check back such a dangerous flop. Any Kx that isn't a flopped two-pair should be checking back river for showdown value.

    I tank called and villain had A 4
  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    Villain doesn’t seem like the kind of player who would take passive lines (check and call) on the flop and turn if he had something good. Seems like even with a big draw he’d be betting or raising one of those.

    Also, in a cash game I don’t read much into a bet that leaves a little behind. It’s not like a tourney where there’s no point in leaving yourself a tiny stack. Money is money. If he thinks $70 does the same job as $100, may as well save $30.
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