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KQ Polarized Spot

MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
edited January 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is an unknown MAAG, but seems like a regular of some sort. Been playing a couple of hours, no significant showdowns/frequencies though. Hero should have a tight image. Insights appreciated on all streets, but river is most relevant I think. We're about $360 to start. Thanks.

Hero (UTG2): Kc Qs

UTG c $3, H r $20, fold x 2, V (HJ) c $20, fold x 3, BB c $20, UTG folds

F ($64): 7h 2h 2d

BB x, H b $35, V c $35, BB f

T ($134): Qc

H x, V b $45, H c $45

R ($224): 7d

H x, V b $100, H ???
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Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,804Subscriber
    i think i call here. im not sure what hand takes this line though to villain. It really seems like you either got a FD or a med pair or soemthing.

    I think that if we are to bet flop here we need to bet turn as well and continue on with our range. I could be wrong. I just dont see any value hands that bet flop and check a dryish turn. Now if we were to check flop and lead turns, thats another line I could see here we can keep enough draws and semi bluffs in for lighter calls.

    AP im calling here cause of the c/c on turn and river check. I could see villain having a Q or FD or a hand like 88-99.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    Yea we should have continued for like $75-90 OTT. As played we really don’t know where we are at and have to call even though we get shown a 7 or A2 a fair amount.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    pokertime said:
    Yea we should have continued for like $75-90 OTT. As played we really don’t know where we are at and have to call even though we get shown a 7 or A2 a fair amount.
    Are we parlaying a turn value bet into a river shove on all non A/hearts/7 then? Are we x/f those scare cards otr? We're past the commitment threshold getting very close to playing for stacks, and while I will charge FDs that won't fold a paired board on turn, I also fold out TT-33 alot of the time, & create a weird river spot just the same, no?
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I mean, QhXh hasn't been accounted for?

    IMO, the turn check is what gets us into the river spot. When we check turn, we give villain a free shot with his entire range. Maybe this includes some 7x. Maybe 88 or 99 that thinks you don't like the Q and may just be trying to get you to fold because he doesn't want you to suck out. Maybe hearts, trying to get everything to fold, bless his soul. The point is, when we take this line, we have to be prepared to face a wider range than usual. And when we face a wider range, we have to navigate spots like this river. I'd bet this turn just because we're probably betting with the rest of our bluff range, so we need some value hands. $75 or $80 sounds about right. Always folding to a raise though.

    The 7 isn't necessarily the greatest card. There are some 7x in his range, but then again there may be some 7x in our range. When the 7 pairs and he bets, do we think he is betting 2x? I'd note it if he did, but I doubt it. We bet flop and check/called turn when an overpair came. Too often do I see regulars just check back the bottom boat in an instance like this.

    That being said, there are some 7x in his range, as well as a little bit of 2x. As was said earlier. QhXh hasn't been accounted for, but that's probably a check back on the river. All of the hearts haven't been accounted for. We're going to lose a bit, but we're getting a good enough price that we should be able to find 1 bluff for every 3.25 value hands. I'd call.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,977SubscriberProfessional
    I agree with other posters that not betting the turn is a mistake. If you're going to c-bet this flop, then you need to be barreling any cards that hit your hand, as well as those paint cards/aces that don't.

    As played, there's enough Qx, Ax, and busted flush draws to make the river call.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    I appreciate the input so far, & I understand the logic for keeping the turn lead, but then what is our plan for various rivers OOP w/ less than a PSB behind? Are we shoving clean rivers for thin value? X/F dirty cards? Etc.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,977SubscriberProfessional
    Yep, shoving most clean rivers. For value on a K/Q turn, or as a bluff on an A/J turn.

    Question for you: If you weren't planning on doubling the turn, then why did you bet the flop?
  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    edited January 2018
    (First post. Love the site so far.)

    I actually think in a normal small stakes cash game again most garden variety opponents, people aren’t betting much on a bluff. Is he doing that with an A? Only way he’s got a Q is exactly Qxh, and that’s only maybe 3 combos KQ, QJ, QT.

    JJ, TT, 99, 88 are 24 combos but I don’t know why he’d make that river bet with any of those. But I’m willing to count maybe 6 on the 25 pct chance.

    So that’s 8 combos you’re beating (one chop). I’ll give him one more for the small chance he’s betting a busted flush draw. That’s 9 (plus a chop).

    There are 24 combos of A7, 87, 67 alone. Even if A2s is the only 2 he’s got, that’s 2.

    When in doubt, peoples big bets generally mean what you think they mean. (I mean regular average or mediocre players, not good tough players.)

    Also, I don’t like the turn check for this reason. If you had position I think you could have checked behind to induce a lot of bluffs and also save a little money when you’re behind.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited January 2018
    dpbuck said:
    Yep, shoving most clean rivers. For value on a K/Q turn, or as a bluff on an A/J turn.

    Question for you: If you weren't planning on doubling the turn, then why did you bet the flop?
    Because the flop misses both opponents 65-75% of the time, we probably have about 20% draw equity w/ our overs (though I didn't think it was a super profitable draw as both K/Q are "scary"), & I can bluff A/J turns. On the turn I feel a check here protects my give-up range generally speaking, though it does polarize my turn betting range somewhat, & I didn't see TP on a paired board as a 3-street stack off hand here (though I see the argument that it is +EV if villain is a hero caller -- but I tend to think most regs are not).
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Fletch23 said:
    (First post. Love the site so far.)

    I actually think in a normal small stakes cash game again most garden variety opponents, people aren’t betting much on a bluff. Is he doing that with an A? Only way he’s got a Q is exactly Qxh, and that’s only maybe 3 combos KQ, QJ, QT.

    JJ, TT, 99, 88 are 24 combos but I don’t know why he’d make that river bet with any of those. But I’m willing to count maybe 6 on the 25 pct chance.

    So that’s 8 combos you’re beating (one chop). I’ll give him one more for the small chance he’s betting a busted flush draw. That’s 9 (plus a chop).

    There are 24 combos of A7, 87, 67 alone. Even if A2s is the only 2 he’s got, that’s 2.

    When in doubt, peoples big bets generally mean what you think they mean. (I mean regular average or mediocre players, not good tough players.)

    Also, I don’t like the turn check for this reason. If you had position I think you could have checked behind to induce a lot of bluffs and also save a little money when you’re behind.
    I think your combo work is a bit optimistic. For example, giving an average reg stuff like A7o/76o, etc. when they flat you in middle position is likely off base. A better estimate is something like A7s/87s/76s/A2s/77/22 (10 combos), until I have better frequencies/showdowns to prove otherwise. You're certainly correct that people generally underbluff at these stakes though.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,977SubscriberProfessional
    MonadPrime said:
    On the turn I feel a check here protects my give-up range generally speaking, though it does polarize my turn betting range somewhat, & I didn't see TP on a paired board as a 3-street stack off hand here (though I see the argument that it is +EV if villain is a hero caller -- but I tend to think most regs are not).
    I guess my point is that we shouldn't be "giving up" on a queen, regardless of holding. It is a great value card when we have Qx, and a great bluff overcard to the board.

    Also, we're only 70 BBs deep. I'm comfortable getting in TP2K on this board.
  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    MonadPrime said:


    I think your combo work is a bit optimistic. For example, giving an average reg stuff like A7o/76o, etc. when they flat you in middle position is likely off base. A better estimate is something like A7s/87s/76s/A2s/77/22 (10 combos), until I have better frequencies/showdowns to prove otherwise. You're certainly correct that people generally underbluff at these stakes though.
    Fair point. But that's still 10 combos are are comfortably within his range, and comfortably fit all his actions to this point.

    If we're making him a very reasonable player, though, then I really can't see this line with JJ-88 at all, or a bare ace. I can't see him calling the flop with any Q other than the suited ones. So that leaves us with the KQh-QJh-QTh, or maybe Q9h. And if he's got one of those, he's still making a bet that isn't very smart. That's 3-4 combinations out of the whole deck, one of which is only a chop.

    It's just hard to put him on a hand you're beating, unless -- and this is the big if, that's read dependent -- we really believe he's a tricky or smart enough player to put a move on you for $100 with a busted flush draw. (Also, I think most flush draws would check behind on the turn to take the free card.) I just don't think you see a lot of that at 1/2, and the players who do it are pretty easy to identify.

    Just my 2 cents. I'm open to other opinions.

  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    MonadPrime said:
    I appreciate the input so far, & I understand the logic for keeping the turn lead, but then what is our plan for various rivers OOP w/ less than a PSB behind? Are we shoving clean rivers for thin value? X/F dirty cards? Etc.
    As for the turn issue, if you bet about half the pot and he flats, he's almost certainly got a flush draw. If you bet the turn and he raises you, he's got to have a 2, 77 or, at worst, one of the Qxh hands. I think you can fold to that range.

    Then on the river, depends on the card. If the flush hits, check and call if his bet gives you 2.5 to 1 or so. If it misses, check and call anything.
    by 1Stoked
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    dpbuck said:
    MonadPrime said:
    On the turn I feel a check here protects my give-up range generally speaking, though it does polarize my turn betting range somewhat, & I didn't see TP on a paired board as a 3-street stack off hand here (though I see the argument that it is +EV if villain is a hero caller -- but I tend to think most regs are not).
    I guess my point is that we shouldn't be "giving up" on a queen, regardless of holding. It is a great value card when we have Qx, and a great bluff overcard to the board.

    Also, we're only 70 BBs deep. I'm comfortable getting in TP2K on this board.
    Sure, fair enough.

    What do you think calls us down for 3 streets/stacks? Are we banking on getting hero called at a high enough freq by TT-88/Qxhh?
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,977SubscriberProfessional
    Let's talk a bit abstractly.

    I'm betting the flop with KQ on 722hh because:
    - As you state, we're ahead a lot.
    - We can get value from flush draws.
    - Good barrel cards to fold out 7x and midpairs can come.
    - We can still make a strong top pair.

    I'm betting the turn on a T/J/A because:
    - I can fold out 7x and midpairs with a turn bet (and potentially a river bet).
    - I can continue to get value from flush draws.

    I'm betting the turn on K/Q because:
    - We're ahead of everything except 2x.
    - We can continue to get value from flush draws.

    If turn is T/J/A and river is a blank, I shove river as a bluff:
    - We fold out 7x and midpairs.
    - Yes we may value-own ourselves if villain hits one of those cards himself.

    If turn is a Q/K and river is a blank, I shove river for value:
    - Most midpairs and 7x are folding anyway.
    - We're hoping villain has Kx or Qx himself.

    Big thing: When we barrel off on a T+ turn and a blank river, villain won't know if we're barreling for value or as a bluff and can't play optimally against us. That's the whole point of betting those big cards on the turn.

    What was your plan for the hand if you didn't hit a Q/K? Were you planning to be one-and-done?
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,977SubscriberProfessional
    edited January 2018
    From the "great timing" department, you should check out @KiLee 's Fast Track modules on turn play released today:

    http://www.crushlivepoker.com/curriculum/turn-play

    Talks a lot about constructing turn betting and checking ranges. He certainly explains things better than I do...
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited January 2018
    What was your plan for the hand if you didn't hit a Q/K? Were you planning to be one-and-done?
    Was gonna keep firing on an A or J.

    Thanks for your input. Appreciate it.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Spoiler:
    Hero calls. Villain shows 22 :frown:
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