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Go for thin value OTR on a monotone flop?

TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
edited February 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/5 $1k cap, $1k eff, hero has tight image in first few orbits due to being card dead.
V is a 20's wg unknown, has been fairly active in the first two orbits since hero sat down.

Hero opens +3 to $25 over an UTG limp with K Q
Villain calls next in
folds to limper who calls.

Flop ($75) K 9 3
limper checks, Hero bets $45, v calls. Limper folds

Turn ($165) K 9 3 J×
Hero bets $100, V thinks for a moment and calls.

River ($365) K 9 3 J 6
Hero bets $275, villain tank calls.

I chose this sizing to look polarizing. In-game I was targeting KT/QJ and other assorted A X hands that picked up equity OTT.

First, how does my sizing look? Is my bet too thin given this action?

Second, should we be checking at any point during this hand? Positional awareness tells us the villain should be relatively strong, so the value range we're targeting is thin.

Comments

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited February 2018
    I'd go a little bigger pre, but that's minor. Postflop line through turn looks good, and on the river we're targeting T9s/JdTx/JxTd/QdJx/QxJd? We'll also lose to K9s/J9s/33/QdTx/QxTd, and any non-nut flushes that villain just calls down with. Honestly I don't try to put alot of polarized-pressure on unknowns, and would opt for a small river sizing, like 125. Even if they end up being fishy & you could've gotten more vs the weak end of their range, I think on average the smaller sizing is best & does not blow the average/weak recreational off his bluff-catchers.
  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    It doesn’t look like a lot of hands you beat are calling you here unless you have a crazy image where people think you’re bluffing or your villain is just a weak calling station. And it looks like neither of those are true.

    I would have bet smaller, if at all, on the river.
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Against an unknown player, I'm less likely to put them into polarized spots because we don't necessarily know how they'll react to them. I'd like a standard bet sizing better for the river, maybe like $165 or so.

    We're targeting a fairly thin range. I doubt the A-hi diamond draw is just going to call this river. There is too much that beats it. KT, AdJx, QJ.....maybe, especially if they think you missed a diamond draw. I'm not too worried about flushes or two pair or sets. I am a little worried about the QT straight - specifically, Q T× or Q× T . Both are reasonable flats on the flop, and then on the turn if they raise they're just folding out everything worse and getting only better to call. And they wouldn't raise the river either in the event that you do have the flush. I like the smaller sizing overall to ensure that there is worse that can call us. I wouldn't be surprised when we bet this amount to be beaten more than 50% of the time.
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    I have to agree with everyone that the sizing on the river is too big. I like a bet of 125-160 to give his weaker 1 pair hands a better price to hero call.

    The more I think about it this may be a spot to check/fold. I think he will prob check back here a lot with Kx type hands as well as AK and KJ and decent amount... people just don't value bet enough.

    You have bet 2 streets which looks pretty strong. Looks like you are prob going to check call. So I guess this is kinda like 5th street chicken here??

    IDK pretty sticky spot. I think I would check fold.... but expecting it to go check check and we win a decent majority of the time
  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    thanks everyone for the great feedback. I agree with most posters here - I think the river bet has to be much smaller.

    Spoiler:
    V tanked for a minute and finally called. For a moment I thought I was good when I rolled my hand but v rolled over K9cc for flopped top two
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