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River decision and impact of live tells

sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
edited February 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2 400 cap game in Portland, OR.

Hero has never played here before and has a neutral image. Villain is a middle aged Asian guy who is pretty tight and made some thinner value bets.

6 handed and 400 effective. Hero is first to act in the SB--due to a button straddle of $5--and opens to $18 with K Q hi-jack, cutoff, and button call.

Flop ($72) Q 9 2

Hero bets $45 and only the Villain on the Button calls.

Turn ($162) 6

Hero decides to check.. could go either way, but thought betting here would be a little thin. Villain checks his hole cards and thinks for a minute before betting $75. Folding feels way too weak (especially with the redraw) so I call.

River ($312) 5

Brick river. I check and villain thinks for a second and bets $120. Hero looks at villain after thinking for a second and he appears to be uncomfortable and not very confident (but obv. cant be certain this isn't just Hollywooding). Hero?


Also, a more general question. How much of your win rate comes from picking up on live tells vs. playing fundamentally strong poker? I can tell you for me it is about 90/10 (with 90 representing fundamentals), but would like to know other's perspective.

Comments

  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    This spot is tough if villain description is accurate.
    Villain is a middle aged Asian guy who is pretty tight and made some thinner value bets.
    This is not nuts or nothing here. He could be value betting all flushes. As well as Q9 and flopped sets that decided to only call the flop for whatever reason. If he make thinner value bets he could be betting AQ for value as well.

    We basically only beat a bluff here right. So villain could be bluffing with.... ???? I cant really come up with a hand can you? I thinks its pretty optimistic to think that villain called with A T . Planning on using the A blocker play to represent the nuts if a diamond falls

    I'm leaning towards a fold here in this spot
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    I probably begrudgingly call this small sizing. If he bets thinly QJ/QT are likely in his range, as is JT w/ a FD that bricked out. Yeah he has 99/22/Q9s/Flushes too and it's a thin call down but probably close to correct. Folding is definitely a good play though.
  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    One thing I find to be a reliable live tell is when someone re-checks his cards, he does not have a flush. People remember the suit when they have suited cards, but not so much when they aren’t. So when someone checks it’s usually because there are 3 of something on the board on the flop or turn and they want to see if they have one for the draw on the river.

    In this case, I think you can be confident he doesn’t have a flush.

    As for your general question, I think you’re right. At the low levels (1/2 to 2/5) there are so many bad players that if you just play fundamentally solid and know the math, they’ll make enough mistakes for you to win, without worrying too much about tells.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    I disagree that people don’t look back at their hand with suited cards. Most players are checking because they want to be sure. They are recs not pros so they don’t have a lock on their exact cards at all times and they want to double check before putting money in often because they are drinking. They do the same thing if they hit trips. If they look back at the cards then bet it’s more often the hand they are representing or a good hand they may be over valuing like a set on a 3 cards to a flush board etc

    It’s hard to quantify but I would think tells are at least 20% of my game. Fundamentals are the key but I’ve made wacky folds and calls and been right based on a tell even with good/bad odds and strong/bad hands. I’ve also had times where my tell read was perfect but blockers blah blah and I lost. So I go with tells when they seem solid.

    In this hand I’m probably going to let him have it. The nervousness could be the fact that his flush is likely low or he has a set or 2 pair he’s over valuing and none of these want a raise. I think we need at least AQ to start considering a call here.
  • sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    Thanks for the feedback. I guess I thought this hand was interesting cause of the tells that came into play, and realized how rarely I take them into account.

    I think overall this is a close spot and the ev of calling / folding is probably similar.

    For those interested:
    Spoiler:
    I went back and forth in my mind, but getting such great odds, his actions, and the fact I blocked a few of his flush combos, I callled. I would have preferred having the A here though.

    Note: I am a bit of a station.

    He folded pretty quickly, so my gut tells me he had J10 with a diamond.
  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    pokertime said:
    I disagree that people don’t look back at their hand with suited cards. Most players are checking because they want to be sure. They are recs not pros so they don’t have a lock on their exact cards at all times and they want to double check before putting money in often because they are drinking. They do the same thing if they hit trips.
    If someone is obviously terrible or drunk or very new to the game, you’re right that you can throw normal tendencies out the window.

    However, I think that most (not all) of the time, any halfway competent rec player, let alone a good player, knows the suit of their cards if they have suited cards.


  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    Fletch23 said:
    pokertime said:
    I disagree that people don’t look back at their hand with suited cards. Most players are checking because they want to be sure. They are recs not pros so they don’t have a lock on their exact cards at all times and they want to double check before putting money in often because they are drinking. They do the same thing if they hit trips.
    If someone is obviously terrible or drunk or very new to the game, you’re right that you can throw normal tendencies out the window.

    However, I think that most (not all) of the time, any halfway competent rec player, let alone a good player, knows the suit of their cards if they have suited cards.


    Yea we are saying the same thing. There just aren’t a ton of good players overall. Most players aren’t that great and drink at the casino so I see a lot of looking back in general so you have to correlate it to what’s going on in that hand.
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