1/2 400 cap game in Portland, OR.
Hero has never played here before and has a neutral image. Villain is a middle aged Asian guy who is pretty tight and made some thinner value bets.
6 handed and 400 effective. Hero is first to act in the SB--due to a button straddle of $5--and opens to $18 with K♦ Q♠ hi-jack, cutoff, and button call.
Flop ($72) Q♣ 9♦ 2♦
Hero bets $45 and only the Villain on the Button calls.
Turn ($162) 6♦
Hero decides to check.. could go either way, but thought betting here would be a little thin. Villain checks his hole cards and thinks for a minute before betting $75. Folding feels way too weak (especially with the redraw) so I call.
River ($312) 5♠
Brick river. I check and villain thinks for a second and bets $120. Hero looks at villain after thinking for a second and he appears to be uncomfortable and not very confident (but obv. cant be certain this isn't just Hollywooding). Hero?
Also, a more general question. How much of your win rate comes from picking up on live tells vs. playing fundamentally strong poker? I can tell you for me it is about 90/10 (with 90 representing fundamentals), but would like to know other's perspective.