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TP2K vs River Raise

Villain is a young asian reg rocking sunglasses & a ballcap. Second time playing together. Pretty passive/abc overall despite his appearance, sticky pre, but haven't witnessed anything crazy postflop. However, he tanks ALOT, and is clearly paying attention, but not sure if he's capable of adjusting.

Only relevant history -- I B-X-B against him earlier this session for thin value w/ 88 on KK4xx & used smallish sizing on the river to get a call. I'm playing fairly TAG generally.

Do I call this river? Seems weird -- shouldn't I expect a raise from 2PR+ on flop/turn? Could my sizing be better/different overall? Thanks.

Hero ($450): Kh Qs

Fold x 2, H r $15, fold x 2, V (OTB) calls, fold, BB calls

Flop ($45): Qc Jh 9s

BB x, H b $30, V c, BB f

T ($105): 7d

H b $55, V c

R ($208): 4s

H b $85, V r $255, H ???

Comments

  • QuantumSurfer Posts: 138Subscriber
    Based on V's description, this river raise is always value. It's possible that a more passive villain wants to make sure straightning cards don't ruin his 2p, maybe even set before he tries to max out on them.
  • Fletch23 Posts: 115Subscriber
    That’s a huge flop for a button cold-calling range from a decent player. Although he probably should have raised earlier to get more value with a straight, set or 2 pair, it still is very possibly the line he took.

    The alternative is that he’s running a huge river bluff against a guy who has bet on all three streets, so he can’t feel he has a lot of fold equity.

    All you have is a pair. I’d fold.
  • sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
    Trivial fold. What bluffs are in his range? When is the last time you saw someone take this line as a bluff at 1/3?
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    I don’t know what he could be bluffing really other than air to be a tough guy and your saying he doesn’t seem that out of line. I’m willing to believe he flopped it. If I flopped a straight and got this dream run out I would call down to then jam river to hope you felt priced in. We don’t even have TK so baring some super read I can find a fold.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    You can have all of the strong hands. In these spots, you can often fold top pair to a river raise. It is correct and unexploitable to fold top pair to a river raise if you can have stronger hands.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Spoiler:
    Hero folds. Villain tables AT :(
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    I'd check the turn to control the size of the pot. The boards becoming extremely co-ordinated and dry and there will be many run-outs on which you'll have to make a crying fold or call against aggressive players in position (any ace, king, jack, T, 8 or diamond) which is a substantial portion of deck.

  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I may bet a little larger on the flop as this is one of those flops where we're both going to hit pretty hard with our ranges. Ours just tends to hit a bit harder, but it's possible he doesn't know that.

    The tough part about the river is that we block only 1/8th of the possible straights. I think you're correct in that 2 pair/sets are raising flop or turn given the draw heavy nature of the board. I don't think straights necessarily raise flop or turn. If the board had any sort of flush draw, then they're probably raising turn. But with no flush draw present and blocking the T, those straights probably feel comfortable.

    If he has all the straights...even just 1/2 of the T8 combos...that's still 20 combos. Can we find the necessary 5 or so bluff combos? Basically, it comes down to whether or not we think this Villain is capable of turning a hand like JT into a bluff. If he can turn JT into a bluff, then we probably have enough bluff combos to cover even the weirdly played 2 pair hands. If he can't, and by his description it doesn't seem like he can, then we should probably fold.
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