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2/5 flop play with top set very deep

Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
edited February 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Game is 2/5 with a rock straddle so most hands are played 2/5/10 or 2/5/15

Villain is a "big money player" he always keeps enough on the table to cover everyone. When it comes to his play though he is pretty ABC. He usually has it when big money starts to go in. Overall kinda loose preflop and then abc postflop.

Both villain and bb view me as a tight solid player and usually give my bets respect.

2300 eff
No straddle this hand

I make it 20 K K from HJ
Villain calls from CO
bb (loose gambly) calls

Flop (55) K T 8
Bb checks
I bet 40
Villain makes it 125
Hero?
Ill stop here because I thought this spot was interesting given how wet the board is.

Whats our play here?
Just call and see a turn? If so whats our plan ott?
bet 3 bet here? if so whats our sizing?

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    if he isn’t likely to fold I am going to put in a threebet. he is very very likely to have a strong hand here because you have top set.

    so he is mostly has sets two pair or a big draw. I would size to around 400-450. not too small and not too big.

    if he has a set you are likely to get it in on the flop or turn if no spade comes
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,845Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    Raise for sure. If your read is right than this is sets with lowest ranges being a combo draw.

    If villain flats and spade comes gong to be tough but think i would have to check.
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    A key point is what does villain think of you ? If you 3! the flop big like $475 will he expect you might have a draw if he has a set and get it in ? Will he continue with a draw? You say tight solid. But do they think you might try to "protect" AA? Do they think you might bomb a combo draw?

    The thing is if we were shallower we would like to just call because it is hard to play on ♠️ and A and 9 turns and we can't fold. In the 100 bb case we are always getting the money in vs a set so it doesn't matter too much. This deep we need to raise.

    I probably go for gold and raise big. On scary turn cards we play poker. If your image is tight without bluffs a click back is in order. Maybe $245.

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,845Subscriber
    ^^^

    I thought of just calling here but after some thought felt we lose too much value to certain runouts to lower sets and 2 pair

    Didn't think of this spot for us shallower being more of a call. Figured it would be opposite where shallwoer is easier shove and deep is more of a call.

    Bad thing to shoving is villain can easily get away from bricked draws and let's say we raise flop we got a 1k pot on a brick turn. Villain is almost always looking for pot control here so we would have to lead at least 1/2psb. Villains could fold quite a few hands in this spot to us on turn

    If we just flat, the chances of villain playing pot control has to go considerably down along with the chances of him calling a lead from us goes up. Can we flat then lead 1/2 turn and river on blanks?
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    neverlearn2 said:
    ^^^

    I thought of just calling here but after some thought felt we lose too much value to certain runouts to lower sets and 2 pair

    Didn't think of this spot for us shallower being more of a call. Figured it would be opposite where shallwoer is easier shove and deep is more of a call.

    Bad thing to shoving is villain can easily get away from bricked draws and let's say we raise flop we got a 1k pot on a brick turn. Villain is almost always looking for pot control here so we would have to lead at least 1/2psb. Villains could fold quite a few hands in this spot to us on turn

    If we just flat, the chances of villain playing pot control has to go considerably down along with the chances of him calling a lead from us goes up. Can we flat then lead 1/2 turn and river on blanks?
    If you raise the flop big and lead 40-50% pot on turn the villain isn't even correct to fold anything on the turn so I would not worry about that. Practically speaking few folks call flop 3! looking to fold the turn.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,845Subscriber
    Ok. Cool. Thought maybe calling here was some next level shit I wasn't thinking of
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    Based on your description and his raise size it looks like he has a real hand or a huge combo draw that's never folding.
    He has all sets and 2p in his range.
    This deep, I'm 100% b3bing to like 400 to build the pot up.
    K high flop is great cause he might put us on over playing AK or obv AA, so it makes it almost impossible for him to fold a set unless you're known as a huge nit...

    Let's pump it up!!!
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    I'm calling.
    We're so deep that raising doesn't accomplish anything other than bloating the pot.
    If V has a combo draw like Q J then we're only 60/40.
    Half the deck is bad for our hand: any , any A, Q, J, 9 or 7

    if we raise to 450 - we're playing our hand face up...
    now the SPR becomes 2-ish
    giving V an advantage on the turn
    (looking ahead - what if the 9 comes on the turn and V shoves... are we calling?)

    If V is never folding - raising does little to help us win the hand
    we should want to delay leverage to the turn

    if V is a bad player who called with AK or AA - and now thinks it's good - he's probably betting any turn
    to which we can check/raise or check/shove
    V should have a combo draw here almost always
    since we've got 2 more streets to go - we should avoid raising here when equities run close
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    Too many cards are left in the deck that will change the nuts by the river and if you decide to flat
    1) you lose a ton of value
    2) you give V the option to play pretty close to best/optimal on later streets

    Yes, flatting keeps some hands in your range that don’t want get all the money in on this Street and yes I’d rather have middle set here but we don’t need to balance or try to get creative on this wet of a board OOP against what seems to be rec players that most likely will forget how you played in this spot, you could trap with similar hands on different run outs.
    I understand the dilemma, you have a tight image, they give you a lot of respect when you decide to put in some mega loot in the middle but I’d rather exploit IP more often than OOP when we don’t have a lock hand.
    I think a three bet to around $450 looks good and I’d recomand doing same with some of your very strong draws.
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    Thanks for all the responses!

    Spoiler:
    My thinking was in line with everyone's. I did end up raising to 440 total and he folded AK face up. Didn't notice if he had the A in his hand or not. Not even sure if he is on the level of looking at suit distribution or not.

    I guess I kinda ran in to the bottom of his vale raising range here... It may have even been a "find out where im at" kinda raise. I definitely think he could have had a lot of sets and 2 pair in this spot that I wanted to get value from before the turn brought an action killing card.

    In game I was thinking that my image is way too tight if he is raise folding here with AK but the more I think about it really is the bottom of his value raising range. I doubt he would have folded KT or T8. Hes definitely not folding sets
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    Beatsme said:
    Thanks for all the responses!

    Spoiler:
    My thinking was in line with everyone's. I did end up raising to 440 total and he folded AK face up. Didn't notice if he had the A in his hand or not. Not even sure if he is on the level of looking at suit distribution or not.

    I guess I kinda ran in to the bottom of his vale raising range here... It may have even been a "find out where im at" kinda raise. I definitely think he could have had a lot of sets and 2 pair in this spot that I wanted to get value from before the turn brought an action killing card.

    In game I was thinking that my image is way too tight if he is raise folding here with AK but the more I think about it really is the bottom of his value raising range. I doubt he would have folded KT or T8. Hes definitely not folding sets



    Spoiler:
    I agree.
    I think the move is definitely to raise.
    If your image is very tight, he probably figured that AK is the bottom of your range to b3b, plus you can easily have AA (or better), so he folded...
    However, most will never fold 2p+ type of a hand on the flop.
    You blocking AK, so it is very unfortunate that that's exactly what he had.
    It is what it is....
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Lol the villain outplayed us. He correctly figured us for the value betting bet folding patient nits we are.

    Well played by the villain. And we need to think of more bluffs against a guy like this.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Normally top set is a hand that you might want to play a little slower but here, rather ironically, I think it is the best hand to go for a 3 bet for value with. When you have TT or 88 V's raise range is gonna have a lot more Kx "find out where it's at" but when we have KK we block a lot of that stuff and V is much more likely to have a strong value hand or a draw. Both of which we want to 3 bet vs.

    I'd go 425. ~1k in the pot on the turn, bet 750. 2.5k in the pot on the river. Shove is for around 1.2k. Assuming clean runout obviously.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    Still love the 3 bet even after seeing results. When we have KK, like i said. He has so much less Kx raises like this which i do expect to fold to a 3bet. We just ran into the pure bottom of his range, especially when there is only 1 K left.
  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    As described I think you got all the value out of the hand you could. Even if you flat the $125 and then lead the turn he's probably folding. The only other option is flat the $125 then check the turn and hope we just didn't let the flush get there. I would say there is a fair chance he's checking behind on the turn after you call the flop. If the flush card hits on the turn or river, its going to freeze up both of you pretty bad.
    I think the only way you're every really making more on this hand is if he hits an offsuit Ace for top two, but thats slim.
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