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5-10-20 3 bet spot at 125BBs

BartBart Posts: 5,917AdministratorLeadPro
$5-$10-$20 Hollywood Park Friday night. Hero just sat down to the table a few hands before. V1 is one of the two pros that play the overnight shift at HP. He's fairly decent, understands new sizing and tends to play aggressively preflop. He definitely 3 bets me a fair amount. In these three bet pots postflop, however, he can be a little unbalanced with bluffing and pot controlling medium strength showdown hands.

$2500 effective. Folded to button ($1k) who limps. Hero raises to $100 with A Q from SB. V1 3 bets to $310 from BB. Straddle and button fold, HU.

$670 FLOP: J 4 7

Hero checks, V1 bets $210, Hero calls.

$1090 TURN: K Hero checks, V1 bets $600.. Hero?

Real question here is that I think his turn bet is rather polarized. I don't think that this is much AK here, could be AA some of the time, but if for value going to be JJ-KK. So if we think hes a bit out of whack with bluffing, whats the best play here?
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Comments

  • AJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
    I’m not a huge fan of a raise. I feel like you’re only repping two combos of KJs. You should have raises on the flop against that sizing. I would call, sometimes your pair outs will be good as well.
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    I feel like this could be KQ here a decent amount. It would make since that he bets this flop with KQ and would check back AK. Also could be AA and sets of JJ and KK. Basically a pretty good board for his 3 bet range.

    You say his bet is polarized here... so you think he would take the weak parts of his range and turn them into bluffs on this board?? I guess I can buy that. What do you think he has here that's weak? Ax wheel suited type hands? low pp that hes turning in to a bluff?

    I guess it really depends on if you think he is 3betting here with the right frequency and if he is I think he has more value on this board than bluffs.

    All that said our hand cant be doing that bad against his range if we can find a few bluffs. we are getting 2.8:1 with a 12 out draw. Im prob calling here.

    I guess if hes decent im planning on leading big on off suit Ts to make us look polarized.
    Not sure how to play the river if we make our flush.... no pros in the games I play so im leading in my games but if you think he will value bet some of his stronger hands we may go for a check raise. This would also give him rope if he is bluffing.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    I like a flop raise.
    One if the best ways to counter small flop betting strategies is to check raise aggressively.

    As played I like a just call unless you think he will make big folding mistakes with one pair hands.

    The more polarized someone is betting the more you are happy to just call with hands with decent showdown value. We can even make the case for calling off a river shove if you think he never goes 3 streets in a 3 bet pot with top pair or over pair.

    The more linear they bet, the worse your flat calls become.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited February 2018
    @Bart
    If your flatting range only includes QQ and AKo/s then your turn range is weaker than his, if you have QQ/KK/AA and your hand then a turn shove becomes a bit more profitable IMO.
    AP
    Because of above and our holdings I think if we shove our value range is pretty narrow thus creating a situation where we’re bluffing too often, I think calling is best and eval river but we shouldn’t bluff here too often on perceived blanks, we can call some rivers but we hold the one most important bluff card in our hand so he’d have to be bluffing with worse Ax and I think he shuts down often enough if you call two streets.
    I’m in the call turn camp and let’s see how it effects his river decision based on eff.stacks.

    Please correct me if I’m wrong, I’m one that jumped of the ship so would like to read responses.
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    If you play around with PIOSolver in these kind of spots you will often see the OOP player raise hands like JT and QJ for protection vs small sizings, especially when the SPR is about 3.5 ("100BB" online pots usually function similar to 4.5). When the SPR becomes smaller protection becomes more important.

    Coming back to the hand, I think I would just go with this on the flop in a vacuum against what I assume is a good player, and go with hands like AJ and QQ if we have them pre sometimes.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    if you think he is fairly polarized you can't shove. for shoving to be profitable we want him to occasionally bet AK/KQ/AA and fold sometimes.

    with your a assumptions it's a call. we are ahead like 20-30% even if it goes xx river.

    I think raise flop is good either against a strategy which includes a lot of small bets with all kind of hands.
  • Sean777 Posts: 356Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    I also think a flop raise is a little better than calling. You can definitely get better to fold in the form of 99, 88, TT etc that is sort of making a protection bet on this J high flop.

    You can even get called by worse in the form of worse diamond draws(rare but possible). In the rare case he has AJ or QQ or something we're basically a coinflip, and if he only calls the flop, we can potentially use an overcard like a K or Q to bluff ourselves instead of being justifiably scared of it on the turn.

    I agree that shoving the turn isn't a great play, given he will never fold a K. I would probably tank call and then tank check on a diamond and hope he bluffed at it, same with a T but with less tanking. On a blank I would check more quickly and hope it goes chk chk and somehow my A high is good, which should be possible if he's over bluffing and repping the K like we think he may be.

    If I made a pair of aces I would probably check-call, if I made a pair of queens I would probably check-fold.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,917AdministratorLeadPro


    Spoiler:
    Hero jams turn, V1 insta mucks


    So this one is definitely interesting. We discussed this hand on Top Section this week. And the conclusion that Conlan made was that we should be calling with our best nut flush draws on the flop and check raising out weakest like A9dd and below. That makes sense as we have a fair amount of showdown value and equity with AQ moving to the turn.

    Also, against optimal betting frequencies, which include betting some bluff hands that beat AQ on the turn, as well as betting QQ and AJ on the turn, jamming turn is very close EV to just calling. But the question we have here is is jamming AQ a good play vs a polarized range? The conclusion is that jam a high equity draw is fine to do vs a polarized range but that polarized range has to include some draws that we also dominate. I'm note sure how often, in this configuration, BB has other types of draws that call off here like lower diamonds and or QTs. The info I got from the villain was that he also had AQ so we got him off of a chop. Also, if we just call turn and river blanks out do we lose the hand? All interesting questions and I am still a bit hazy on what the right answer is here, but I do now that it is rather close either way. I think jamming ATdd is certainly the right play, however, since BB can have a lot of AQ hands.

  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    I was in the camp of check calling his arse all the way..we block a lot of value hands with aq. If that feels uncomfortable then shoving is good because we need to make sure to realize our equity here oop.

    Thanks for posting the results.
    by 1Bart
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