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Huge Limped pot post LATB ante game

BartBart Posts: 5,920AdministratorLeadPro
edited February 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
6 handed around 1am, after the LATB ante game. V1 Ryan Feldman has joined the game. $10k effective. V2 is Chris who played ultra aggro and wild, large three betting frequency, etc. Game is playing $5-$5 with $5 ante.

Fransisco limps, new younger CO overlimps, I limp 5 3 on button. V1 checks sb, V2 BB checks.

FLOP: 7 6 4

V1 leads for $40, V2 calls. Fold Fold, I raise to $200. V1 calls, V2 calls.

$660 TURN: J

V1 checks, V2 checks, I bet $450. V1 calls, V2 calls.

$2010 RIVER: 9

V1 checks, V2 bets $700.. Hero?


If you say just call, are you just calling with 58 as well?


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Comments

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    It seems highly unlikely that chris is using this bet sizing to value bet a hand better than 53. The sizing indicates a blocker bet , or a hand like Jxss that ended up with only top pair. If he ginned the river with T8, I would expect a much larger sizing since double gutters can get paid (in general).

    I like a raise to $2400 / fold to further aggression from either v1 (especially v1 since this would be a river xr against 2 other opponents who are indicating strength on the river) or v2.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,920AdministratorLeadPro
    Yeah, but if this is a block bet from Chris, don't we want the guy behind to call?
  • 8BitJoe Posts: 13Subscriber
    Yeah I think a call might be better. Heads up it's likely raise/fold. I don't know villain, but generally when they block bet in spots like this, they're not calling a raise unless it's tiny or they're particularly terrible/drunk/etc.

    I think it's actually more likely Feldman calls behind thinking Bart can be fairly wide here and V is clearly very wide.
  • 8BitJoe Posts: 13Subscriber
    + we save money when Feldman or this guy do show up with better straights.
  • revisionisthistory Posts: 14Subscriber
    The primary question is, do we make more money by calling & hoping for an overcall from Feldman or do we make more by raising for value and hoping to get looked up by Chris.

    At this point in the hand we have to assume we are good here with the flopped bottom straight. Therefore we have to go for value. So what ranges do we put Feldman and Chris on? Based on the lead out bet by V1 on the flop, call of a raise, and call of a bet on the turn from what is arguably the worst relative position with the given action, I place V1 on a lot of value hands that have good showdown value, solid one pair hands (some with draw potential like gutshots), 2 pair type hands, and even sets. I discount sets just because I would expect to see additional aggression from sets to build a pot on a wet board against hands that are likely to be behind. There is a possibility of some big/nut flush draws like A-4/5 spades, K-x spades (that are hoping to over flush an opponent), and maybe even 8-9 spades.

    Chris is likely to be very wide as (based on what I saw of the broadcast) he was trying to run over the table. He could easily have a busted draw or a hand that backed into 2 pair. His busted draws won't call a raise but his "value" hands may make a crying call based on what V1 does.

    The only hands that raise here (for value) are 5-8 and 8-10. But given the wet nature of the board, we can assume we would have heard from 5-8 by now.

    Conclusion, even if we don't get called when we raise here, we are losing too much value when we would that we HAVE to raise. Bonus, we may get somebody off a chop. Frankly, I think our sizing should be large, $3000 or higher. The only player I know for sure I'm folding to if we get shoved on is V1. I don't think V2 is suicidal, but I saw what appeared to be a spaz factor.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,920AdministratorLeadPro
    What are we going to get called by if we raise to $3000?
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    Think calling is best, we can entertain the thought of raise/folding 58 but I’m not sure it yields more profit, especially when it only blocks fewer nut combos and might lose a call from worse.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited February 2018
    Turn action I think caps both players @ combo draws/sets/2PR. Though it's not impossible 85 is out there, T8 is incredibly unlikely unless they have spades. Raise to 2K & folding makes sense, but can't fault just calling & letting Ryan do something suboptimal.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    MonadPrime said:
    Turn action I think caps both players @ combo draws/sets/2PR. Though it's not impossible 85 is out there, T8 is incredibly unlikely unless they have spades. Raise to 2K & folding makes sense, but can't fault just calling & letting Ryan do something suboptimal.
    Ryan is a sicko, he’s capable of taking 8x and turning into a bluff because of the blocker thing, just throwing it out there.
  • revisionisthistory Posts: 14Subscriber
    Depending on how well we know how our opponents generally think about the game a larger bet sizing could be perceived as being bluffy. I think we are trying to get heroed by a slow/cautiously played set or two pair that puts us on a busted flush or straight draw that played our draw aggressively. And since we can't win at showdown if we did have that hand we raised to take it away from non nut hands.

    The pot is $3410 after a call and if we are confident Ryan will overcall & that we can't get a larger bet called by Chris (presuming Ryan folds to a bet and a raise) we should call. Chris could look us up light easily in this spot given that action.

    I think a call looks a lot stronger than a raise. From Ryan's perspective both look strong, but calling would look stronger imo. Theoretically, Ryan should be folding out almost everything regardless of what we do (since we are not folding). Calling to me screams that I want an overcall. If we hadn't raised and bet the previous 2 streets that may be different. For Ryan to call either a river bet or a raise he would have to be both a) near the top of his non nut range (preferably sets or top 2 pair type hands as we chop with his other most likely value holding, 3-5 & b) think we are raising a weak river lead to steal off a busted draw. That's quite the parlay.

    Chris seems like the type to misread a large bet here, especially if he backed into something. A smaller sizing also looks value heavy.

    Again, this assumes that the opponents are skilled enough to know that a) smaller raises are usually crying to get looked up by players who don't want to fold when getting a "good" price and that b) we are capable of turning a relatively weak made hand or busted draw into a bluff against apparent weakness.

    Fwiw Bart, you always preach about going for gold when you think a player may look you up light and this seems like a golden opportunity with the given action & 3 players in the pot to make your large river raise appear "strong" & get through. Other than a flopped straight our are opponents really going to give us credit for the nut gut shot with the given action?
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    I think its a clear call; Chris (as the BB) can realistically have all 32 offsuit combinations of T8 (double gutter) and 85 (OESD) especially as its 3-way. Other datapoints betting/raising very large into 3 people on the flop and turn, I actually think its really gross but think I still call (cant fold/wont fold)



  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Easy fold imo. He is milking the CLP end boss after hitting his magical double gutter. We are not closing the action either and don't block any of his double gutters

    We can have 85 and a lot of double gutters that rivered a straight ourselves.

    All this being said, fold pre is mandatory imo. 53s has terrible reverse implied odds when it goes 6 ways to the flop which it will a high % of times.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Why does he think neither of you are capable of having t8 here ?

    What is he value betting that isn't a straight on this board in a 6 way pot?

    Why does he think you would ever fold a nutted hand for a 1/3rd pot size bet?

    Find out answers to these questions and more very soon.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I generally iso this pre and probably would still, however, fransico is a fan of the L/rr so i don't hate overlimping. That said, having to raise/fold this hand to a l/rr isn't exactly a disaster.

    IDK know how big a station feldman is but from what i've seen he doesn't love to fold so I'd lean towards call. I think he's the type to just look at the price and probably call with most decent two pair + even though i think that's pretty terrible. I think getting 700 from him sometimes is higher EV than trying to go for value vs Chris. I don't see how chris can ever bet call here unless he has like exactly 77 and even that should be a fold.

    I think our hand is just too weak to get much more value, I think we have to call and hope feldman stations off behind.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    Pretty sure this is just a call. I don't know Chris but would he really be bad/spewy enough to bet/call a worse hand? Maybe I give them too much credit but honestly Bart when you raise flop, bet turn on a board which kind of favor any2 (because they have nut advantage) , you will very rarely very show up with bluffs. your value range is probably 76+, coming to the river.

    I don't see how he can call with less than a straight here if we raise. if we call, there is a chance Ryan hero calls with like 2pair or a set getting crazy odds.

    85s might be close. 8 5 should be a raise at least, hoping he calls 53 ( CLP will tell me 53 should always be a 3bet on the flop but I don't believe that 2000bb deep and a very very dynamic board) but mainly because we block his combodraws and it seems unlikely he calls T8 without spades all that often OTT.
  • revisionisthistory Posts: 14Subscriber
    Other than folding pre as iamallin mentioned, why is everyone so concerned with the possibility of 8-10? We can't be scared of monsters under the bed at this point in the hand with the given action. Let's break it down.

    1) it only a 3 way pot after the flop
    2) the board is very wet/dynamic, flush draw is present, straights and straight draws abound, and the board is full of low cards

    What does this mean? This means that nobody can realistically have 5-8 because anybody with the flopped nuts will either reraise the flop or raise the turn to charge anybody with a drawing hand (weather that be a flush draw, 2 pair, or a higher straight draw).

    What does this mean if I'm a player headed to the turn with 8-10?

    1) in a 3-way pot I'm definitely putting at least one of the other players in the hand on a superior draw/ made hand that can improve (flush draw, 2 pair, sets). As discussed previously I would generally discount sets.

    2) therefore sitting w/ 8-10 and playing it passively (i.e. just to hit your hand) is a horrible proposition with huge reverse implied odds on this flop (i.e. I can hit my hand on the turn and still get outdrawn). Having that draw and facing aggression & putting at least one player on the aforementioned draw, I should be trying to get this pot heads-up so that I can a) represent the flush if it comes in, b) represent the OESD if I hit a pair, & c) hopefully get paid big if I make my hand. Alternatively, I could just fold for those reasons as well add i am nowhere getting the right odds, implied or otherwise if I let another drawing hand stay in

    As Bart, I'm not going to be concerned about getting raised back at with how this hand went down so far as the ranges should be weighted towards higher quality draws and weaker made hands with showdown value.
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    Pre especially with the ante structure and 2 presumably aggressive players in the blinds overlimping > folding > raising. Think the value of position is just enormous deep stacked
  • Stoked Posts: 96Subscriber
    Super interesting hand, have enjoyed reading responses. Bart, I'm hoping this hand will be discussed on the CLP podcast?
  • BartBart Posts: 5,920AdministratorLeadPro
    BTW guys this hand was discussed at length this week in the podcast here: http://www.crushlivepoker.com/podcasts/limped-pot-block-bet
  • JamesSuh Posts: 319Subscriber
    Hey Bart,

    I remember when we played at the same table together, I was in a similar spot with you where there was a multi-way pot and that calling with a strong hand at showdown was the best line.

    http://www.crushlivepoker.com/podcasts/calling-at-showdown-with-a-strong-hand
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