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1/2 River value raise sizing?

psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
edited February 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Might be a boring HH, sorry.

No real history with villain other than him being a clear recreational player.Not super passive, but not super aggressive either, haven't seen him squeeze super aggressively. He's a bit of ABC player. MAWG fwiw. (started the hand with 220)

2 limps, he raises to 17 in the HJ, I flat the CO with J J limpers fold

I can debate ably 3-bet here, but I decide just to flat, I don't expect him to too wide with his iso-raises pre imo. so 3-betting seems awkward against that range.

Flop (38 is meh K 5 7

He checks, I check behind (nothing to say here

Turn is very very good (38) J

He bets 15, this small sizing on the turn screams a hand like AJ, QQ, possibly TT/99. I end up calling, but should I raise turn?

River (68) is the 8

He bets 15, I really feel like this is 99% of the time going to be AJ, QQ here given his sizing. If he has a king, he's probably betting the flop. Given his range is so-capped here at QQ or AJ, how large can we raise here?

Comments

  • BartBart Posts: 5,887AdministratorLeadPro
    In general vs that type of sizing I would raise the turn, say to $45-$50. A lot of the time you are not going to get bet at on the river so flatting turn doesnt accomplish all that much unless you can make up for the missed value on the river with a huge bet.

    Here I would tank and raise it to $100..
  • psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    Sorry to rev this thread, but I was just super busy didn't get a chance to respond.

    Thanks Bart for your feedback

    Spoiler:
    I decided to min-click it back +tax to 40. I was confident given how he was playing he had QQ or AJ, I wasn't sure if these hands can a healthy sized raise, so I decided to raise small. He sigh-called it off pretty quickkly with QQ. Could have gotten more money from this hand?

    On the side note, I thought about raising the turn, but I was worried he was just going to bet-fold QQ or AJ on the turn.
    But that being said maybe I should have raised the turn,as as kinda shown here, still hard to get value from those hands on the river, and these hands might check-river.

  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    I think that as well as growing the size of the pot on the turn, another critical reason is that you will often get much of your value on the turn. The river will frequently come out either a club, ace, queen or some other scare card which you will want to either check or bet smaller on.

    This isnt really a consideration on less dynamic boards like AA3r 9 say, with a hand like AK youre really just raising to make the pot bigger and icnrease the amount of money youll win in total
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 225Subscriber
    I'd mostly raise PF but the call is ok. I think I raise the turn. What would you do if he had just checked? Clearly you'd want to get some money in the pot, right? This small bet is about the same thing, he's just sticking his toe in the water. he's trying to pot control but thinks a check might seem to weak. Don't let him set the price, he's shown some interest so just raise. Don't blow him out of the pot but you have to jack it up. If he folds then so be it. Bart says $45-$50. Okay, I'm down with that.

    On to the River. $86 less rake? Again with the lame $15 bet? Of course you have to raise but how much? $100 seems a little steep. IMO he isn't often going to have anything that will call a bet that big. He might look you up with a Queen or a Jack. Don't get greedy. make it ~$60.
  • psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    Thanks, I do think a raise on the turn was probably be better than just to check to turn. I think the arguments you made a pretty reasonable.

    And briefly, we can exploitatively raise large on the river when we're bluffing and raise small when we are value-betting our hands.

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