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5/5 Bluffcatch AI w/ 99 overpair?

V is a house player who plays limit on the casino's dime, but uses his own $ for no-limit. I've played with him a few times before. Seems to stick to a mostly ABC strat value strat, but we've never played together for more than 1 hr in a single session over maybe 3 or 4 sessions. This happens about 30 min into a new session and this is already my 3rd pf 3bet.

V opens $20 from CO. Hero goes $105 from sb with 9 9 and we're heads up to the flop.

$210

8-3-8 rainbow.

Hero $115, V goes all in for $520 total. Hero?
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Comments

  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    I'd use a smaller sizing on the flop.

    I guess I'd fold, simply because you're crushed by hands like QQ-TT and his range doesnt polarise well versus your hp sizing.
  • QuantumSurfer Posts: 138Subscriber
    Acidhauss said:
    I'd use a smaller sizing on the flop.

    I guess I'd fold, simply because you're crushed by hands like QQ-TT and his range doesnt polarise well versus your hp sizing.
    Yeah, the flop bet was a bit large. I certainly figured QQ-TT was in his range, but doubted that TT/JJ would want to shove because I could have QQ+. So I figured if his value hands were mostly just QQ which I thought might leave enough bluffs to call getting ~2:1. Not sure if he'd want to bluff AK like this or maybe something like 77.
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    I think ranging him is quite hard but the datapoints I'd use to make my decision would be:

    1. A solid player has called my 3bet from the SB in first position.
    2. A solid player is raising my cbet where my range is uncapped.
    3. People as a general rule of thumb do not bluff uncapped ranges.

    Always helpful to go back to preflop! Its very easy to get caught up in ranging someone and neglect a lot of the important preflop datapoints which can make a decision easier. : )

    I think even if he has AK a lot its still close to a fold. You're getting 2:1 as you said so need about 33% equity.

    You have about 70% equity versus AK. You have about 0% ish equity versus an overpair. If he plays all AK that way , and is ripping TT, JJ, QQ your average equity is roughly 35% making it roughly a very break-even call. I would therefore fold,



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