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2/5; 1k eff; Aces facing a river raise from an omc.

HareRee Posts: 130SubscriberProfessional
edited February 8 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2-5; 1k
Hero opens red Aces utg to 25, hj calls (omc)
F: Q T 3, bet 25, quick call
T: Kx bet 100, call
R: Tx, bet 150, min raise to 300. Hero?

How would the sizing change your decision? For example if the raise were 600 or all in?

Comments

  • Beatsme Posts: 555Subscriber
    OMC is pretty broad... ill go off the assumption that its an old nitty guy who just waits for the nuts before committing big money... never value bets thinly... doesn't take in to account his table image

    This seems like a value bet to me more than a bluff just based on the board. We are trying to put him on a busted spade draw I assume? AK AQ are paired up so river raise doesn't make sense. AJ makes broadway so maybe he raises river but I've seen OMCs just call on a high paired board.

    That leaves 7 other combos of A x he could have... ASSUMING he even calls pre with A 7 and below...
    Value combos could be 6 combos of QQ and KK... 1 combo of TT... 1-2 combos of QTs... maybe 1-2 of KTs

    7 bluff combos
    9-11 value combos

    On the surface it looks like a snap call considering the pot odds... but looking deeper I think its a fold. Most of the OMCs i'm familiar with do not bluff a busted draw they just give up. You look strong. You raised preflop and bet every street.

    I just think its pretty optimistic to pick off a bluff here. If any of the OMCs in my game raised me otr im folding this hand for 150 more... 500 more... allin it doesn't matter im mucking.
  • DrSpace Posts: 712Subscriber
    SuperDonkyCrusher said:
    2-5; 1k
    Hero opens red Aces utg to 25, hj calls (omc)
    F: Q T 3, bet 25, quick call
    T: Kx bet 100, call
    R: Tx, bet 150, min raise to 300. Hero?

    How would the sizing change your decision? For example if the raise were 600 or all in?
    pls put the stakes in the title and ty!
  • DrSpace Posts: 712Subscriber
    edited February 8
    purely a live information situation. No way to make intelligent analysis based on cards or math.

    The hand reading is a little tricky as there are no made hands that do not need protection that an OMC would play so passively. If the read is close throw in the chips and say nice hand sir.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,264Subscriber
    This isn't a bluff after you bet the flop and turn especially when your "AK *wink wink*" came in on the turn.

    Wouldnt be surprised if this is QQ. Just calls preflop, slowplays flop, uhoh maybe I'm beat by broadway, ahh boated up lets XR this punk. I see this all the fucking time at the Isles. You are repping all the hands he could have.

    You potted the turn also which is another sign he isn't bluffing. Is he bluffing here 20% of the time for a break even call? AK maybe overplayed. You dont have the A so he might. If you know him and have never seen him do this before I'd lean on folding. if you dont know him I lean more on calling because there is a chance he is just spewing.

    Also there is the consideration of future EV if you fold. Will someone make a move on you later in the session?

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,264Subscriber
    Also question... is there a high hand qualifier? If so now lean more on folding. These wankers are constantly chasing the high hand. I know an OMC who literally only plays for the high hand. If he calls my flop bet I am done unless I have top set or better.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,950SubscriberProfessional
    I think the bet on the turn is a little large, especially into an OMC. Bet smaller for value from Qx. As played, pot odds are enticing. I'll call if I think he plays KQ that way, otherwise fold.
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    I guess I would fold to the raise, as think his hand is consistent with some Tx hand like JT or AT or a slowplayed straight that is scared of the possible boats, but wants to make a small value raise.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    OMC's always have it here
  • HareRee Posts: 130SubscriberProfessional
    Fuzzypup said:
    Also question... is there a high hand qualifier? If so now lean more on folding. These wankers are constantly chasing the high hand. I know an OMC who literally only plays for the high hand. If he calls my flop bet I am done unless I have top set or better.
    No jackpot that I know of this was at the Aria.
  • HareRee Posts: 130SubscriberProfessional
    So perhaps my read that this woman was an omc was off. But generally speaking middle-aged african-american women recs play very conservatively (very omc like) from my experience.

    I tanked and decided to call (I'm a station) because :
    her actions didn't seem deliberate on the turn or river she acted without much thought at all.
    I didn't have the A
    I was getting such a great price on the river.

    She had A5 spades.
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