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The Crush Live PLO Podcast No.39: Finding Your Fold Button

Craig Posts: 604Administrator
TerpHimself examines the art of making big folds in big spots.

Episode Post at 11 AM PST.

http://www.crushlivepoker.com/podcasts/finding-your-fold-button
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Comments

  • High__Rolla Posts: 720Subscriber
    Another great episode, Terp. I wanted point out something about the AAQJ hand where Z7 made a big fold on AhJcTcTh8c board. I may be nitpicky here, but using Hold 'em combos for PLO can sometimes be misleading. If we assume the Villain plays all combos, then substituting Hold 'em combos for PLO works the same. However, this has the effect of assuming the Villain plays hands like 9c7c22 when in actuality he may fold those preflop from the small blind. Fortunately, propokertools allows us to count and this has really helped my game on certain boards.

    For example, here is a comparison of all combos versus assuming Villain only plays the top 25% of hands from the SB:

    Hand - All combos count, 25% range count
    JJ - 820, 405
    TT - 820, 405
    9c7c - 820, 149
    Qc9c - 820, 218


    So, if we assume he plays all four of these hands with the same line, applying a Top 25% range makes it more likely he has JJ or TT than a straight flush. It changes each hand from 25% likely to the following percentages. Essentially, instead of a 3:1 ratio of hands that beat us, it drops it to a 2:1 ratio.

    JJ - 34%
    TT - 34%
    9c7c - 13%
    Qc9c - 19%






  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 260Subscriber
    That is a very good point @High__Rolla . I think that tool is a very effective way to clean up the very confusing business of trying to range someone's starting hands in PLO.

    That math does drop the direct ratio of what beats us. But it doesn't eliminate 97cc either. 2:1 can make this a closer debate, but in-game we have no way to fully run this math (though your point about the suited connectors being folded out of the SB more often than the pairs should be naturally understood by good players).

    I think my overall point with this spot is that in huge live pots like this, we can't get hung up on the direct strength of our hand. Your math makes it a closer decision, but we are still facing three prospective hands that beat us, not matter if the straight flushes are slimmed out. People need to be able to make folds here and that's why I simplified it down to "you have the fourth nuts. Can you not fold the fourth nuts?"

    Thanks for listening and thanks for running these numbers. Very helpful in this discussion.
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