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5/10 Flopped Bottom Set; River-(basically shove) Raise??

Vince Posts: 23Subscriber
Hey guys, so I found myself in a somewhat complicated River spot for my own current level of technique.

• It's a HU pot going into the Turn.
• I have a dynamic with the opponent.
• I start the hand with ~110bb ($1100); he starts with ~100bb ($1000)
• I'm on the button; he's UTG+1
• I have 6 6
• 6 players to the Flop; all players limped (Blinds, UTG+1, HJ, CO, Button [me]); Pre Flop pot = $30

FLOP: J 6 7 (pot is $30)

> Small Blind leads $10 >> BB folds >> UTG+1 clicks it to $20 >> HJ folds >> CO folds >> I flat

— I'm flatting here because of: A) the board texture, and B) the field size heading into the Turn. I'm fine with 3 players as it can potentially be at this point, I'm even happier if it's HU.

"The Dynamic"...I start with ~170bb he starts with ~50bb
I played a pot with him when he just sat down, which would be like 15 hands ago. I had A A in SB and open-raised to $20 and he limp-called from MP 1; 4 players to the flop (Blinds, Opponent and LP limp-caller)
The Flop was = 3 T 8
> I lead 80% pot.
> He click-raises me...remaining players fold.
I just flat. I don't know the guy but I'm not folding AA here, of course, and I don't think b/shoving here is particularly prudent either (b/raise and I'm pot committed on any action, on any street with ~half my stack already in before the Turn, so any b/raise is a "b/shove", imo)
Turn = 8
So the range I'm putting him on given the Flop raise = JJ, TT, 88, AT, passively pre-flop played A K & A Q, A J, K Q, K J, (maybe also) Q J...Like I said, he had just sat down and so I don't know if he's semi-bluffing these spots.
With the -8 peeling on the Turn I'm pretty much taking out 88.
Now there is ~60bb in the pot and he has ~30bb behind.
> He bets 95% of his remaining stack
> I just flat (thinking about it more deeper now and about the stack depths I'm thinking I should have either gotten it in on the Flop or Turn because I'm folding absolutely zero Rivers)
River = K
> He shoves the remaining "pennies" he has and I call...he shows T T

Back to the current hand....

— SB lead bettor b/calls

TURN: J 6 7 Q (Pot is now $90)

> SB checks
> Opponent $50
Here I'm thinking now, "wtf? Would he continue here like this, to this Turn, with 3 players in the pot, one of whom which called behind him...just holding AJ?...for this size??, I'm thinking most likely not... ~65bb pot going into the River with just middle pair???
So I think here if I raise like $150 and he shoves — Given this particular line with this particular history, it's not out of the question to have JJ or 77 here, even QQ!. I mean, I'm not nutty by any means.

>> I mean I beat slow played AA, KK; I beat QJ, I beat AJ and KJ....I lose to JJ, 77, and QQ........so I'm a 5:1 favorite but I'm not a 5:1 favorite against his b/shove range. First of all, I think he's not playing AJ, or KJ this way, or even QJ on the flop like the way he did.

> I just flat.

RIVER: 3 (pot is now $190)

> He bets out $135
What...the...hell is he thinking is going to call that's worse if he just has AA, KK, or AJ at this bet size?
I feel we're both in the commitment zone, especially if I just even click-raise. The line he took makes me really believe he has a better set...so I just flat. I tanked for quite a while actually.


So the question I'm looking for your help on:

Considering the stack sizes on the River here, given the lines taken, and the history, can you find a raise/fold here? Over half my stack will be in the pot. I just feel if I raise the River..."if he calls I win; if he shoves I'm beat"

I know Bart and many others will say, "well you can't think of what you'll do in response to a b/raise until you're b/raised!" but I disagree with that to a large degree because it's not taking into consideration the ramifications of such an action and what that will leave you with if you have to fold. What if I was a bit shorter and would have to raise/fold with 20bb left behind???
I also sort of liken it to "well if you shove with the second nuts only one hand can beat you" so does that mean we should shove with second nuts all the time?

Is click-raise/folding, leaving me 50bb left, good technique?

I could've raised on an earlier street like the Flop. Perhaps he does click-raise with Top-Top. I guess I could've raised the Turn, but I find it difficult to believe a normal player would play AJ on the Flop & Turn that way, given the sequence of actions...I mean I think KJ and JT are folding there on the Turn most of the time because once that -Q peels on the Turn and he bets it decently again, does a player holding KJ or JT thinks he's way ahead?? I don't even know if broadway overs are calling on the Flop a whole lot, even 100bb deep. I think TT and 99 and 88 are definitely folding to his Turn action. I don't believe any sane person at 5/10 would get 100bb in with just a pair.

If I raise the Turn and he does have AJ, AA, or KK, I truly believe they're finding a fold.
Perhaps I could've massaged the pot more and not strictly think in terms of all-or-nothing.
Is this 5/10 player protecting his Single Pair Value Hands (from any bluffs) by playing his "Flopped Top Set, Turned-a-House" hands the same way??
Is this 5/10 player even levelling this deeply???
((LOL this has devolved into me posting a journal entry))

Anyways, let me know if you guys would change anything! Thanks a whole heap!

Vince

Opponent shows: A J

Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,804Subscriber
    edited March 2018
    yea was gonna say to raise turn but calling was betetr but def. shove rivers.

    He can hand read, key part here to me with ur dynamic was dude bet PSB with the nuts putting you on OP, dude goes for value. Once he bets like 1/2 on turn when board gets wetter and brings an overcard, he isnt as strong here or I would take it that way.

    But a key point here is evryone limped pre right? This guy limped AJo? Hes a learned player for sure. This is std UTG range. How can you put him on JJ or QQ? Maybe 77, maybe tht. More then likely he has 2 pair or some kind of draw he is trying to polarize his click back range i guess.

    I would have raised flop as well to the click back once I knew he click backs top set from previous hand.

    sidenote- there is a spoiler option use it for results. posting results right away takes some of the fun out and people could be leaned.

    I like the detail though and format.
  • qbert80 Posts: 52Subscriber
    I understand and appreciate the need for caution in the 2nd hand considering the first one, but his turn action reveals the strength of his hand. Even tho in both hands he bet roughly 50% of pot in both hands on the turn, in absolute dollars a > $300 bet, even at 5/10, screams strength. So when he bets only $50 on turn on wet board, I'm raising here. In other words, I completely agree with neverlearn's assessment.
  • Sonny Posts: 368Subscriber
    edited March 2018
    Not trying to needle or bit a nit picker, but is this $5/10 or $5/5? The sizings you've indicated lead me to believe its $5/5, ie: "6 players to flop with a pot of $30."
    It doesn't make much of a difference, however when taking into consideration the bet sized mentioned it makes me believe he is much weaker if this is $5/10. A bet of $135 on the river in $5/10 isn't much of a bet regardless of the size of the pot, but it is a bigger bet relatively at $5/5 obviously.
  • Vince Posts: 23Subscriber
    neverlearn2 said:
    Once he bets like 1/2 on turn when board gets wetter and brings an overcard, he isnt as strong here or I would take it that way.
    I don't know :???:
    I think, considering the Flop action, I can see AJ+ betting this size on the turn on that board, even on that Turn because I feel it can be a decent size to have TT, maybe 99, KJ and JT to peel one off. I mean, after all, he has the A, the J and Q are on board. I guess T 9 and 9 8 are out there, and perhaps A 6x and A 7x are out there (but to the Flop raise from an EP limper??...if the diamonds or a one-liner gets there on the Turn is he really gonna pay off with just a single split-pair???
    He can follow that up with another small bet on the River to get KJ or JT to make a crying call.
    I also see your point and will consider it deeper and be on the lookout in the future.
    How can you put him on JJ or QQ?
    Well, he didn't raise TT from our previous hand together, I think this has some merit raising in that middle position when folded to. I can definitely see not raising JJ from UTG+1, and I know QQ limping can be a little bizarre, but it's still possible, don't you agree??
    Are you raise/folding here then?
    I do appreciate the insight and can see the value in this perspective and will find out how to integrate it into my current thinking. Thanks!
  • Vince Posts: 23Subscriber
    Sonny said:
    Not trying to needle or bit a nit picker, but is this $5/10 or $5/5? The sizings you've indicated lead me to believe its $5/5, ie: "6 players to flop with a pot of $30."
    It doesn't make much of a difference, however when taking into consideration the bet sized mentioned it makes me believe he is much weaker if this is $5/10. A bet of $135 on the river in $5/10 isn't much of a bet regardless of the size of the pot, but it is a bigger bet relatively at $5/5 obviously.
    So, ok. I can get the Turn-Raise. So when I think about this for myself...I'm shoving all non- -A, -K, -Q Rivers...including diamonds. You think this thinking is a bit too reckless? I see merit in making a "small" value bet to get those Single Split & Pocket pairs to call and even QJ but I also see the merit in just jamming the River when the SPRs are like 1!
  • Vince Posts: 23Subscriber
    Like I mentioned, thinking back on it now, I think a Turn-Raise is better than a Flop-Raise and I guess I can find a Raise/Fold majority of the time. I can consciously say though, that even though I feel like I'm not a mental game fish, I realize I'm not a Zen Master either LOL, so I didn't want to create this "all the momentum swings to him" dynamic and me have to work that much harder for even longer to level the psychological field again. If I played as is...I'm still profiting and increasing my earnings, and yes, I'm missing out on potential value; but to me, that's in a vacuum. I think there's something to be said about protecting against great disturbances and instability in my psychology and emotions going forward being at the same table as this guy after having paid his House off on the earlier hand we played together.

    You guys know how even the slightest negative ripple can greatly, negatively impact a players game.
  • hustlin Posts: 248Subscriber
    As played.

    Would consider raising flop. Pop it 2.5x to like 100 here. Get some value. If your gun shy from the AA hand than calling is reasonable too.

    On the turn. I like the call. Q is a bad card for both ranges against Jx for value.by calling gives you more room / flexibility on the river.
    If was a card below J I would probably b raising here.


    On river. Raise fold for value. Make it like 2.3x to like $300. This maximizes your value from AA,KK. Jx , etc.
    If you get re raised all in you can fold caus weighted to like 77, JJ etc
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