Hey guys, so I found myself in a somewhat complicated River spot for my own current level of technique.
• It's a HU pot going into the Turn.
• I have a dynamic with the opponent.
• I start the hand with ~110bb ($1100); he starts with ~100bb ($1000)
• I'm on the button; he's UTG+1
• I have 6♥ 6♦
• 6 players to the Flop; all players limped (Blinds, UTG+1, HJ, CO, Button [me]); Pre Flop pot = $30
FLOP: J♦ 6♣ 7♥ (pot is $30)
> Small Blind leads $10 >> BB folds >> UTG+1 clicks it to $20 >> HJ folds >> CO folds >> I flat
— I'm flatting here because of: A) the board texture, and B) the field size heading into the Turn. I'm fine with 3 players as it can potentially be at this point, I'm even happier if it's HU.
"The Dynamic"...I start with ~170bb he starts with ~50bb
I played a pot with him when he just sat down, which would be like 15 hands ago. I had A♠ A♣ in SB and open-raised to $20 and he limp-called from MP 1; 4 players to the flop (Blinds, Opponent and LP limp-caller)
The Flop was = 3♣ T♥ 8♥
> I lead 80% pot.
> He click-raises me...remaining players fold.
I just flat. I don't know the guy but I'm not folding AA here, of course, and I don't think b/shoving here is particularly prudent either (b/raise and I'm pot committed on any action, on any street with ~half my stack already in before the Turn, so any b/raise is a "b/shove", imo)
Turn = 8♠
So the range I'm putting him on given the Flop raise = JJ, TT, 88, AT, passively pre-flop played A♥ K♥ & A♥ Q♥, A♥ J♥, K♥ Q♥, K♥ J♥, (maybe also) Q♥ J♥...Like I said, he had just sat down and so I don't know if he's semi-bluffing these spots.
With the -8 peeling on the Turn I'm pretty much taking out 88.
Now there is ~60bb in the pot and he has ~30bb behind.
> He bets 95% of his remaining stack
> I just flat (thinking about it more deeper now and about the stack depths I'm thinking I should have either gotten it in on the Flop or Turn because I'm folding absolutely zero Rivers)
River = K♣
> He shoves the remaining "pennies" he has and I call...he shows T♠ T♦
Back to the current hand....
— SB lead bettor b/calls
TURN: J♦ 6♣ 7♥ Q♦ (Pot is now $90)
> SB checks
> Opponent $50
Here I'm thinking now, "wtf? Would he continue here like this, to this Turn, with 3 players in the pot, one of whom which called behind him...just holding AJ?...for this size??, I'm thinking most likely not... ~65bb pot going into the River with just middle pair???
So I think here if I raise like $150 and he shoves — Given this particular line with this particular history, it's not out of the question to have JJ or 77 here, even QQ!. I mean, I'm not nutty by any means.
>> I mean I beat slow played AA, KK; I beat QJ, I beat AJ and KJ....I lose to JJ, 77, and QQ........so I'm a 5:1 favorite but I'm not a 5:1 favorite against his b/shove range. First of all, I think he's not playing AJ, or KJ this way, or even QJ on the flop like the way he did.
> I just flat.
RIVER: 3♠ (pot is now $190)
> He bets out $135
What...the...hell is he thinking is going to call that's worse if he just has AA, KK, or AJ at this bet size?
I feel we're both in the commitment zone, especially if I just even click-raise. The line he took makes me really believe he has a better set...so I just flat. I tanked for quite a while actually.
So the question I'm looking for your help on:
Considering the stack sizes on the River here, given the lines taken, and the history, can you find a raise/fold here? Over half my stack will be in the pot. I just feel if I raise the River..."if he calls I win; if he shoves I'm beat"
I know Bart and many others will say, "well you can't think of what you'll do in response to a b/raise until you're b/raised!" but I disagree with that to a large degree because it's not taking into consideration the ramifications of such an action and what that will leave you with if you have to fold. What if I was a bit shorter and would have to raise/fold with 20bb left behind???
I also sort of liken it to "well if you shove with the second nuts only one hand can beat you" so does that mean we should shove with second nuts all the time?
Is click-raise/folding, leaving me 50bb left, good technique?
I could've raised on an earlier street like the Flop. Perhaps he does click-raise with Top-Top. I guess I could've raised the Turn, but I find it difficult to believe a normal player would play AJ on the Flop & Turn that way, given the sequence of actions...I mean I think KJ and JT are folding there on the Turn most of the time because once that -Q peels on the Turn and he bets it decently again, does a player holding KJ or JT thinks he's way ahead?? I don't even know if broadway overs are calling on the Flop a whole lot, even 100bb deep. I think TT and 99 and 88 are definitely folding to his Turn action. I don't believe any sane person at 5/10 would get 100bb in with just a pair.
If I raise the Turn and he does have AJ, AA, or KK, I truly believe they're finding a fold.
Perhaps I could've massaged the pot more and not strictly think in terms of all-or-nothing.
Is this 5/10 player protecting his Single Pair Value Hands (from any bluffs) by playing his "Flopped Top Set, Turned-a-House" hands the same way??
Is this 5/10 player even levelling this deeply???
((LOL this has devolved into me posting a journal entry))
Anyways, let me know if you guys would change anything! Thanks a whole heap!
Opponent shows: A♦ J♠