Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

$2/$3, Straddled pot, Hero floats donk lead then turns monster draw, please help MAX EV

Chase Posts: 60Subscriber
Game is $2/$3 $3-$300 at local casino, $300 cap. Tuesday night.

Villain: Middle-aged white guy I don't recognize. Polo shirt, shorts, flashy watch. New to the table and he tried to buy in for $500 thinking it was $3/$5 game. Seems like a rec player.

Villain is UTG ($325 effective) and asks if straddle is allowed and then straddles $6.

Hero first to act with A 9 open to $16, Villain calls.


FLOP ($~30): T 8 6

V quickly bets $25, Hero ?

I thought about raising here because I don't think a guy of this description is ever leading fast here with two-pair-plus. I think for made hands he has AT at best, but overall his range for donking $25 fast is weak (many flush draws, TX, some 8X, stuff like 77, probably some gutters like QJ, etc).

I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on:

- Do you think raising the flop is the highest EV line, and, how does the EV of raising compare to the EV of floating?
- If you think raising is the best play, is raising a much better play than floating, or is raising only slightly higher EV?

- Do you agree that his donking range here is very unlikely to be two-pair-plus?
- If we are confident his donking range is weak here, is that enough to make raising the flop clearly the best line? ( EXAMPLE: Hero raises to $100 and if villain calls and chk turn then Hero jams turn for about a pot-sized bet on turns where Hero picks up equity. )

Hero calls,

TURN ($80): T 8 6 J

V quickly bets $45, Hero ?

Is MAX EV play just call or semi-bluff here?

As played, calling seems best here because:
(1) I'm unsure how much fold equity a turn raise is going to have here. I don't really have a strong read on this guy. How likely this guy is to bet-fold the turn here? What parts of his range are we are targeting to get to fold? Also, my read that his flop-donking range is weak is also tentative.
(2) Our diamond outs will likely be hidden to him and maybe the Q too so our implied odds can be high here.
(3) By calling turn we can very credibly rep the front-door-flush when we brick the river but the front-door-flush comes in, and he is likely going to have a very tough call to make.
(4) For semi-bluffing to be the best play, the EV of semi-bluffing has to be greater than the EV of calling, and calling is clearly plus EV because the immediate pot-odds are laying us a great price to call (a little less than 3-1) with our combo-draw (that could have as many as 18 clean outs), and we seemingly have good implied-odds by calling, and by raising we sometimes get reraised, and we will be priced in to call but we aren't happy about it.

Thanks for your help!

Results:
Spoiler:
Hero calls,

RIVER ($170): T 8 6 J 3

V sighs, then says all in, I fold,


Comments

  • CycleV Posts: 679Subscriber
    As played, postflop you put $70 in over two streets. You probably could have done the same thing by raising the flop and if you want to, checking the turn. This would have added at least some FE. The catch is that idk how much FE we have against this guy as you described him. But paying 70 with some FE is better than paying without it.
  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    I think that’s a pretty weak hand to be raising PF from that position. It’s going to lead to tough spots OOP and it’s also much tougher to get paid off when you hit if you’re OOP.

    You kind of lucked out by ending up against one of the players you had position on.

    I’m ok with the flop call, just to see. On the turn, I’m curious to hear other views. I’d probably make a big raise or shove, but not sure.
  • Sonny Posts: 298Subscriber
    Prefolp: A 9 from UTG +1 is a fold. Not even debatable. Not only that but sizing is poor. $6 to $16? If you are going to raise the straddle next to act I think you need to go to $25 minimum.
    Flop: We have a got shot that isn't to the nuts, a backdoor flush draw, and an overcard with a pretty bad kicker.
    When he donks into the PFR this is usually top pair, or a flush draw. Even if it is just a spade draw, we can still very easily be behind. So its probably a fold here also.
    Turn: Just a math problem. $78 or so in the pot $45 to call. If we give him a lowly K10 than I guess you're getting a ok price to draw because your Ace is live. However if he has A10 our Ace is dead an we're not getting a good price. So this is probably just a fold also.

    I'm certianly not trying to be hard on you or anything man, but $1/3 is a pretty easy once you stop overcomplicating it. Get it in as a massive favorite, you'll get called. These marginal, pretty neutral, spots just create unnecessary swings. You can easily find a better spot to get your money in than here.
  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    (Also, is Talking Stick in Arizona? The game sounds identical.)
  • Chase Posts: 60Subscriber
    edited March 14
    Fletch23 said:
    I think that’s a pretty weak hand to be raising PF from that position. It’s going to lead to tough spots OOP and it’s also much tougher to get paid off when you hit if you’re OOP.

    You kind of lucked out by ending up against one of the players you had position on.
    Sonny said:
    Prefolp: A 9 from UTG +1 is a fold. Not even debatable...
    I raised here not because I held A9s. I agree that in some generic circumstances, A9s UTG full ring may not be a +EV open. In this specific situation, I thought it was +EV because I wanted to isolate the straddler who seemed weak, and I actually thought I had a decent shot at getting through the field (even for $16) because I had a tight image and the table as a whole had been playing nitty before the flop for the last few rounds. So, I expected a $16 raise to get through the field a majority of the time (given they have been playing tight, I have a tight image, and I'm raising UTG over a straddle which tends to be perceived as a lot of strength in these games). Given that situation, I thought A9s had sufficient showdown-equity (in combination with my expected fold equity) to make the open immediately +EV and likely to lead to many +EV spots after the flop. I made it $16, only $10 more, to encourage the straddle to call and play a HU pot with me OOP with an inferior range.
    Sonny said:
    ...Flop: We have a got shot that isn't to the nuts, a backdoor flush draw, and an overcard with a pretty bad kicker.
    When he donks into the PFR this is usually top pair, or a flush draw. Even if it is just a spade draw, we can still very easily be behind. So its probably a fold here also...
    When a weak player with a weak range leads into me, I'm not inclined to fold. I don't think this guy is donking TP+ much, and very rarely TP with a good kicker, but maybe it's a bad read. I think his range is a lot of one-pair hands weaker than top pair, draws of varying strength, and some weak top-pairs.
    Sonny said:
    ....I'm certianly not trying to be hard on you or anything man, but $1/3 is a pretty easy once you stop overcomplicating it...
    My friend, we're having this discussion in a strategy forum, getting complicated is what we do here. With most hands discussed, there is merit to various plays, and we are trying to figure out which plays have the most merit (the highest EV). Most people here are sincerely trying to learn and improve. Let's foster open-minded inquiry and dispense with a "know-it-all" attitude.
    Fletch23 said:
    (Also, is Talking Stick in Arizona? The game sounds identical.)
    Yes
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    edited March 15
    Preflop police here, would fold pre.

    Flop I would just fold - the way I like to think of donk bets is that the recreational player has connected with the board in some way. For example a flush draw, top pair and a draw or similar.

    I think 100BB effective (1/3/6) I would call but 50BB effective I think its just a fold facing a nearly pot sized bet.
  • CycleV Posts: 679Subscriber
    Also an easy fold pre for me, only on a passive table would I limp, but that's rare
Sign In or Register to comment.