Game is $2/$3 $3-$300 at local casino, $300 cap. Tuesday night.
Villain: Middle-aged white guy I don't recognize. Polo shirt, shorts, flashy watch. New to the table and he tried to buy in for $500 thinking it was $3/$5 game. Seems like a rec player. Villain is UTG ($325 effective) and asks if straddle is allowed and then straddles $6.
Hero first to act with A♦ 9♦ open to $16, Villain calls.
FLOP ($~30): T♠
6♦V quickly bets $25, Hero ?
I thought about raising here because I don't think a guy of this description is ever leading fast here with two-pair-plus. I think for made hands he has AT at best, but overall his range for donking $25 fast is weak (many flush draws, TX, some 8X, stuff like 77, probably some gutters like QJ, etc).
I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on:
- Do you think raising the flop is the highest EV line, and, how does the EV of raising compare to the EV of floating?
- If you think raising is the best play, is raising a much better play than floating, or is raising only slightly higher EV?
- Do you agree that his donking range here is very unlikely to be two-pair-plus?
- If we are confident his donking range is weak here, is that enough to make raising the flop clearly the best line? ( EXAMPLE: Hero raises to $100 and if villain calls and chk turn then Hero jams turn for about a pot-sized bet on turns where Hero picks up equity. )Hero calls,
TURN ($80): T♠
J♦V quickly bets $45, Hero ?
Is MAX EV play just call or semi-bluff here?
As played, calling seems best here because:
(1) I'm unsure how much fold equity a turn raise is going to have here. I don't really have a strong read on this guy. How likely this guy is to bet-fold the turn here? What parts of his range are we are targeting to get to fold? Also, my read that his flop-donking range is weak is also tentative.
(2) Our diamond outs will likely be hidden to him and maybe the Q too so our implied odds can be high here.
(3) By calling turn we can very credibly rep the front-door-flush when we brick the river but the front-door-flush comes in, and he is likely going to have a very tough call to make.
(4) For semi-bluffing to be the best play, the EV of semi-bluffing has to be greater than the EV of calling, and calling is clearly plus EV because the immediate pot-odds are laying us a great price to call (a little less than 3-1) with our combo-draw (that could have as many as 18 clean outs), and we seemingly have good implied-odds by calling, and by raising we sometimes get reraised, and we will be priced in to call but we aren't happy about it.
Thanks for your help!
RIVER ($170): T♠ 8♠ 6♦ J♦ 3♣
V sighs, then says all in, I fold,