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After Never Having a Losing Week...

I've been playing full time (40 hrs a week or so) since mid November. I've been playing about 90% 2/5 with a little 5/10 mixed in. Up until March, I never had a losing week. Some weeks were very marginal, but none were in the red. The second week of March was my first official losing week. Since then, I can now announce that March is my first losing month. In 173 hours I managed to lose $1918.

I realize that downswings and long periods of break even are inevitable in poker, but I'm beginning to wonder if maybe Nov-Feb was more of a heater than anything else and that the reality of my true winrate is setting in. I spoke to a couple of pros at one casino I frequent. They had similar answers in that when playing online and higher stakes, downswing/break even periods like this are to be expected, and can often be much worse. However, most 2/5 live games are soft enough that a losing month should be very rare, possibly non-existent.

Obviously no one here can answer whether or not I am just experiencing the downside of variance based on only playing 4.5 months and not knowing how I play. I was, however, hoping to get some feedback from others who play 100 hrs a month or so. Has anyone experience this type of downswing/break even period over 4-5 weeks and still managed to come out 8-10 bb/hr at year's end?

Comments

  • AJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
    A two buyin downswing? It gets worse. So much worse.
    by 1CycleV
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    Appreciate the feedback. If you factor that the first week of march was a winner, it's closer 8-9 buy-ins.
  • ddz Posts: 150SubscriberProfessional
    I think never having a losing week in all those hours is an indication u were running hot.

    Go to 2+2. Go to live low-stakes nl forum. Look at the official winrates and finances thread. Lots of graphs and stats. That will give you a better idea of where you lie in the spectrum of results
    by 1CycleV
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    ^^ Appreciate this. Thanks.
  • Fletch23 Posts: 115Subscriber
    What’s your overall BB/hr, including the downswing?

    I’m no pro, but from what I’ve read, I think 10ish is about the maximum you can expect, so if you were like 10-12 before the downswing, you were probably running unsustainably hot.

    Also, a lot of your wins and losses are a few big hands. So try to think about the circumstances of those. Suck outs? Coolers? Or hands you misplayed?

    If I were playing full time I’d probably keep track of every big pot I played and categorize it in some way so I could know how much is my play and how much is luck. You could also track something easy like how often your pairs make sets and how much you’re getting paid when they do.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    Try a 10 or 20 BI downswing where your sets win 40% of the time. Where you miss your 50% equity draws 75% of the time. Now repeat for several hundred hours live. That's variance.
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