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Plague of Euros. Good adjustment example?

z7 Posts: 225Subscriber
So there’s a big group of euros that are coming into our plo game. They all know each other and most are shady. Going north shorting pots etc etc. however, they are all pretty good balanced players. They travel the world sucking casinos dry.

Now V in question is one of them, probably one of the better ones. 5/5/10 rock 1700 effective.

V Rock on the button. Folds to me in CO. I make it 40 with KK32. V 3-bets to 140. I call.

Flop (290) AT4 rainbow. I have a bdfd. H check V bets 125. So V’s 3-betting range is pretty wide since he is in position. I very well could have the best hand. All of them 3-bet decent 4 card hands and good 3 card hands in position. QJT2 T876 etc. But this is a decision point, do I just play super weak and give up every time I don’t hit or do I adjust and try to target his wider range on later streets?

Plan was on broadway cards use my KK blockers and bet. Wheel card that gives me a fd bet. Any 5 gives me the nuts. And depending on the card that gives me a fd evaluate. K continue.

So I call. Turn (540): J completing rainbow.

H leads 275. V calls.

River (1090) 9x: H bets 650.

Thoughts? Good adjustments to players who have played a ton of online and study GTO? If this was a rec I’d fold pre or give up flop.
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Comments

  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 303Subscriber
    I like the attack line here. You hit a perfect bluff card and decided to fire twice. As long as you're sticking to a sizing that matches what you've been value betting in this game, you should push out almost everything on the river unless he decides to soul read you with AAKx or AAQQ or maybe he backed into AQT8 and calls.

    So I like the line b/c I think it works vs a good player, and if you do get called lighter, you help your image, clarifies his read on you, and also get a better feel for his calling ranges on rivers.
  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,309Pro
    Pre - If I thought there was a good chance of getting 3 bet pre I might have folded bad KK there (probably not tho), and also would fold a lot when 3 bet. Its just a really tough hand to play well out of position to a good player especially when his range has a large advantage over our actual hand.

    As played. While your plan is well thought out, I'm not sure the point. Do you really want to get into a lot of high variance spots with one of the better players - who goes north and may or may not be sharing bankrolls with others? How do you expect him to react if you start doing more things like this?

    Flop goes check call on a flop that hits his range, but also hits the range you would lead call pre with. Would you really lead call pre with good AA? Seems like he can take a lot of them out of your range especially if he has an A. Dont you have some percent of your value range you would check raise here on flop? He should think you have some mix of strong made hands, weak made hands, and draws (with and without some showdown value)

    So then when you lead turn - what does his call say about his range when he calls? Leading here is something people do for a limited set of reasons - which rarely include a blocker bluff in this spot, so he is going to think you have a showdown value hand a decent percent of the time. How much of his calling range here contains hands where he things he is beat and needs to draw to win? Its all well and good to say he has balanced play but I really doubt he is calling here without showdown value a decent percent of his calling range (which by the way the middle rundowns part of his range pick up a lot of 2 pair + draws with the J).

    I dont think he has enough hands in his range that he will fold on the river for this to work.. I put this in pokerjuice giving us a first in 25% range but not a 3% 4 bet range (so we dont have our very best hands) and gave him a probably too wide 15% 3 bet range. Then I looked at how that hit his range and 48% of the range villain went to the flop with has a A with at least JT - syntax is a:(jt+). That also includes KQ kinds of hands so its not just 2 pair. FWIW a:(98+) is another 27% of his range. Unless he views you as someone who would never lead river with anything less than a set o better I dont think he folds enough.

    If your goal is to make a stand and not just play passive out of position, perhaps check raise flop is a better line. Same or close to the same $ for us to check raise flop vs call and lead turn , will work a lot of the time and will be really easy to get away from if we are re raised and really narrows down his range if we are called.

    I dont hate your line and you do have the gutshot and other ways to win on the turn but is the reward really worth the added variance, not just in this hand but in how he will adjust in other hands? Im not sure. To be honest I dont play with enough people that fit this villains description. I would be surprised if he really is as balanced as you say, as I just dont see that often live, but if you are right - were you planning to show the bluff if he folds?
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