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good old "frequency call vs exploitative fold" problem

maphacks Posts: 1,917Subscriber
10-20, 9k effective

hero 60 HJ Q J , BU good player call, BB 400, hero call , BU call

flop (1200)

Q 3 2 BB x, hero? x, BU x

turn (1200) 8 BB 900, hero call, BU fold

river (3000) 5 villain 2400, hero?

flop is worth discussing. bet is definitely valid, just wasn't sure how to handle xr but in retrospect I would say that not a big concern and protection is a thing here.

river I find it quite hard for villain to come up with enough bluffs. on the other hand we are pretty high up in our range. I expect villain to cbet most bd fd/bd sd type hands which only leaves some few Axs flop give ups and pure airball turn+river barrells. maybe AK but I would guess he is more likely to triple barrell if he wants to go for it.

if we fold QJ, are we calling AQ/KQs since we block AA/KK?

I would probably play JJ/TT/99 that way up to the river which are kind of trivial folds IMO

Comments

  • iamallin Posts: 1,144SubscriberProfessional
    edited April 12
    It is strange to me that he checks this flop ..I don't mind making an exploitative fold here
    ..pretty sure this flop will be bet at high frequency in most Sims as the 3 bettor ..so checks seem fishy to me..in that they are likely to be too value heavy ime


    Also I can't help but notice the 3 bet size pre. .that is monstrous ...we should be playing very snug against that size ..we also have poor relative position in the hand ...qjs is the worst queen we will have here ..I also don't think we should call turn with all of jj tt and 99 because he is almost always betting river again when he bets turn here
  • SuperDonkyCrusher Posts: 119SubscriberProfessional
    I'd prefer calling with AQ over KQ.. I think it's more likely he checks flop with AA than KK so we don't need to block it as much.

    I think having a J is potentially a bad card to have. I guess it depends on how he's constructing his bluff range on the river. If we're assuming he'd cbet his BDFD/BDSD hands on the flop then the best candidates would be the AK-ATs since they have a two way BDSD/BDFS.

    So if we're removing a lot of that from his range then I would think that his best bluffs would be something like: JTs, T9s, J9s.

    How do you think villain views your check back range?
  • hustlin Posts: 35Subscriber
    Damn this is a pretty sick spot . Feel your pain.

    Gut says got to call off here and keep him honest.

    If villain does check back AA,KK on this texture OOP. Than I think it's ok to fold than.
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 547Subscriber
    Should we really bet anything on this type of flop? It's kind of hard to balance a flop bet with enough bluffs and our checking range would be fairly weak. This was already alluded to when we think about what we do with JJ TT 99 - trivial fold - when V double barrels turn and river. So I personally don't mind the check flop line.

    AP, think we have to call river? It is a rather large bet relative to the pot size. Think we can come up with some bluffs, namely AKhh, AJhh, T9hh, JThh, J9hh (I'm kind of iffy giving him the last three as those may bet flop). He most definitely has some AA/KK/QQ, but he's also going to bet those some percent of the time on the flop. It seems like a close EV spot, so folding or calling can't be too wrong either way.
  • ConlanMa Posts: 180Pro
    @maphacks this is a problem I struggle with as well - I was actually pretty disappointed in my play this past Friday because I thought I was overfolding and making exploits that were too large. I think you are correct in saying that this line should be rarely a bluff. I would also not say its not correct never a bluff. The framework I personally use to try resolve this what I refer to as a modified optimal strategy. Specifically, the process I would use to think through this spot is:

    1) Identify what your optimal calls you think should be are in a certain spot. Likely on this river, this would like be any Qx, probably some of your better pocket pairs with no heart in it at a low frequency.
    2) Figure out what the likely value and bluffs are going to be on the turn: in this case, the value region would be AA/KK/QQ and bluffs would probably be AJ/AKhh, small partials of AKo/AKs and A5/A4s that didn't bet the flop in limited partials.
    3) Identify your range for calling turn and getting to the river: probably full combos of QJs, QTs, 88 and partials of AQ, AQs, KQs, and rare sets. AQ combos probably bet the flop quite a bit as they block slowplays and can get multiple streets of value. KQs can also be bet some of the time. Pocket pairs 99+ probably have to call turn as well.
    4) Figure out what your equilibrium calls are and pick the best combos that block value, unblock bluffs and are at the top of your range for calling. I would think AQ, KQs combos would all fit the bill for calling (with having the Ah being an exploitative fold). QJs would like also be in the calling region given that it unblocks bluffs and the primary Qx hand in your range.
    5) Another option is to sometimes turn your hand into a bluff. You have a bluff catcher and you're blocking the nut hand would take this line (you also don't have many bluffs in this spot).
  • DrSpace Posts: 610Subscriber
    This is usually not a call preflop if the bb is a good player doing this with a professional range with big sizing due to stacks. It is too much of a RIO hand and puts us in spots facing large bets with a polarized range with medium strength bluff catchers. It has too much range interference with a good bb raising range.
    If we know a lot about the bb and their tendencies then we can call but it still rough as we have to act first and a good player is on the button deep.

    But we have no information given about the bb's strategy that is what matters most.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 106Pro
    I would call here preflop even vs a fairly large sizing given that we are so deep and QJs plays well postflop on a lot of boards.
    I think we can make a case for betting and checking the flop. Betting is pretty thin given that it’s hard to get value from worse, and it’s going to be 2 streets of value at most even vs worse hands like TT/99x. We also have the BT to act behind us. I think QJs plays better on later streets as a check. I prefer checking, but I can possibly get onboard with betting. As for the river, QJ seems like a call based on the fact that we are blocking QQ and this is one of our stronger hands to arrive on the river like this. Having said that, my experience in spots like this is that this line is rarely taken as a bluff. Of course we can’t fold all of our bluff catchers. I would lean towards only calling with our stronger bluff catchers like KQ and AQ without hearts that blocks AA/KK and unblocks hearts, and lean towards folding QJ, even if it’s “correct” to call with QJs here. We would be technically somewhat exploitable by folding QJs here, but I wouldn’t worry too much about villains running me over here because I fold QJs.
  • DrSpace Posts: 610Subscriber
    edited April 19
    KiLee said:
    I would call here preflop even vs a fairly large sizing given that we are so deep and QJs plays well postflop on a lot of boards.
    I think we can make a case for betting and checking the flop. Betting is pretty thin given that it’s hard to get value from worse, and it’s going to be 2 streets of value at most even vs worse hands like TT/99x. We also have the BT to act behind us. I think QJs plays better on later streets as a check. I prefer checking, but I can possibly get onboard with betting. As for the river, QJ seems like a call based on the fact that we are blocking QQ and this is one of our stronger hands to arrive on the river like this. Having said that, my experience in spots like this is that this line is rarely taken as a bluff. Of course we can’t fold all of our bluff catchers. I would lean towards only calling with our stronger bluff catchers like KQ and AQ without hearts that blocks AA/KK and unblocks hearts, and lean towards folding QJ, even if it’s “correct” to call with QJs here. We would be technically somewhat exploitable by folding QJs here, but I wouldn’t worry too much about villains running me over here because I fold QJs.
    "I would call here preflop even vs a fairly large sizing given that we are so deep and QJs plays well postflop on a lot of boards." Why ? What is the analysis other than intuition ? Recall the configuration as well.
    It is not an optimal call by any analysis I can find or do. It looks close but losing. Given that its a tough spot IMO.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,917Subscriber
    I don't see how we can fold pre. it's not uncommon to use such a sizing 450bb deep.

    I think even for worldclass players (which he might be) it's very hard to come up with a reasonable amount of bluffs here. it seems very unlikely for him to give up on the flop and then change his mind and turn like AK,AJ into a bluff. A5s/A4s is betting flop very very often I would guess. (also A4s beats me and A5s has a tiny tiny bit of showdown value and might check). T9 or J9 has all kinds of backdoors on the flop so I would expect him to cbet those most of the time as well.

    that leave complete airballs like KJ/ATo etc.

    so I am not saying he doesn't have bluffs but I come to the conclusion we should only call our very best bluffcatchers, which is KQ,AQ. since it's 3ways OTT and we "share" responsibility of defending enough I don't even think we overfold that much.
  • DrSpace Posts: 610Subscriber
    edited April 20
    maphacks said:
    I don't see how we can fold pre. it's not uncommon to use such a sizing 450bb deep.

    I think even for worldclass players (which he might be) it's very hard to come up with a reasonable amount of bluffs here. it seems very unlikely for him to give up on the flop and then change his mind and turn like AK,AJ into a bluff. A5s/A4s is betting flop very very often I would guess. (also A4s beats me and A5s has a tiny tiny bit of showdown value and might check). T9 or J9 has all kinds of backdoors on the flop so I would expect him to cbet those most of the time as well.

    that leave complete airballs like KJ/ATo etc.

    so I am not saying he doesn't have bluffs but I come to the conclusion we should only call our very best bluffcatchers, which is KQ,AQ. since it's 3ways OTT and we "share" responsibility of defending enough I don't even think we overfold that much.
    Why ? What is the analysis other than intuition ? Recall the configuration as well.
    It is not an optimal call by any analysis I can find or do. It looks close but losing. Given that its a tough spot IMO.

    I am not saying its a slam dunk fold but it is very likely a losing call and everyone is assuming its an obvious call. Optimal analysis shows it losing and the configuration is not favorable.
  • Benjamin Posts: 14Subscriber
    @maphacks him checking the flop breaks the solver. What is your best guess as to villain’s squeezing range and what is your squeeze calling range here? I think this hand is very interesting and would like to further analyze it.

    Thanks
  • Benjamin Posts: 14Subscriber
    @DrSpace what range do you think villain has pf? What range would you recommend for hero pf?

    Thanks
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