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5/10 NLH Deep -- What is P2 to do with top two?

DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
edited April 15 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Player one (P1) -- tough professional. Player 2 (P2) tough professional. They know each other and their games. Player REC3 is a weak recreational player who has lost a bunch this session and week. He currently is down to 1k after recently losing a big flip where the money got in on the flop in a reasonable way. He is sticky and will stack off light with a decent piece of the board.

P1 opens (3.5K) high jack 50 over a limp, P2 (3.1K) flats with K ♦️ J ♦️ cutoff , REC3 calls button.

Pot ($165) Flop K ♥️ 8 ♠️ 6 ♦️.

✔️ ✔️ button player REC3 looked interested on the flop for anyone watching and REC3 bets $80. P1 calls, P2 calls.

Pot ($405) Turn K ♥️ 8 ♠️ 6 ♦️ J ♥️
✔️ ✔️ REC3 bets $300
P1 puts out a stack of black raises to $1400 without verbalizing.

Action is on P2?

Comments welcome on all actions.
Tagged:

Comments

  • DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
    edited April 15
  • BartBart Posts: 5,238AdministratorLeadPro
    I assume that P2 is on the button? If P3 is truly is weak I could see P2 putting a ton of pressure on him and or possible even valuing something worse than KJ. With 1/2 his stack committed I would most likely just get this this in.
  • hustlin Posts: 114Subscriber
    Can't possibley seem to find a fold.
    Calling seems ok. Like jamming get value from flush/straight draws.

    don't see really what we losing to here.
  • MXRider Posts: 53Subscriber
    very curious as to what P1 thinks of P2s overcall on the flop to be putting this raise in on the turn.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    What is REC3 stack?

    P2 should consider donking turn imo. REC player is unlikely to see through the donk as a value heavy range but may check back turn some times.



    If REC3 has less than 1500, then I am stacking off here as I expect P1 to push his draws.

    If REC3 has 3k behind, then I would make a nitty fold here as I do not think P1 will choose this size with his draws

    by 1hustlin
  • DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
    MXRider said:
    very curious as to what P1 thinks of P2s overcall on the flop to be putting this raise in on the turn.
    P1 thinks he is still quite wide. P2 ✔️ flop and REC3 bet small as P1 expected. I am not sure if P1 saw that REC3 had preloaded but he might well have. P2 is a good professional and knows P1 protects his range so I am sure that P2 can have all kinds of things given the price. I believe P1 can and should isolate the button with even a weak value hand on this card, even high equity draws that are very profitable to isolate.
  • DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
    iamallin said:
    What is REC3 stack?

    P2 should consider donking turn imo. REC player is unlikely to see through the donk as a value heavy range but may check back turn some times.



    If REC3 has less than 1500, then I am stacking off here as I expect P1 to push his draws.

    If REC3 has 3k behind, then I would make a nitty fold here as I do not think P1 will choose this size with his draws

    Donking is a fine play normally. It was pretty clear the button was going to pot commit himself though and would never fold after betting the turn. The ✔️ back frequency is not high in these games typically compared to the average 2/5 game too. The button is likely pretty weak too. REC3 had 1k -- that was in the post but easy to miss. This is critical.

    If you are making this fold, what do you call with? What does P1 have anyway.
  • DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
    edited April 17
  • MXRider Posts: 53Subscriber
    REC3 has now pot committed with his 300 turn bet and only has 570 behind. P1 has just put P2 to a test as his raise now commits half of P2's original stack. If we feel we are ahead of P1(likely) but behind to P2, this should be a shove as P1 has committed and we end up with a 4.2k stack from the side pot even if we lose to REC3 when P1 calls our shove. Top 2 is just good enough to me here (and I am in no way properly qualified to make these statements). Would love to hear others thoughts on this.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    P1 has as many combo draws as he does premiums. Can't imagine this is a fold. But him going after the rec who is betting strongly is disconcerting.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    edited April 18
    If rec has 1k then I am at least calling this raise. Since this creates a protected pot when rec player calls all in behind, we could just call this turn raise and fold to river shoves from P1. It is not clear to me if raising all in is more profitable or calling and hen folding to river shoves shows more profit.

    I don't worry too much about defence frequencies in 3 way pots involving recreational players.

    Both professionals should be forgoing optimal strategies to max exploit the recreational player. 3 way GTO is not even well defined.

    P1 could have 8xhh, 6x hh, 9hth, 9h7h for bluffs. For value, kk, jj, kj and some times overplayed AA. He may not have bluffed his 9ts and 97s on flop given Rec3 was showing interest. On turn, he has a strong draw with no showdown value and low SPR so he decides to raise is a believable story.

    It's very unfortunate to run into kk or jj here given the stack sizes. I think Rec3's stack size makes it very likely that P1 just decided to get the money in with his draws. If Rec3 was deeper, P1 would almost certainly check call again with his draws is my read.
    by 1DrSpace
  • DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
    iamallin said:
    If rec has 1k then I am at least calling this raise. Since this creates a protected pot when rec player calls all in behind, we could just call this turn raise and fold to river shoves from P1. It is not clear to me if raising all in is more profitable or calling and hen folding to river shoves shows more profit.

    I don't worry too much about defence frequencies in 3 way pots involving recreational players.

    Both professionals should be forgoing optimal strategies to max exploit the recreational player. 3 way GTO is not even well defined.

    P1 could have 8xhh, 6x hh, 9hth, 9h7h for bluffs. For value, kk, jj, kj and some times overplayed AA. He may not have bluffed his 9ts and 97s on flop given Rec3 was showing interest. On turn, he has a strong draw with no showdown value and low SPR so he decides to raise is a believable story.

    It's very unfortunate to run into kk or jj here given the stack sizes. I think Rec3's stack size makes it very likely that P1 just decided to get the money in with his draws. If Rec3 was deeper, P1 would almost certainly check call again with his draws is my read.
    Right the hand is about exploiting in an optimal framework. I think P1 would play high equity draws like this though as they doing well vs REC3 range that has worse draws in it and relatively low equity hands generally -- at these stakes you need to take high profit plays even if they have high variance IMO.

    P1 almost never has JJ I think as that unblocks calls on the flop. Hands like A ♥️ T ♥️, Q ♥️ T ♥️ , A ♥️ Q ♥️, Q ♥️ 9 ♥️ still quite possible too. They may continue the flop as ✔️ call or sometimes ✔️ raise vs REC3 but probably do not bet flop as PFR.
    Also, think about how surprising it is from P1 perspective the P2 has KJ here.
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