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2-2 PLO trying my best to butcher every street?

In the BB AJTT . UTG straddle, 4 limps, btn competent reg (though I think he has post-flop sizing tells) pots to $40. I've seen the table limp/fold a lot, so if I call from BB there's no guarantee we'll start a calling train. He has about $600, the rest of the table is mixed stacks, I cover all.

Given position, I'm not sure if this is a call or not. At this point I'm trying to only play IP, and this is perhaps the only V at the table I'm concerned about. If it's ds does that change the decision?

Well, I did call, and we did get a train. 5 to the flop ($200) T87r. Checked to btn who bets 130.
1. Should I have led out?
2. Can I rip it in here?

TYIA
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Comments

  • JohnnyUtah Posts: 1Subscriber
    edited April 2018
    Pre, I tend to think this is a great hand to add to your 3 bet/fold range. This hand, out of position is probably going to play better with an SPR of less than one in a heads up pot instead of an spr of 3.5 multi way. On the flop, you need about 43% equity to make getting it in profitable and I'm not finding any combos of J9 that you have that against. That said, if you have ANY fold equity based upon your bet sizing tell, I think getting it in is never bad. One thing to mention is that having a heart on this board makes a pretty big difference. Do you have a backdoor flushdraw?

    I can't decide if I like leading here. What would you be trying to accomplish by doing so? I tend to subscribe to the Janda theory of betting in that bets are done to either 1. make the pot bigger in case you win at showdown or 2. deny your opponents their equity. Leading doesn't accomplish 1 as you're not likely to get 2 streets in against sets as 77 and 88 are probably calling only one bet on this board and you have only 3 outs to an over-boat. I tend to think this is a shitty spot to deny equity too, considering that the straight is already out there. I think I definitely prefer checking the flop to see how the field plays. After giving it just a bit of thought, I'm getting it in on the flop. The hand that has you most crushed here would be something like J889 with two bd flush draws and you're 33% against that. Against a range of 6789-9TJQ, JJ98, you're 43% which is break even. If we dilute this equity a bit and say we have 37% equity when called, we break even on shoving if he folds 18% of the time. So assuming you shoved, nice hand.

    Edit. The more I think about this one (I haven't played in 3 days, so this one has my attention, hahahah) given we have Jh, this cuts down the combos of J9 by 35.8%. I think the only benefit of leading is that you may get one street of value from 69 that may fold to a second barrel, but if your games play anything like mine, people don't fold. Check raising is going to accomplish both of the reasons to bet much better than leading. Pretty clear check with the intention of raising here imo.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,141Subscriber
    Thanks for the great feedback. I agree with you flop analysis. Leading might have been fine, but if I get a cascade of callers it looks like a million cards will complete a straight of some sort, and I know I'll be lost. Like you said, even a psb doesn't deny equity, and with so little back, some of the V's will play the turn perfectly. I thought ch/jam will likely only get called by a made straight, but you never know if some guy will see 2 people in the pot and call with some type of 2p+ gutter or something. At the same time, I really risked giving a free card; perhaps I was extremely lucky he cbet into 4 callers?

    If I lead flop and get 1-2 callers including OR, well everyone else SPR is miniscule so I will have to gii no matter what. Against OR It'll still be a small SPR but I don't think the correct odds to call a turn shove if it's any kind of BW card. So I wasn't sure if a c/jam is a panic play or it's correct. (Or perhaps a bit of both.)

    ATM I don't have a 3! bluff range, I'm really still trying to get my head around equity vs ranges in different spots, and I'm not even close to where I need to be. There are only 2 live PLO games in my town, both are very reg-infested. This one has a $600 cap, the other is uncapped, with many of the players in both rooms also playing in uncapped home PLO games. I'm adding it to my repetoire b/c I can often sit in for an hour while waiting for nlhe, but considering how comfortable I am with the math of 2-card poker, I feel very fishy in plo. This particular night was maybe the best game I've sat in yet, with only 2-3 players giving me any reason to pause.
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