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TT facing flop donk

mrage Posts: 13Subscriber
edited April 17 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/$5 NL, ~$800 effective. Villain in the hand is a tight ABC player in his late 40s, seems to have been around the scene for some time based on some of the table talk I'd heard. I haven't seen him get out of line since he sat about 90 minutes ago. I don't remember him defending his blinds an inordinate amount, but I did only raise to 3bb here so that may well widen his calling range a tad. He views me as tight and perhaps even nitty, I had been fairly card dead in the time he'd been at the table.

I pick up T T otb. Folds to me, I raise to $15. SB fold, BB (villain) calls.

Flop ($32) 8 7 5

Villain donks for near pot ($25.)

Hero???

My thoughts: This is likely not a flop he's expecting me to c-bet, so that he is leading is not all that surprising. But being that I am stealing, I have lots of hands that could smash this flop too, so I believe he has connected pretty well here. There are so many hands that he could flop great equity with that it's hard to even list them all. His sizing is quite large, I feel like he's more likely to be either strong or have a monster draw vs having a weak made hand (for the sake of argument, say a hand like J 8 if he is defending that wide, or A 7 .) It also crossed my mind that he could easily have flatted me with JJ+ since he and I have no 3! dynamic, so I wouldn't be quick to take all those out of his range either. But perhaps he would donk for pot with anything he donks, I haven't seen enough of his play to say for sure.

I decided accordingly that raising for value might be too thin if he's really skewed towards monsters or combo draws (which I think are likely to 3bet a raise.) A rec player I would feel far more comfortable with raising, but this guy potting into me feels much more significant. I just call.

Turn ($82) 8

Villain bets near pot again... $65.

Hero???

Interesting card, and again with the bomb sizing. Is he really going to barrel into me like this with some sort of combo draw? I'd think he'd be wary of me having an 8 after I peeled the flop, and not be eager to get blown off his hand. I'm ahead of basically zero value hands now that the 8 has paired. Is it weak to release TT here? What is the minimum holding you would continue with?

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Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,752Subscriber
    edited April 17
    Calling both times. What's river?

    Also I know we opening but 3x small overall no? We can't make this a bigger open and still get same calls?
  • CycleV Posts: 679Subscriber
    ABC guy firing twice, and not dumb small feeler bets, when flop TP just made trips, and even his semibluffs have oodles of equity...the more I type things, the less I like this spot.

    He's a semi-thoughtful equilab analysis, giving him A8s for trips, all the PP 55-QQ (sets, 66 which is open ended, only 99 we're ahead of), Axdd and KQ-KTdd; finally one of the three 65s:
    Equity Win Tie
    BU 42.46% 41.39% 1.06% TsTc
    BB 57.54% 56.48% 1.06% QQ-55, A8s, 87s, KdQd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, 6h5h, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d

    We could open this up to QJ/JTdd, but that doesn't help a ton. T9s all 4 combos theoretically helps, except we block two, so only T9hh we're ahead of by a lot. Could take out QQ, at least 4-5 of the 6 combos. Could add some random aggression like A5s non diamonds. But we should also add in some K8s, Q8s, or 87o?

    So I took out QQ, added in all the K9/Q9dd+, JTdd. T9s, Gave him one random attack with 98s and all the A5s, again for randomness. Gave him all the 65s. Also gave him K8s and Q8s. We're basically flipping vs this nice and wide range.

    Equity Win Tie
    BU 50.95% 50.11% 0.83% TsTc
    BB 49.05% 48.22% 0.83% JJ-55, A8s, A5s, K8s, Q8s, T9s, 87s, 76s, 65s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, 9h8h, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d

    In essence, I think this is a spot that takes a lot of our energy, but idk if there's all that much in EV either way. FWIW I know even tight ABC players get itchy from time to time, but counting on this to be the time, idk if that's how I plan on making money when I go to the casino. I'd be fine with whatever you decide, though I do think you have to decide if this guy can fire a 3rd barrel on a blank. If he can, then we have to call blanks and fold anything scary (diamonds, any 6, a 4, a 9).
    by 1mrage
  • mrage Posts: 13Subscriber
    neverlearn2 said:
    Calling both times. What's river?

    Also I know we opening but 3x small overall no? We can't make this a bigger open and still get same calls?
    I was going 4x+1per except going one less if stealing BTN or CO. But idk if I really like it, just trying it out.
    CycleV said:
    ABC guy firing twice, and not dumb small feeler bets, when flop TP just made trips, and even his semibluffs have oodles of equity...the more I type things, the less I like this spot.

    He's a semi-thoughtful equilab analysis, giving him A8s for trips, all the PP 55-QQ (sets, 66 which is open ended, only 99 we're ahead of), Axdd and KQ-KTdd; finally one of the three 65s:
    Equity Win Tie
    BU 42.46% 41.39% 1.06% TsTc
    BB 57.54% 56.48% 1.06% QQ-55, A8s, 87s, KdQd, KdJd, AdTd, KdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, 6h5h, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d

    We could open this up to QJ/JTdd, but that doesn't help a ton. T9s all 4 combos theoretically helps, except we block two, so only T9hh we're ahead of by a lot. Could take out QQ, at least 4-5 of the 6 combos. Could add some random aggression like A5s non diamonds. But we should also add in some K8s, Q8s, or 87o?

    So I took out QQ, added in all the K9/Q9dd+, JTdd. T9s, Gave him one random attack with 98s and all the A5s, again for randomness. Gave him all the 65s. Also gave him K8s and Q8s. We're basically flipping vs this nice and wide range.

    Equity Win Tie
    BU 50.95% 50.11% 0.83% TsTc
    BB 49.05% 48.22% 0.83% JJ-55, A8s, A5s, K8s, Q8s, T9s, 87s, 76s, 65s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, 9h8h, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d

    In essence, I think this is a spot that takes a lot of our energy, but idk if there's all that much in EV either way. FWIW I know even tight ABC players get itchy from time to time, but counting on this to be the time, idk if that's how I plan on making money when I go to the casino. I'd be fine with whatever you decide, though I do think you have to decide if this guy can fire a 3rd barrel on a blank. If he can, then we have to call blanks and fold anything scary (diamonds, any 6, a 4, a 9).
    Thanks for running those calcs! That was the crux of my thinking, that even if I had immediate pot odds I was going to hate so many rivers and possibly fold or call incorrectly. I wound up folding. But I think in retrospect I like a call and fold river. I think in his spot it's going to be tough to barrel again as my range is not capped here and I can certainly be drawing to a straight or flush myself if it runs out that way.
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