$2/$5 NL, ~$800 effective. Villain in the hand is a tight ABC player in his late 40s, seems to have been around the scene for some time based on some of the table talk I'd heard. I haven't seen him get out of line since he sat about 90 minutes ago. I don't remember him defending his blinds an inordinate amount, but I did only raise to 3bb here so that may well widen his calling range a tad. He views me as tight and perhaps even nitty, I had been fairly card dead in the time he'd been at the table.
I pick up T♣ T♠ otb. Folds to me, I raise to $15. SB fold, BB (villain) calls.
Flop ($32) 8♦ 7♥ 5♦
Villain donks for near pot ($25.)
My thoughts: This is likely not a flop he's expecting me to c-bet, so that he is leading is not all that surprising. But being that I am stealing, I have lots of hands that could smash this flop too, so I believe he has connected pretty well here. There are so many hands that he could flop great equity with that it's hard to even list them all. His sizing is quite large, I feel like he's more likely to be either strong or have a monster draw vs having a weak made hand (for the sake of argument, say a hand like J♠ 8♠ if he is defending that wide, or A♣ 7♣ .) It also crossed my mind that he could easily have flatted me with JJ+ since he and I have no 3! dynamic, so I wouldn't be quick to take all those out of his range either. But perhaps he would donk for pot with anything he donks, I haven't seen enough of his play to say for sure.
I decided accordingly that raising for value might be too thin if he's really skewed towards monsters or combo draws (which I think are likely to 3bet a raise.) A rec player I would feel far more comfortable with raising, but this guy potting into me feels much more significant. I just call.
Turn ($82) 8♠
Villain bets near pot again... $65.
Interesting card, and again with the bomb sizing. Is he really going to barrel into me like this with some sort of combo draw? I'd think he'd be wary of me having an 8 after I peeled the flop, and not be eager to get blown off his hand. I'm ahead of basically zero value hands now that the 8 has paired. Is it weak to release TT here? What is the minimum holding you would continue with?