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5/5 Backdoor Flush (can we fold)

BartBart Posts: 5,955AdministratorLeadPro
$1000 effective UTG1 raise to 20, HJ calls I call 86dd in BB.

FLOP: 6s 4s 3d. Check 35, fold I call.

Turn 4d. Check 75 I call.

River Kd. I bet 225 he raises to 550.. $1050, $325 to call..
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Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,860Subscriber
    I like a c/r on turn a lot.

    As played I can't see why we don't shove over.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,955AdministratorLeadPro
    neverlearn2 said:
    I like a c/r on turn a lot.

    As played I can't see why we don't shove over.
    Shove over a raise on the river with an 8 hi flush on a paired board?

    I thought about check raising turn but would have to believe that villain would be capable of folding an overpair.
  • fishcake Posts: 964Subscriber
    Shoving river is a massive overplay. I need some info on villain here Bart. Does he open A5dd pre you think? QJdd things like that? I’m leaning fold on the river.
  • ActionTwin Posts: 146SubscriberProfessional
    @fishcake QJdd and other suited broadways are irrelevant because V shouldn't be betting this flop with those. He could MAYBE have A5dd, A7dd, and A2dd, but I think it's quite unlikely. You have to overlay 3 things - if he's even opening those hands UTG1, the frequency of him betting the flop with them, and then raising the river on a paired board. I don't think you're getting raised on the river by flushes all that much but if you are you have the nut low flush anyways given he opened EP (unless he opened specifically 75dd). I think this is a pretty easy fold because KK makes perfect sense for him to have and he could have 66, 44, 33, maybe 64cc/64hh. And what bluffs can he arrive with here? You also have a ton of boats and quads in your range and he's still making a small river raise over your large 80% pot river lead. I would call with my boats here and fold my flushes/trips. I could even see an argument for folding 33 here because it's the same strength as your hand if V is not raising flushes on the river. He just feels extremely nutted to me.
  • brick Posts: 127Subscriber
    280 in the pot right? Lately my winrate has been suffering a little and I wonder if it's due to getting away from the bread and butter of bet-folding? Here maybe bet full pot or even 300 straight and fold if raised. I feel like it's still small enough to get looked up by weaker.

    Your back door flsuh draw is a little more hidden and the K might have hit his AK. Maybe he got wild. Call due to spaz factor.
  • Oback2 Posts: 206Subscriber
    I think we can safely fold on the river here. Villian is really never bluffing in this spot, and he's not overplaying/spazzing 30% of the time to make this a call.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,103Subscriber
    I can't find many bluffs here. Pocket 5's, or AdKx that is deciding to bluffraise a river? I just don't see how this is too likely. There's always a total airball or mid PP and he's decided to punt, repping KK, but I'm not optimistic. Reads would be nice.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,955AdministratorLeadPro
    ActionTwin said:
    @fishcake QJdd and other suited broadways are irrelevant because V shouldn't be betting this flop with those. He could MAYBE have A5dd, A7dd, and A2dd, but I think it's quite unlikely. You have to overlay 3 things - if he's even opening those hands UTG1, the frequency of him betting the flop with them, and then raising the river on a paired board. I don't think you're getting raised on the river by flushes all that much but if you are you have the nut low flush anyways given he opened EP (unless he opened specifically 75dd). I think this is a pretty easy fold because KK makes perfect sense for him to have and he could have 66, 44, 33, maybe 64cc/64hh. And what bluffs can he arrive with here? You also have a ton of boats and quads in your range and he's still making a small river raise over your large 80% pot river lead. I would call with my boats here and fold my flushes/trips. I could even see an argument for folding 33 here because it's the same strength as your hand if V is not raising flushes on the river. He just feels extremely nutted to me.
    I dont think there is much doubt about folding a flush (especially small) to a larger raise. My question here is what type of price are you going to call? Like say he min raised are you still folding?
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    call. odds too good. LA poker taught me this could be AK :D or some other confusing hand (4x) . 6 blocker is good as well. for allin I would fold.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    That donk on river says you are playing this spot exploitatively.

    So why stop that now? Exploit him some more and just fold screw the odds. He ain't bluffing.
  • ActionTwin Posts: 146SubscriberProfessional
    @bart yeah I still fold. I think the only way his range might change if he min raises is it might include some more flushes but since they all beat our flush anyways I don't see that changing our decision. Also if he somehow spazzes out once in a blue moon with larger sizing the chance of that is pretty much eliminated with a min raise sizing. I'd expect to be beat much more often than the 4.2 to 1 price we'd be getting for a min raise.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,955AdministratorLeadPro
    Spoiler:


    Hero calls and gets shown down 4444

  • BartBart Posts: 5,955AdministratorLeadPro
    iamallin said:
    That donk on river says you are playing this spot exploitatively.

    So why stop that now? Exploit him some more and just fold screw the odds. He ain't bluffing.
    I don't know about that. If we are constructing our range of calling correctly does the opponent get to bet all pairs between 7s-Qs on this runout? There has to be some sort of leading range here on the river.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,860Subscriber
    Yea I would have gotten owned.
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    especially because you sized it nicely on river a low flush is bet fold to any raise at 5/5 to all but known spots.
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