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2-5NL Top 2 wet low board facing turn shove

boobear Posts: 13Subscriber
edited May 16 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Beginning of session, 8 handed, no reads.

$10 straddle is on.

Villain (MP) has $900 effective.

I'm first to act and raise to $40 with 9 8.
MP calls and button calls. Blinds and straddle fold.

Flop ($137) 8 5 9

I bet $90. Both MP and button call.

Turn ($407) 2

I bet $210. MP goes all-in for $780. Button folds.

Fold or call?
I'm getting about 2.5:1 so have to be good 29%

Comments

  • mt16aao Posts: 2Subscriber
    Assuming you do not open 67 and 22 utg, this is the 4th best hand we can have in this spot. Against unknown villian, seems like a clear cut call.

    Folding most combinations of 10s-JJs this spot. QQ+ mostly calling off while folding some combinations of QQ+ with a spade in them.

    That's how I like to think about my calling range in this spot without much information on villian frequencies. What ended up happening?
  • DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
    Your there you have some information — is the person a pro or young / old ?
    I am not at a table 200bb deep without knowing these things.
    by 1CycleV
  • boobear Posts: 13Subscriber
    DrSpace said:
    Your there you have some information — is the person a pro or young / old ?
    I am not at a table 200bb deep without knowing these things.
    This is not the normal casino I play at so I don't know if they are a reg or not. 30 something year old.

    I have reads on them now but when I played this hand I had no information.

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,737Subscriber
    well i mean ur new and hes new. IMO there is no big difference between 2 pair and a overpair here unless he it the type to slow play AA or KK. As hard as it sounds i think I can safely fold here.

    We are an unknown and opened, got called by MP with players left to act inlcuding the straddle. Im putting him on all sets, straights, FDs, and 2 pair as well. I dont really put him on any overpair here except maybe TT.

    On top of that we are betting the whole and we got raised after basically playing our hand like we got AA.

    I think we should fold without any reads here.

    calling cant be the worst but MP is showing a ton of strength here especially him not raising ur big flop bet with players behind. How often is he bluffing turns with FD on turn with someone left behind him.
  • Shorn7 Posts: 3Subscriber
    V has way too many combo draws in his range now with two fd's out there for you to fold. 55 is his only value hand. I call for sure.
  • whoisjoeb Posts: 61Subscriber
    Here is some flopzilla analysis:

    If we give the villain a cold calling range like this:

    99-22,AQo-ATo,KQo,QJo,ATs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s

    Our hand has 85% equity on the turn against this range. Even if i make his range looser it doesnt change much. (See Attached)

    I think this is a clear call.

    1446 x 947 - 374K
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,737Subscriber
    that is a pretty generous range if u ask me.
  • whoisjoeb Posts: 61Subscriber
    perhaps, but you have an unknown flatting an EP raise in a low limit cash game.

    for arguments sake lets narrow his flatting range to:

    99-55,ATs-A5s,KQs-KTs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s and assume he 3bets anything better, our equity against his range here is still 78%

    We can narrow it even further and our equity actually increases.

    What if he never 3 bets and just flats the top 25% of hands:

    AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s

    Our equity is 88%

    top 15% - still 88%

    What if hes a complete donk and calls almost everything: still 88%







  • CycleV Posts: 634Subscriber
    Hello JoeB and welcome aboard. Please don't take this the wrong way, but unless I'm totally off (always a possibility), you're using flopzilla wrong. You plugged in a reasonable range for V calling pre, that's cool, and is helpful in telling us where we're at on the flop (otf). But we're talking about what to do once we get to the turn (ott). So you have to take out of Zilla all the hands like KQo, 33, 22 or A4dd which never calls the flop, etc. Your range for getting to the turn should look like SD, FD, made hands.

    Once you're there, we have to refine it even further, to what hand we think V just called the flop but now is shoving the turn. It's not often that a V with only a draw otf now decides to semi-bluff ott, though without reads this is hard to say. So unless it's specifically JTdd or T7dd, there aren't any new combo draws, so we're mostly up against made hands.
  • whoisjoeb Posts: 61Subscriber
    edited May 18
    yup. i posted and left and when i got in my car i was thinking and was like "rut roh, you never removed the hands that hes folding.." I was hoping to get back before anyone noticed. sorry :) i guess i needed more coffee this morning.

    looks like we have 68% equity when you run it assuming he shoves all his made hands, combos and flush draws
  • CycleV Posts: 634Subscriber
    edited May 18
    whoisjoeb said:

    looks like we have 68% equity when you run it assuming he shoves all his made hands, combos and flush draws
    And that is the part where I'm guessing most of us will disagree with you, cuz imo there's just no way he's (often enough to matter) deciding to suddenly shove A3ss to get us off of AA. I mean, it would be a totally baller move and twitch would blow up if someone did it on stream, but at lol live, I don't see it happening nearly often enough to account for.

    Against a straight value range (sets, straight, 98s), we're crushed (15%). Adding in a couple of hands that picked up a combo draw (JTdd and 87dd), we still only have 23%. You have to keep adding in hands like A9dd and A8dd just to get to break-even equity. So to make this call OP has to believe that there is enough of a spazz factor to make up for all this. I'm all for adding 10% minimum for spazz but that's usually earlier in a hand, and without reads this is tough to gauge. In general, if he's the type to semibluff JTs or a FD, he usually gets it going otf. It's only if we think he won't semibluff otf but suddenly will ott, when not too much changed (there just aren't many diamond bdfd in the ranges), for us to think we're good here.

    We repped very strong the entire way, and dude is still like, "Stacks." I'm not saying I can fold, cuz I'm not saying I can fold ever, but I'm a leak fish. If V is a 25yo Asian kid, I prob call and yell for chips before the river is even dealt, but if the guy is older than 50 I'm more likely to make an entertaining, overdramatic rendition of Hamlet before I (correctly) fold.
  • whoisjoeb Posts: 61Subscriber
    CycleV said:
    whoisjoeb said:

    looks like we have 68% equity when you run it assuming he shoves all his made hands, combos and flush draws
    And that is the part where I'm guessing most of us will disagree with you, cuz imo there's just no way he's (often enough to matter) deciding to suddenly shove A3ss to get us off of AA. I mean, it would be a totally baller move and twitch would blow up if someone did it on stream, but at lol live, I don't see it happening nearly often enough to account for.
    Fair enough. I can certainly see what your saying here considering what we are repping. Perhaps a little over zealousness when plugging it into software. I was also looking that A3, A4, A6, A7 suited as combo draws with the one liner to straights. A5, A2 spades and A9, A8 diamonds have outs to trips, but your right, would he shove these, doubtful when you think about it (barring the 35yo asian reference).

    oh well, ill take it as another lesson learned

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