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4-bet bluff river decision

ds2uared Posts: 28Subscriber
2/5. $1,700 eff. Lots of targets at the table who limp-fold, raise-fold, and raise-call-fold flop. Villain in MP2 seems competent but we have no information on him other than his sizing seems to be competent. Hero has a winning image. Hero is experimenting with 4-bet bluffing

MP1 raises 20. MP2 Villain 3-bets 55.
Folds to hero in CO with A 5. Hero 4-bets 150 because he read about it somewhere. MP1 giggles and folds. MP2 calls pretty quickly.

Flop Q 5 5 . Pot 320.
MP2 checks. Hero bets 140. MP2 calls.

Turn T. Pot 600.
MP2 checks. Hero bets 420. MP2 calls.

River 9. Pot 1,440.
MP2 checks. Villain has ~1k left. We...?

Comments

  • DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
    edited May 30
    jam or bet like 825 are both OK. ITs virtually never a flush and rarely any hand that beats you. QQ once in a while.
  • Sonny Posts: 277Subscriber
    edited June 1
    Thats a pretty unfortunate runout for sure. AQhh could be in his range, so could QQ, and maybe sometimes he might float the flop with 1010. So its only a few combos that he can really have here that beat us, but its hard to imagine what he is 3 betting then calling down and checking to us with... Once he calls the turn he has to have something fairly strong for sure. KK? AQ with the Ace of hearts? Any AQ? Could he be flatting AA pre and think he's letting us hang ourselves? His 3 bet size was pretty small however, could he ever also have the 5 of spades here? A5 suited, 65 suited, 45 suited? I imagine those might 3 bet as a bluff, but would fold to a 4 bet... but maybe he decided you were deep enough and peeled?

    Lots of possibilities, but I think not getting it in is probably loosing value...

    Obviously the problem with 4 bet bluffing is what do we do when we run into this situation. After we 4 bet and get called pre, we're probably shutting it down if we don't smash the flop... but we did. I persoanlly think 4 bet bluffing at $2/5 is pretty much getting out of line, and unnecessary.

    I am very interested in seeing what happened though.
  • DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
    Sonny said:
    Thats a pretty unfortunate runout for sure. AQhh could be in his range, so could QQ, and maybe sometimes he might float the flop with 1010. So its only a few combos that he can really have here that beat us, but its hard to imagine what he is 3 betting then calling down and checking to us with... Once he calls the turn he has to have something fairly strong for sure. KK? AQ with the Ace of hearts? Any AQ? Could he be flatting AA pre and think he's letting us hang ourselves? His 3 bet size was pretty small however, could he ever also have the 5 of spades here? A5 suited, 65 suited, 45 suited? I imagine those might 3 bet as a bluff, but would fold to a 4 bet... but maybe he decided you were deep enough and peeled?

    Lots of possibilities, but I think not getting it in is probably loosing value...

    Obviously the problem with 4 bet bluffing is what do we do when we run into this situation. After we 4 bet and get called pre, we're probably shutting it down if we don't smash the flop... but we did. I persoanlly think 4 bet bluffing at $2/5 is pretty much getting out of line, and unnecessary.

    I am very interested in seeing what happened though.
    "I persoanlly think 4 bet bluffing at $2/5 is pretty much getting out of line, and unnecessary. "

    yes
  • maphacks Posts: 1,945Subscriber
    I would guess part of the reason why hero 4bets is villains small sizing. could be AA but usually it's some medium strong hand which has a hard time defending against a decent size cold4b and some heat postflop.

    AP, we I would shove river. if we had read we could size smaller but without knowing tedencies I will not opt for a smaller size. (could be good vs nits/scared money amateurs/OMCs). checking is no option vs unknown IMO.
  • betgo Posts: 35Subscriber
    OP makes clear he has no read on villain's 3-bet tendencies. Unless villain is 3-betting frequently and showing down 3-bet bluffs, there is no reason for the cold 4-bet bluff. He may only be 3-betting a 3% or 1% range.

    I don't agree with shutting down unless you smash the flop. People in 2-5 games want to play postflop and will call the 4-bet and fold the flop. You need to cbet frequently after representing so much strength. Now if his range is so strong that it is better to shut down, then that just shows how bad the 4-bet was.
  • Fletch23 Posts: 112Subscriber
    As played on the river, I think the best play may be a mini bet (like $400). He’s not checking to you with anything really strong (like a flush or QQ, TT). He’s probably got AA, KK or AQ, KQ or maybe even JJ. He may not call a push with those. Unless he’s horrendous.

    I am not a fan of 4-bet bluffing without a good read, though. There are enough other good spots for value you don’t need to do this.
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