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When to fold a second nut flush draw against heat?

whofox Posts: 25Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I'm playing in a passive $1/2 game with about a $150 stack and I have K4 of clubs and limp behind a few limpers, someone makes it $7 and everybody calls. The flop comes Js6c7c. I check and a guy behind bets $25, another raises to $50 and both have me covered. The problem here is that I could easily be drawing essentially dead if someone has the nut flush draw and the other guy has two pair or a set but I end up calling and hitting my flush and more than doubling up.

The questions are, how often does one of those raisers have the nut flush draw? How often will the $25 bettor three bet the flop? Will I get paid off if I do hit my flush? Looking back I think I was being pretty reckless with a naked, non-nut flush draw but it worked out this time.

Comments

  • SKOOSKOO Posts: 160Subscriber
    If you're purely going for your flush and you plan on calling with only $140 behind, you might as well shove and max your pay if you hit and win. Cold calling there is burning tons of $$$ in the long run when you miss on the turn and c/f

    As always, every hand is dynamic in itself. Different players, different stacks, etc.
  • whofox Posts: 25Subscriber
    Thanks, John.

    One thing I didn't mention is that I have virtually no fold equity against the flop raiser. Maybe the original bettor but the guy who raised is a regular and I know he's never folding there.
  • BradleyT Posts: 621SubscriberProfessional
    In passive $1/$2 games it's OK to limp this. Sometimes you'll end up overflushing a suited hand that wouldn't have played for a raise like T6 spades. Plus if there's no raise your K might be good if it hits and it seems like you're in position. However once it gets raised preflop I dump the hand. Your King is now probably going to be second best if it hits and if you do flop a flush draw it's going to be much more expensive to chase after it.

    As played when the first guy bets close to pot and another guy raises him you have to discount some of your outs because you can be up against a set, 2 pair, or a better (or worse) flush draw. I'd give yourself about 7 solid outs here. Calling 1/3rd of your stack is a fish play so shove with fold equity if you feel like gambling but I'd prefer the fold since you said you have no fold equity.
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