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5/5/T Rivering top boat after V takes the betting lead

5/5 UTG straddle $10. 1.5k eff. V's first time in this casino. Late 30's, portly Japanese guy. Assume he learned online b/c his normal open is 3x & his post flop play seems thought out and rational based on showdowns. His pf ranges are wider than optimal though. Haven't seen many SC or any offsuit numeral cards but lots of EP opening and overcalling with off-suit broadways of all sorts. We've been in 4 small pots. First three he double barraled & I gave up turn. The fourth, I took a stab OTT and he folded. H likely has a TAG image.


Hero UTG1 opens A K $35, V UTG2 calls.

$85

K T 9

H leads $50, V $160, H calls

$405

K

Hero x/calls $225

$855

T

Hero?

Would appreciate some input on turn play as well.

Comments

  • Beatsme Posts: 499Subscriber
    This spot pretty much seems like a spot where the villain will be able to play pretty well against a bet. If we bet he folds pretty much everything that doesn't chop with us right? maybe a crying call from 99 or QJ but i can see those hands folding.

    If we check i don't see him bluffing. Is he really going to turn AQ or AJ of in to a bluff... maybe? but kind of doubt it. Just cause you haven't seen any SCs doesn't mean he cant have them. So maybe he turns some of his weaker fds into a bluff.... and who knows maybe he some of the Ax ?

    The more i think about it i guess i like checking and giving him some rope to bluff. I think that will lead to more value than betting and trying to get looked up by a weaker hand
    by 1CycleV
  • CycleV Posts: 568Subscriber
    I agree, I think our only hope is he bluffs with something.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,675Subscriber
    Can't we raise turn at all or no? He repping KT and maybe 99 from your description that beat us. He also has QJ though here but his turn sizing is bad and not consistent with a flopped straight.

    He has KJ and KQ we beat along with Ax NFDs and Jxdd hands as well that might take a his line.

    As played I like a check in front as well.
  • DrSpace Posts: 708Subscriber
    Turn ok
    Block bet river vs described V
  • pokergal72 Posts: 49Subscriber
    I'd probably bet out small on the river trying to get a crying call from QJ. I don't think you're going to get a bluff bet from v on this board.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,191Member
    edited June 14
    DrSpace said:
    Turn ok
    Block bet river vs described V
    I understand that you’re suggestion this based on V’s profile but what does OP hand look like when he takes that line?

    Hero basically never reaches the river with 1 pair so when you lead it’s Kx most likely.
    I’m entertaining a x/rip..

  • Bigbschip Posts: 11Subscriber
    Bet like half pot hope to get heroed,not too many hands he's bluffing river unless maybe missed diamonds.
    Besides can't risk a check back by JQ QQ or jj or all the tens he can have that check back.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,859SubscriberProfessional
    I'm not quite ready to give villain a nutted range based on flop and turn action. With the number of combo-draws and ability for villain to use something like A Q× as a bluffing combo, I'm wondering if we can't check/raise the turn for value? We'd need to be willing to call it off, but I think we have enough value/equity, and don't block any of the logical semibluffs.

    As played, villain checks back everything that is not Kx. I'm not sure you can get any value from worse. But he's also not going to bluff or overvalue something since you have Kx here 99.9% of the time with your line. I think you can either check and hope he bluffs, or polarize yourself and rip it in. Not sure which is better. I don't particularly like a smaller bet, as that makes your hand look even more like a king than it already does...
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,090Subscriber
    1 hand beats you
    7 hands tie
    16 hands have a straight.

    I'd just bet out small targeting QJ.

    As played..... and I will get shot for saying the following but you might consider folding the flop.
    #1 you opened UTG1
    #2 he called UTG2 which should mean his range is stronger leaning on AK, QJ, TT, 99 as his value hands with few FDs where KQ and KJ would just call.
    #3 an unknown called you. Most unknowns aren't maniacs
    #4 that flop smashes your range
    #5 that flop is made
    #6 he raised you more than 3x. This wasn't a min-raise let me find out where I am at this is a value raise.
    #7 even if he is semi bluffing his included semi bluff range has HUGE equity vs you along with his hands that already crush you. So you need to consider future betting.

    Instead of snap calling the flop think about exactly what hand he would 3x raise that you beat under all the conditions above.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Vs a 100% fish leading has some merit, against anyone competent like it sounds like this guy is, lead is really really really bad. I'd definitely check river, I don't think leading should be considered against someone with an online background who seems to be playing decent.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,090Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    Vs a 100% fish leading has some merit, against anyone competent like it sounds like this guy is, lead is really really really bad. I'd definitely check river, I don't think leading should be considered against someone with an online background who seems to be playing decent.
    You overestimate player's fold capacity on the river in live play.

    Online I have gotten people to fold a set of aces before.

    Live? Even the good regs can't fold an overpair.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,185AdministratorLeadPro
    Hes going to be checking back with QJ and 99 so I would bet small like others have said here. Not sure @stayinschool why betting is bad vs "online players" when they are going to be checking back the same hands as well. I mean I understand the need for balance and to protect a river checking range but I think that this spot is different. A block is fine with our hand and our missed diamond draws if we think villain is QJ and 99 heavy.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I think it leaves river range too weak, I guess you could lead some of your Kx but i think donking all of it is bad. I guess i could see an argument for this being the best combo to lead given to unblocks Tx and QJ so maybe a lead isn't bad. However, you still have to check Kx IMO.
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