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Understanding our equity.

z7 Posts: 225Subscriber
So got into a spot here. I’ve probably been playing 20 hours at this point and the game went all night. V is somebody I’ve never seen before but hinted that he’s never really played plo and I sort of believed him. Old Asian guy.

So Pre not that important. I’m UTG +2 and make it 50 with AAQ6 double suited. Get 5 callers V on button.

Flop (300) K64 with 2 diamond H flops no suits. Checks to V on button V checks.

Turn 300: 6x giving hero trips A kicker. 3 checks H bets 125. Folds to V who tanks and pots it for 675 (has 200 back). Folds to H.

What do we think our equity is here? What do we put V on? If he has A6 then I’m getting free rolled. could be a really big free roll too if he had like A675 diamonds. If he has a full house I’m close to dead. If he’s bluffing he likely has a lot of equity.

What do we think our equity is here and are we shoving for V’s 200 back or folding?


  • theroller Posts: 4Member
    edited July 2018
    Trying to fold you off a low draw imo, which makes his range look like boats (KKJx) or non nut low draws + freerolls. Not in great shape against either of those.
  • z7 Posts: 225Subscriber
    Sorry I should have clarified, this is plo high only
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    edited July 2018
    You have 35% against

    (64:25%, a6:25%) !kk!k6!44

    If he is going with worse 6x with dd or straight draw back up
    .our equity goes up to 40%

    Get it in imo

    We need around 35% to break even
  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,295Pro
    So - and Im not looking at a calculator yet just talking it out live. I cant see many draw hands as the board pairing makes them a tiny part of V range at this point. Should not be a lot of bottom sets that are now full - but 5 callers anything can happen. We are toast vs KK and 5 handed with a 2 flush flop its not crazy that someone played KK that way - need to know the field. Vs other 6 we could be ahead sometimes, getting freerolled, or already be already vs a full in which case we dont have a lot of outs, and even if we are up vs a non full 6 they will have more outs to improve.

    I would put a lot of weight on on player reads here as I there are not that many players that get tricky here. The V raised over a small lead from you - is there any reason to think he saw that as weakness? Seems more common he is thinking "good - someone has something - let me get it all the money".

    You are only getting the right price vs a random 6, and weird draws that he cant have that many of. This is a good example of a hand where an equity calculator may give you a really bad answer (bad as in not useful) as you really need to reduce the combos of the things we have good equity against - I would put more 64 and 6k in than iamallin did, and I dont think you can have !kk!k6!44 as a range reducer enough of the time

    I lean towards fold based on normal players only having cards here that crush us most of the time but would modify that based on reads. This also seems like a good variance reduction fold as its a pretty high variance/ev spot - so if that matters its a factor.

  • z7 Posts: 225Subscriber
    So yeah I was pretty bummed when he raised. Though about it for a while. But because this guy wasn’t a plo player I started thinking about how a holdem player (probably a bad one) would arrive here.

    Now I did exclude KK and K6. But 64 a possibility and maybe 44 but I think 44 is rare.

    However if V had a naked 6, I think he would see it as the nuts and go with it. Although my range is just so much stronger than a naked 6 I don’t think he’s thinking about that at all. I still have KK k6 64 but again, V just thinks I have a trips. So cause of that I just shoved, didn’t love it. V had T876 and I take the pot.

    I thought this after, is me always folding here really worth it? Cause the times he has this hand or some weird bluff me folding is a disaster. Still not sure about it ( I really wanted to fold but couldn’t)
  • High__Rolla Posts: 752Subscriber
    If he was a PLO player, I think this is a spot to make a savvy fold for the reasons several have already given. But you’re read that he is a holdem player changes things in my opinion. (I’m assuming he is not playing super tight.)

    His line strongly indicates to me that the six on the turn helped him. I discount KK, K6, 44, and NFD as I think a hold em player bets these 6way on the flop. 64xx is a possibility. But, a hold em player is more prone to overvalue 6xxx. You have blockers to A6xx so there is a decent chance you are ahead. I’d go with it.
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