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Folding bottom set

Lame_Name Posts: 22Subscriber
edited August 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5-10. 2k effective. I open raise to $35 with 2 2. utg +1. Villian calls button. Solid young tag pro. Been around for at least 5 years so seems to be proven winner. Heads up to flop.

9 4 2

I bet $50. He raises to $175. I call.

Turn A

I check. He bets $300. I call.

River K

I check. He bets $700.

Trying to find a hand I beat. 53 suited makes sense and gets there. 44 and 99 make sense. The ace is offsuit. Nut flush draw not making sense with so much showndown value. I think if he’s bluffing he should be targeting TT-QQ and the river sizing seems unnecessarily large. I may certainly defend AK to the flop raise and can have that. Also can have AA or KK. 5 6 . There’s the bluff hand I can find that takes this line. A9 calls flop I think. Even A9 diamonds. And value too thin on river for that.

I folded. He didn’t show. Sorry for no resolution. Thoughts?
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Comments

  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    22 is not a winning open usually from UTG1 but it really looses if you fold a set for a medium size bet OTR. Flush draw missed. A ♦️ 9 ♦️ too thin on the river? I think it plays like this a lot. K9 ♦️ ♦️ can play this way. Many flush draws could play this way too. I get the idea that his range of hands that play this way for value and you beat is narrow. But that works both ways. It is hard to fold for this price when you beat any value hands.


    Raising the flop with a 9 on a board you should not bet betting big very often is not crazy. Then trying to bluff you off TT JJ QQ KK OTT is ok too. People over c-bet this board a lot. Any A9 K9 combo could do this some.

    This is especially true if the good player has picked up on the fact that you way over fold. Your putting in 120bb with a set when a FLUSH DRAW misses. You really can't fold without detailed knowledge. Sure, your hand reading is good. You will be beat some decent percent of the time.

    Why can't the villain be trying to get you off hands like JJ, QQ with 9 ♦️ x ♦️ ? A good player should have enough bluffs here you have to call IMO. It is $700 to win $1720.

    You also make it hard for the villain to hand read as they may heavily or completely discount you having 22,44 in your prelfop range. Then if you just flat the flop they assume you never have a set as 99 might well bet 3!.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    22 is not an open utg+1 in a fr game

    Fold is fine on river. Live 5 10 good reg population is underbluffing this board with his action imo. He can't really have any 2 pairs ..a9dd and may be akdd if he didn't 3 bet it pre.

    Annoying fold.





  • Lame_Name Posts: 22Subscriber
    I disagree with DrSpace that a good player is raising 9x diamonds on the flop. Only stonger hands continue and weaker hands fold. A raise serves little purpose other than protection. The vast majority of the time a preflop caller should be calling a cbet in position with 9x diamonds. Any when he bets river for value the best hand I can have that he beats is AQ/AJ and that's pretty ambitious to think I called a flop raise with that.

    I'll give a half combo to the 2 pair value hands anyway:

    Value combos I beat: 1/2 A9dd, 1/2 K9dd

    Bluff combos I beat: 56dd. I'll also throw in 1/2 JTdd and 1/2 QTdd which picked up gutshots on the turn. I think there is some percentage those hands don't raise the flop or follow through with 3 bets so can't be full combos.

    3 total combos I beat

    Combos I lose to:

    44 (3), 99 (3), 53s(4). From my experience I do think he is calling button with all 53s. Rec players are in the blinds.

    10 total combos I lose to

    I'm getting 2.5:1 on the call. To me I think the combos show I need 3.3:1. Happy with the fold.


    I get the preflop critique. I'm not in poker only for profit. I enjoy it. I'm not gonna open limp and I'm not gonna open fold. I'll take the -EV and continue to open raise all my pairs. I will overlimp in early and middle position with the small pairs though.

    DrSpace: "22 is not a winning open usually from UTG1 but it really looses if you fold a set for a medium size bet OTR." This generalization is pointless. Of course I don't routinely fold sets on the river. I'm not just clicking buttons and folding sets on the river when someone bets.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    Argument for a good player raising a pair on this flop..... He denies your equity, and removes the chance you bluff the turn with AK, AQ when one of 12 bluff and 6 real combos come. And it actually saves him money when behind if he was planning to call a turn bet.

    Argument against... too many bluffs in his range when he does so. Also doesnt allow you to bluff.

    My thoughts?... Depends on the villain and how deep he thinks. So if the villain is pretty ABC doesnt realize balance, doesnt understand deeper concepts, is a feel player.... yea I can raise this flop. If this villain is me I call this flop with a small pair.

    As played assuming he is a deep thinker and that good.... this is really tough on what to do. Your hand looks like the following, AK, QQ-TT, busted FD including A Q . It could be KK some of the time. So when you look at your total combos..... 18 weak, 9 strong, ~5-10 FDs it is pretty mandatory he bluffs the river and I would include his whole bluffing range. Bluffing is less -EV than checking.

    If he is very typical of the 2/5 and 5/10 grinder I encounter which doesnt do the research I do you can lean more on value hands.

    As for raising small pairs UTG.
    #1 no semibluff power
    #2 being oversetted. Everyone I encounter poos poos this notion but one stack loss = all the minor +EV steal situation with a small pair that succeed. I played online a lot for more than a decade and my small pairs lost basically due to this reason raising in EP. I was a huge proponent on why it's wrong. Only one really.
    #3 Easily bluffed with a float and an observant opponent who realizes your range.
    #4 you get in spots like this where your opponent is indifferent to whether you call or fold and you pretty much have a 0EV situation for a huge pot with high variance.
  • Lame_Name Posts: 22Subscriber
    Thanks Fuzzy. This is helpful.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    If there is ever a time to fold bottom set, this is probably it. You did all the combo work. Combine that with the fact that the river is severely underbluffed in live play and this is a fold.

    And also put me in the "Fold 22 UTG" camp, especially with a solid player on the button...
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    I think it's call.
    You folded a set here, so if V is really a good player I have to assume he's able to recognize that you're overfolding in general.
    So I can see him starting to put pressure on you with a fairly wide range.
    Definitely all FD and even some backdoors J T etc.

    Also I'm not sure if V should have 53s in his pre-flop calling range - that seems a bit too light...

    So his value range is very thin - just sets basically and he should easily have A 9 in his range - I raise it vs a "tight" player on the flop all day long.
    He should definitely have enough bluff combos to justify a call getting the odds IMO, unless you're really familiar with his game and/or is able to make a very VERY exploitative fold based on some table dynamics that are difficult to relay here on the forum.

  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    edited August 2018
    I can't count how many thousands I have lost using the logic

    "If I fold such a good hand here they will somehow magically realize what I folded and gather the courage and wherewithal to relentlessly bluff me in similar spots in future..zomg..so I must call down"

    ..
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Also when someone says ABC is a good player I understand it as he is a good winning player for the stakes he plays at. Not that he is a good poker player with perfectly balanced ranges who can rival some of the toughest nlh players on planet, seamlessly turning hands into bluffs and making razor thin call downs at the drop of a hat
  • RagingOwlRagingOwl Posts: 172Member
    iamallin said:
    I can't count how many thousands I have lost using the logic .
    If you can't count it, how do you even know you lost?
    "If I fold such a good hand here they will somehow magically realize what I folded and gather the courage and wherewithal to relentlessly bluff me in similar spots in future..zomg..so I must call down"
    It's not magic. While it's true that your opponents can't see what you fold, they DO see what you show down. More importantly, they see what you DON'T show down. That plus the overall frequency with which you fold can given even a semi-intelligent player a clue that it might be ok to start bullying you.



  • Oback2 Posts: 206Subscriber
    Terrible open.

    AP, it’s an easy call down.

    If this Villian is flatting 53s he’s not a solid player. Second of all, if he’s actually a “solid” player it’s a snap call because he’s going to have enough bluffs, or thinner value bets on this run out.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Lol you are giving 5 10 grinders too much credit. People are always more interested in their own life than they are in yours. no ones is keeping track of how many hands you fold and guessing you are folding monsters.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    iamallin said:
    Lol you are giving 5 10 grinders too much credit. People are always more interested in their own life than they are in yours. no ones is keeping track of how many hands you fold and guessing you are folding monsters.

    Funny I was just talking about this with my poker buddy.

    I think he thinks that I think.... Yea even I don't think that deep @ 2/5. You just don't run into deep thinkers. Even the regs are pretty much what they have and what they think you have at best.

    The highest level I have seen is someone realizing the BB just squeezed and even then they don't have the balls to play back.
  • betgo Posts: 35Subscriber
    As to preflop, I would always play this hand at 2/5 as there are too many multiway flops. Unless the table is pretty tight and aggressive preflop, it seems like worth playing. I couldn't fold a set on this board with no flushes and only 53 makes a straight.
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