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QQ top set turn decision 2-5 -straddle $2000 effective

JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
edited August 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hero has solid winning image. Known in local game as a winning weekend player.
Villain is winning loose recreational Caucasian thinking action player about 40 years old, plays most weekends, has ran hot for last 3 months making him a decent winner on the year.

$2000 effective
Game plays with a mandatory uncapped straddle.
This hand the straddle is $15 making the blinds 2-5-15
9 handed hero has:
q q utg - hero raises to 50
Called on button called in small blind

Flop: (150) t 8 4 hero bets $80, button calls small blind folds
Turn: (310) q hero bets $210, button raises to $580
Hero ??????


If your calling I appreciate insight into your river plan?

I really appreciate all comments and poll responses.
Hero turn decision
  1. What is your turn action?21 votes
    1. Raise / Jam?
      47.62%
    2. Call?
      47.62%
    3. Fold?
        4.76%

Comments

  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    You will have the best hand an awful lot here and this raise can be for protection as the board got scary. There will be a lot of rivers that are bad for whatever hand is raising you and seeing what happens on the river is the best choice this deep, given the straights are still well represented in the villains range. I can't assess whether the villain has off suit straight combos which is important. Most sets raise the flop but certainly not always and some folks will wait for the turn. QTo would be great for you -- is that in the pre flop range? How about Q8s? It is also unclear where the straddle is here? Note, we are not terribly deep for a 2/5/15 game but people still tend to play it like its 2/5 stack in my experience. That is a player pool tendency -- don't know about your villain. Give us your thoughts on the preflop range. Depending it might bet better to reraise get it in. Its critical to know how wide the villain calls the pre flop $50 OTB.

    Also, do you think the villain would raise hands like K ♣️ J ♣️ , A ♣️ J ♣️ that are now combo draws ?
    by 1JKH
  • fozbo Posts: 108Subscriber
    I don't see a reason to call here, J9 is all were behind, assuming hes decent thats 4 combos, he has all the set combos, and when he's raising any combo draws you deny equity with a jam. I mean hes not folding sets anyways right?

    Only disaster is if he finds a fold with a hand like T8s or QTs, that's like 3 more combos, I'm piling this in his eye almsot every time
    by 2JKH CycleV
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    DrSpace said:
    You will have the best hand an awful lot here and this raise can be for protection as the board got scary. There will be a lot of rivers that are bad for whatever hand is raising you and seeing what happens on the river is the best choice this deep, given the straights are still well represented in the villains range. I can't assess whether the villain has off suit straight combos which is important. Most sets raise the flop but certainly not always and some folks will wait for the turn. QTo would be great for you -- is that in the pre flop range? How about Q8s? It is also unclear where the straddle is here? Note, we are not terribly deep for a 2/5/15 game but people still tend to play it like its 2/5 stack in my experience. That is a player pool tendency -- don't know about your villain. Give us your thoughts on the preflop range. Depending it might bet better to reraise get it in. Its critical to know how wide the villain calls the pre flop $50 OTB.

    Also, do you think the villain would raise hands like K ♣️ J ♣️ , A ♣️ J ♣️ that are now combo draws ?
    He would have all the j9 suiteds, I would gues three quarters of his tt”s , 88”,s and 44”s b/c I think he will be somewhat balanced raising the flop with a set but favour slow playing his sets. In this 2-5 -15 elevated straddle, $50 preflight raise dynamic, and being that he I S not stuck I would give him a reduced 50% of his qt off”S and 25% of his q8 suiteds ( both hands varying with his mood).
    From having history with him I would eliminate 80% of his draws including the combo draws because of the less than 3x turn raise sizing.
    I do think if I call and the river is a black card there is a high likelyhood he will check back his sets / 2 pair.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,004Subscriber
    I think you can jam here, as YOU can have draws that picked up equity like the KJcc and AJcc that people are referencing. So you can get value from lesser made hands. This board is so wet, you will get called pretty liberally, especially if villain isn't blocking any of those draws (like sets/2P).
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,373Subscriber
    Turn depends on the villain frankly.

    I rarely see a semibluff raise here.
    I rarely see 2 pair raise here.

    This is usually a slowplayed set or J9. Considering he didnt close the action I lean more on J9.

    Villain is winning loose recreational Caucasian thinking action player about 40 years old
    Key words
    recreational 40 year old caucasian = not creative usually
    loose = J9o is in his range

    If you have never seen him make turn raise moves especially past my strong hand threshold point for 2/5 of $200 then I'd call. If he snap raised, I'd also lean more on calling. If he put on some act then raised, I'd lean more on calling. if he was very still and quiet then raised after a few seconds I'd lean more on calling.

    The problem here is the remaining size. Shoving won't get much to call. Even a set might fold. And if you click it back and get shoved your price is too good now to fold. I think shoving is overcommitting. You are going to dump $1700 more here hoping he calls with what?

    You can call and lead.
    Hem and haw play some mind games like your hand is weak then call. What this does if this guy thinks is to rearrange his thinking to possible bet more predictable on what he thinks your hand strength is which would be weak. Unlikely though since most players dont consider this.

    You hold top set so it is very rare he has QT in this spot (3). He has sets (9) and probably J9 (16). His bluffs could be Q x
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    I think it's a rather trivial call.
    Obviously we can never fold as we need 3.4 : 1 to boat up even if he has J9
    Jamming is probably a bit of an overplay. If we're ranging him heavily on slow played sets, we can get the value on the river anyway.
    JKH said:

    I do think if I call and the river is a black card there is a high likelyhood he will check back his sets / 2 pair.
    The pot is going to be 1470 - that's HUGE for 2/5 game.
    Do you think he has the balls to put out a 1K bluff on the river? For most players the answer is no.
    If that's the case it makes river play fairly easy, so you can easily call turn and evaluate rivers.

  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    Thanks for the responses much appreciated I did jam all in thinking I am unlikely to fold the river anyway & I wanted full value from his undersets.
    He had J9 and I got stacked —

    The good news though was the game had an uncapped buy in and I later ran my AA into his KK for a full refundable more.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,887AdministratorLeadPro
    edited August 2018
    At first I thought that this was a rather trivial call on the turn, but at a stack depth of like 125bbs I think its very close.

    You raised from UTG, so if button is only calling with J9s thats only 4 combos of hands that beat you. There are 9 combos of sets on the flop, but he's going to raise off some of them, lets say 4 or 5 of the 9. I rarely see players turn semibluff with big draws at this level but its possible. I ran this in cruncher and you have about 65% equity vs those hands. The killer part here is if you call and lose the action from an underset on the river if a scary card comes OR if he misses the draw and doesn't bluff at the end. See attachment.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,887AdministratorLeadPro
    Here it is..
  • HomelessPizza Posts: 15Subscriber
    Bart, can you explain how this situation changes if we are deeper (eg no straddle). Unless V is a total fish who will overplay his 2p, isn't being OOP more important than how deep we are because we risk V checking back sets/2p on scary rivers?
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I saw the results before posting, and I still want to jam.

    But first, I'd bet flop a little larger. This is a fairly wet flop where we can get called by loads worse, and there are quite a few turn cards that can help our opponents. Maybe something like $100-$120?

    On the turn, the reason I prefer a jam over a flat is because our opponent, if on a draw, will be more apt to put more money in. Imagine when we flat vs K J and the turn comes a 3 . Then it goes check/check.

    Or, lets say villain has T8s. River is J or 9 or K . There are many river cards we either lose on or lose action on, but we are much less likely to lose the action when the river card has yet to be seen.

    If he has J9s, we still have 20% equity. But our combined equity against the rest of his range, combined with the shorter stacked nature of the game ($2k/15 ~ 137bb deep) should dictate a jam.

    If we call turn, I think we have to check/call most rivers? His sets should bet again on blank rivers. His bluffs may jam on blank rivers. But if we bet out, we get called by sets and his draws all fold out.
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