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1/2 River decision

psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
edited August 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
V1- SB. Splashy preflop, cold-calls 3-bets with relatively weak hands, (calls 3-bets with like KJo OOP very comfrontably). Opens and limps a large % of his hands. plays a bit more snug/tighter post, but still sometimes splash around so ofgten. Won't double barrel too often light.

~300 effective stacks

UTG limps, LJ overlimps, HJ iso-raises to 10, I 3-bet A K to 32 in the CO, he flats the SB. I know his flat here can be looseish, He could have some SC's, broadways hands, probably most pairs, suited aces, and even some offsuit aces perhaps. HJ folds.

Flop (~75) Q 5 K
checks to me, I bet 35 (might be a bit small, but not sure if I can get 3 streets from this hand). He check-raises to 100. Should flop be a bet/fold? (as he could for sure have all 6 combos of KQ, could have (QQ, might 4-bet that sometimes), could have 55, or are we kinda committed when we flop top pair in a 4.5 SPR pot? I call.


Turn (~275) T
Something interesting happens, he blind checks the turn, unless if he's doing a reverse tell, I'm pretty sure he was just splashing around on the flop/ or raising to see where he's at. But the turn is a bad card, I check behind.

River (~275) 9
He checks again. Hero?

Comments

  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    I think a check behind is fine. Even if we're good, which I'm not sure if we are, you're probably not getting a worse hand than yours to call with a one liner straight and 3 flush on the board.
    I'd probably bet slightly bigger on the flop. Downbetting, or betting less than half pot on the flop seems like the cool new play, but I think it costs value, and induces players to do weird shit like checkraise with weaker hands than normal. I'd probably be betting around $45-50 on this flop.
  • JLBJ Posts: 164Subscriber
    Agree with everything Sonny says. Bet a little more on flop. Check behind on river.
  • RagingOwlRagingOwl Posts: 172Member
    edited August 2018
    Shove over on the flop. HUGE miss there.

    Why is the turn a bad card? He hasn't made any action since seeing it. Do you really think his flop x/r is club-heavy? If so...then it should be obvious why shoving flop would be good.

    If you don't think his x/r is club-heavy....(i.e. if you think he's just splashing and clicking buttons....), then bet the turn. Get called by one-card flush draws!!

    You didn't make either play, so I'm wondering what you think the flop x/r means
  • psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    The flop x-raise can be roughly 2 type of hands.

    Strong hands:
    KQ, QQ,55, maybe AA/KK that didn't 4-bet from time to time.

    splashy "info-raising" whatever hands:
    I do see him doing some button clicking post, but IME, splashy players tend to play more honestly in 3-bet pots, so I discounted the last group of hands a lot more, which caused me not to jam flop.

    Kx, Clubs, possibly Qx. In terms of his KX, I think he can have down to KTo pre, and maybe K9/K8s, but I'm not sure. I saw him call a 3-bet earlier with KJo, and I'm not sure exactly how that falls in his range.

    When he blind checks the turn, I know he was most likely just splashing chips, so I range him on lots of Kx, and clubs. All of the clubs made flushes, and KT improves on the turn, so the only Kx that I beat is KJ, and K9s/K8s (if he has those pre). If Turn was not a T or higher, and even a low club, I probably jam.
  • RagingOwlRagingOwl Posts: 172Member
    So you're saying you discount the splashy hands because this player tends to behave in 3bet pots. But you're also saying his dark-check leans toward splashiness. Where does that leave us?
  • psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
    I discount splashy hands on the flop, but on the turn, when he checks turn, that increases the amount of splashy hands dramatically once he checks the turn, so on the Turn, i discount nut hands which causes a greater ratio of splashy hands to nut hands.

    The turn dark-check gives us additional information about the hand and his hand ranges.
  • RagingOwlRagingOwl Posts: 172Member
    I get what you're saying. I just don't think it's kosher to be letting any one single act drastically sway our perception of V's range the way you are.

    If you think his x/r is more than just the 16 combos of 2pr+ that you mentioned, then it's a shove. If it's nutted, fold.

    Calling flop leaves you with less than a PSB. You have too much equity at that point, and too vague of a read, to ever fold. You titled this thread "river decision", but all of the deciding should have been done on the flop.
  • psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    To be fair, given my read of him, I felt like he was likely being honest on the turn and he was kinda clueless on this game, but it's possible it's acting.

    That being said, I agree with the rest of your analysis, ship flop if you think he's a bit wild, fold otherwise. I think I ended up falling in a half measure moment on the turn and just decided to just call.

    Anyway, thanks for your help and assistance everyone.


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