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Tough spot in 125k guarantee tournament

Ok so i have a tough spot in a tournament I just played in. Tournament was at Columbus Hollywood Casino, buy in $350 with 125k guarantee. I took top 15 in a $50 satellite earlier in the week to win a seat.

Level 4: blinds are 100,200 with a 25 ante
I am at 40k off of a 30k starting stack. Haven't lost a hand at showdown yet, have a good image.
Preflop:
folds to me in cutoff, i have Kc10c and raise to 600. Get called by small blind and big blind.

Flop:
10s9c7s... check to me and i cbet 800 into a pot of around 2k. The small blind calls and bb folds.

Turn:
Jd... he checks to me and I check back. At this point I'm thinking he has a lot of two pairs that might check raise and I dont want to get blown off my hand with a pair, a gutter and an over. I think it might be worth betting to charge some flush draws but wanted to keep the pot small.

River:
Qd... he leads out and bets 2.3k into a pot of 3.6k I decide to raise to 5k. Looking back I dont like this raise. I don't know what hand would lead river and call a raise that I'm beating. Maybe I get a crying call from a set or two pair but I think his river bet is sort of polarizing to a straight or missed spades or something. He probably would just be check calling 2 pair or a set. And I really doubt he has a set bc of preflop play and flop play. JJ and QQ would raise pre and any other set would raise on the flop most likely. So after my raise he jams for 20k...

I tank for awhile. One factor was if I could have AK. If i could have AK then he wouldn't be raising river with just a king (assuming hes a thinking player). The only way I have AK here is if it's AK spades or sometimes AK with the Ace of spades. I wouldn't cbet this flop with just AK as it hits a calling range hard. I keep thinking and since he didn't 3bet out of the small blind and called a flop bet on that board, I really don't see how he has AK either unless it's AK spades or AK with the ace of spades...

So with me having K10 there are only 12 combos of AK left. AK probably should almost always be a 3bet out of the sb but lets say hes playing tricky and only 3bets 2/3 of them. (i think that number is honestly low) So now there are only 4 combos of AK left. With me cbeting the flop, he really should only be continuing with AK with the ace of spades... which is only 1/4 of the combos so he should only have 1 combo left then. But lets say he looser and calls with AK and the king of spades (he cant have AK of clubs which also could be a call bc of backdoor flush bc i have the king of clubs) then he has 2 combos of AK.

On the river he has 2 combos of hands that are beating me but he has sooo many combos of hands that I'm chopping with. He has KQ, KJ, K10, K9s and maybe K9off, K8s, K7s and maybe Kx with spades if hes playing loose from the small blind.

So if he never has any bluffing frequency then its a fold bc im only calling to chop but if ever bluffs (front door spades missed) and if ever overvalues a set of two pair then its a call.

I end up making the call, I expect to chop the majority of the time while winning sometimes and losing sometimes. He ends up having AK of hearts.... When I originally bet I was planning on bet folding. But when I thought about the hand it really didn't make sense for him to have AK.

My main questions for this hand are: should I bet that turn? should I just be just calling on the river when he lead into me? (I think yes, because the only hands that call/raise I am chopping with/lose to.) and should I call off on the river? River 3bets are so rarely bluffs that I'm either chopping or losing in the end. Also is my logic working through the combos correct?

Comments

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,040Subscriber
    Preflop is standard. I like a bigger bet on the flop, maybe 1400 or so. There are a ton of hands to get value from, all sorts of pair+SDs.

    Turn check behind is probably fine. At this point, you're just trying to get to showdown.

    I actually don't mind your river raise, as you are going to have a lot more AK in your range than he does, especially after checking back the turn. I think you can raise a bit larger to really pressure another Kx. Maybe 8500? Once he raises, though, it is a puke/fold. YOU can have AK, so how can he raise anything. Gross, you can definitely dump it on the river.
  • bears123 Posts: 3Subscriber
    Yeah good points @dpbuck. I've been cbetting around 1/3 to 1/2 pot all tournament before so I didn't want to change that but with such a wet board and top pair I think a larger cbet makes a lot of sense. Probably a fold on the river too... I agree he most likely doesn't do this with just a king bc i could have AK, especially bc I raised preflop and he isn't thinking about my cbet bluffing frequency on the flop. Should have folded but I've seen enough crazy shit that I unfortunately put in. But at the same time, 3bet jamming river is basically never a bluff. I appreciate the feedback, thanks.
  • justfourfun Posts: 191Subscriber
    I would bet the turn. 3600 in the pot and V has not shown any strength to that point in the hand. Bet 2000 on the turn. If you are called on the turn you would be comfortable being in position and having a gutter draw and possible trips or two pair on the river - 9 cards that would help improve your hand that already may be best. A surprise x/r on the turn would depend then on the size of the raise but with 9 helpful cards you might call a smaller raise. River is some tough poker. I might only call his lead out river bet just because its early in the tournament and you are doing well starting hand with 40K. But, a raise by you on the river is likely optimal in this spot. I do think you should fold to his river x/r. The only reason to call there would be that you think V is a donkey playing wild and out of control. AK is consistent with your hand so only a poor wild player runs that bluff. If you are able to do all that analysis during this hand then you are playing at a high level. It’s tough to go through all that during the moment. If you do though its a clear fold.
  • Jwhoover Posts: 20Subscriber
    From my experience in these fields players simply aren’t good enough to have blufffs on the river here, it would have to be a very high level player - which in turn would be someone who would 3bet AKs pre over half the time especially out of the SB. In game my thought process would have been

    1300 on flop reval turn card, I like the pot control check on the turn, don’t hate a bet but on the turn with your sizing of 800, but think it is probably -ev where check gets us to showdown a lot more.

    River thought process would be a better player likely 3bets pre with all AKs, sometimes flats AKo. We can assume the opponent would 3bet AK, given he didn’t and river check raised he can only have AK bc he is a weaker player not good enough to c/r bluff bc he isn’t 3betting AK..if that makes sense? Your river raise is a face up K at worst, especially with a turn check back, we bet all sets, two pairs, straights, pairs with FD (might check FD). To jam your river raise we have to sigh fold. Unlucky.
  • FriendlyFish Posts: 117Member
    Normally I would just check back this flop, if I bet I’m bet folding flop but I hate to do that so I’ll rather take the check line. The BB has a huge advantage on this flop with so many nutted hands that he can check raise along with his draws to put us in a miserable spot. But if the bb doesnt check raise often then betting is fine.

    Turn check is good.

    On river I would flat 100% of the time. SB is leading into a 910JQ board for a big bet when we have all the Kx and AK in our range, I don’t think he has any sets or 2 pairs here, most his sets woulda check raised on the flop and its suicide to lead that big with a set, and if he did he would probably lead with intentions of folding.

    Asplayed Its a fold, before we raise we have to anticipate this happening and have a plan, which u said you did but didn’t follow through. This happens to me sometimes too so i feel you.

    Assuming people will always 3B AK is not a good idea, a lot of people flat this hand, especially OOP cause they don’t wanna play a big pot oop when they miss their A or K. it’s not surprising to me at all sb showed up with AK here, a little surprised they were hearts Ofcourse as AK with spades and clubs make more sense.
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