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Set on the Flop facing big check raise

Geet Posts: 38Subscriber
5-5 800 effective, Villian is a young tight player . Havent seen him make any moves. Not a lot of info otherwise.

Villian raises utg to 20, I call with red 5's in MP.

Flop = QJ5 with Q and 5 of spades. Villian thinks about it on the flop and checks. I bet 35.

Villian check raises to 165. Hero?

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Comments

  • f0xr Posts: 63SubscriberProfessional
    Raise to $300, jam most turns.

    This is different than a 1/3 hand I played recently about 400 deep. Villain raised utg, went multi way with me with 66 otb.

    Flop was QJ6r. Villain check, field caller bets 10, I call in position. Villain now raises to 35. Folds to me, I 3! to 75. Villain 4! to 200. I fold, he had QQ. Here there are lots of draws possible. I'm happy getting it in here
    by 1Geet
  • hustlin Posts: 291Subscriber
    I would raise here. enough draws like AxS. AA, KK, QJ, 910s, AQ. Board is wet enough to raise and get it in.

    something like $350 ish is good. With bottom set its hard to fold given this board. You wanna build a big pot here and get value.
    by 1Geet
  • Stoked Posts: 96Subscriber
    As others have said I would 3-bet flop to $320ish and try to play for stacks. He has so many hands he can go with here besides QQ and JJ. If he calls you have 3/4 pot bet on turn. He shouldn't be folding very often when he checkraises this board after opening UTG. I don't think he has enough air to consider flatting. If he folds you probably weren't getting much more out of him after calling the checkraise.

    If you flat the flop raise you risk action killing card on turn or facing a sick spot if what looks like a bad card comes and he leads or checkraises again. I'm way more in favor of shoveling in as much as we can of the flop and try to realize our equity
    by 1Geet
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,373Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    My instincts say you are oversetted when facing a tight UTG raiser. Only 2-3 draw combos pull this move 2 combos of QJ. While there are 6 combos of sets. I do think you are fucked. Not saying I would fold myself here but vs certain opponents I have.

    But if I had to play this I would wait for the turn to shove AI.

    Ok so basically you have 3 sets of hands.
    25% have lots of equity vs you
    25% you have crushed
    50% you are crushed.

    If you get it in on the flop you are losing to 1/2, fliping with 1/4, and winning vs 1/4

    Why wait for the turn?

    On a blank turn card
    vs set - same result as shoving flop
    vs QJs - same result as shoving flop
    vs big draw - his odds cut in 1/2 you can shove

    On a SD or FD card - if he checks
    vs set - he might fold a better set if you shove. Say 7.5% same result as AI-OTF but with a small chance of a fold
    vs QJ - same as vs a set with a higher chance he folds say 15%
    vs big draw - he isn't checking when he hits. But might check when he misses. And if a SD card comes you should be shoving. Why? There are more FD combos than SD combos in his hand when a SD card comes. It might give him a dead pair + a combo draw now which will stack off anyways. He might stack off anyways. 9 combos of FDs vs 8 combos of SDs.

    On a SD or FD card - if he bets
    vs set - he might bet smaller. Lots of ways to play this. Shoving as a bluff. Raising small to get to SD as a play without getting stacks. Or just calling because he won't shove the river saving $$$
    vs QJ - same as vs a set but very likely he checks here to give you green light to bet.
    vs big draw - This is the only tough one because if he has the NF he might bet smaller. But it is still the same result as shoving the flop.

    Waiting to the turn you also pick up reads on the player to get more information on his hand. I HIGHLY doubt he is raising a weak hand to fold the flop. And his strong hands outnumber his weak hands.

    I could run the #s on all the scenarios but I am not. As a homework assignment you should run the #s and post them. This is how you learn. Taking situations you have not encountered, work the math, and see the results. It cements the information in your head better.

  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    I like Fuzzy's general line of thinking. I probably call on the flop in this particular case. Its not that we are not stacking off 55 its more that we want to keep his range wider and let it have overplays and the rare combo draws. I am huge advocate for getting it in as fast as possible. Maybe not here though. If it was OMC who just never folds KK, AA then we get it in and take our medicine for calling 55 when we are set over set. Not saying 55 is not super profitable call this is just the down side of such calls. I doubt this is set over set a majority of the time.

    Its a very large raise for live poker that is often a draw or protection for KK,AA. See what develops we are in position and can easily get stacks in BTR on favorable run outs vs value hands we beat like QJ,kk,AA.

    If we call,
    pot = $370.
    We have $615 left. Make sure $250 goes in on favorable turns. Then on turn
    Pot= $870, we have $365 left. NP getting it in. Can jam turn if you think you will get called.

    If the flush completes OTT and he jams, fold. Nice hand. Play the math OTT.



    by 1Geet
  • Geet Posts: 38Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    Thanks all for your comments, analysis and math considerations.

    I guess I made a bad fold here. I didnt think this was a type of player that would make such a large check raise with a big draw or even AA or KK. It did feel like a protection raise but protection against draws when holding QQ or JJ. He took some time before checking the flop, was considering betting and ended up checking, kind of felt like he had a really strong hand on the flop. ( Also, I had shown several suited connector type hands on showdown. May be he thought I had somekind of a draw on a wet board like this).

    I was about 60% favourite to win against the range of JJ-AA, AKspades, K10spades,910 spades. Would have been difficult to play on the turn if an A,K, spade, 10 came in. Dont think villian is ever folding if I shove.

    I just went with my instincts and folded. I tabled my hand before folding and the villian was shocked, maybe little frustrated, not sure what he had.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,373Subscriber
    Like I said I think you are beat on the flop, dont sweat it.

    by 1Geet
  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    As played I'm thinking you're beat here also. You lost $55, no sweat. Yeah maybe you passed an opportunity to double up, but maybe you made a really good fold.
    Is he raising any two pair combos pre? Probably not. Is he leading AA and KK on the flop? Probably. Is he check raising AK of Spades? Somewhat doubtful. Put all that together and seems like a fold to me.
    You can't go broke by folding a spot you're unsure of, and you'll always have spots where you know you're good 100%. I don't think folding is either wrong or bad. If it feels like a bad spot, it usually is...
    Never show when you make a big fold though! You might think that people will try to bluff you more or something, but all it shows is that you're a good thinking player and doesn't accomplish much of anything good...
    by 1Geet
  • BartBart Posts: 5,887AdministratorLeadPro
    edited August 2018
    At 160bbs deep at this level it is very very difficult for me to fold a set on a wet board and certainly not to a single raise.

    I would like a call on the flop to keep your range wide. You don't want any hero folds from strangely played overpairs or some sort of ridiculous bluff. If a spade or a T rolls off I would most likely just call a bet, but against any blank and strong follow up lead I am just getting in in on the turn. Of course there are other players where I would just bet 3 bet the flop if I never ever thought they had a check raise fold range. Bart
    by 1Geet
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