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Good Runout to 3x barrel sb?

5/5 NL
800 eff

Table has been very tight and passive; minimal limping and lots of folding

Mp limp
I make it 25 to go in CO with Ah9d
Sb calls young Asian headphones unknown, limp calls
Flop QT8r (75)
X, X, 40, only sb calls
Turn Kss (155)
X, 110 call
River 6sss (375)
V checks

Should I give up? Any Sizing suggestions?

Comments

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,450Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    #1 don't bet this flop. It is a high to mid range board and you have very little fold equity. Any GS destroys yours. Any mid pair isn't folding, no GSs are folding, no SDs are folding. Your only chance is to target the very bottom of their range which would be 22-77 (30) + ~(3-15) combos of low SCs which you already beat. 33 -45 combos = ~2.8% of their range. If they are calling with just 15% of their range you are really screwed. Many SDs are out there. For the SB to call his range should be tighter also. The limper calling after the SB calls would have a looser range.

    As played??? Well he clearly doesn't have a straight and 90% likely not a flush. 75% likely not a set. So you face 2 pair at best. KQ, KT (18) and other 1 pair hands like AQ, QJ (21), JT, etc.

    I actually do think this is a good spot to bluff. I would go $300. Normally I would say $250 or $275 here but his willingness to call $155 OTT makes me think I really need to put the power on at the river. And $300 sounds a lot more scary than $275.

    I would also think about how he acted on the flop and turn. If he seemed comfortable with the calls then uncomfortable with the river card I would make the bet on the larger $300 side. If he seems comfortable on the flop, uncomfortable on the turn, uncomfortable on the river I think you can make it $250. Reason is when he is twice uncomfortable he is now more leaning on weaker hands than stronger ones like QJ or JT and a smaller bet should do the trick. When bluffing size the smallest bet that will succeed. He certainly doesn't have a 9x here.

    by 1Stoked
  • HomelessPizza Posts: 15Subscriber
    Thanks for the response. Only correction would be he called 110 OTT, so would that change your river sizing? I made it 245 OTR.

    Betting flop was really close for me...but being IP, blocking the nuts and strong TP swayed me to cbetting. I did not expect many folds OTF, but I though it was a good board to setup profitable barrels.

  • BartBart Posts: 5,973AdministratorLeadPro
    Just give up on the flop. Also raising A9os over a limp is a little bit optimistic preflop, but I have made this play against weak competition. I am definitely not running a multiple barrel bluff here when next to call acts.

    An alternative to dbl barreling turn is to check back turn--if you bet the flop and bluff river when checked too. Its a viable line with a hand like AK or even AA with that connected turn card. And if sb is calling with pair plus jack and other strong hands that he won't fold on the river, then you can risk less by seeing river card and bluffing him off of pair+jack instead of being in a guessing game on the river.
  • HomelessPizza Posts: 15Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    Thanks for the response Bart. Your site has really improved my play at 5/5.

    I definitely considering giving up OTT, but I figure if he flatted the turn, the board was scary enough that I could discount 2p/sets and V mostly had p+d.

    I always figured 3x barreling appeared stronger and had more FE than your check turn, bet river line but I think it makes sense here.

    I bet 240 OTR, V tank called and showed JxTs....so I still feel good about my river decision....I think I just ran into a unknown STN, showdown monkey (based on what I saw later from V, I would never have made this play)
  • BartBart Posts: 5,973AdministratorLeadPro
    Thats not really what "showdown monkey" means. That term refers to people that check back, when in position strong hands that they should be valuing betting for fear of being check raised.
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I find myself agreeing with everyone else re - the flop. We have much better bluffs we can use than this one, namely AJ, KJ, 97, 98, K9, AK, etc. We block the nuts but this is a high action board that's going to connect with both players' ranges fairly hard. So blocking the nuts a little bit holds less importance.

    As played, this turn card is great for what should be our bluffing range. We either get TP or broadway, and KQ makes top two. It's still going to be difficult to bluff SB off of his hand. His cold calling range in the SB also likes this card. Jx hands now have a double gutter, KJ has top pair along with it. KQ has top two. I'm again not expecting a lot of folds if we barrel this card.

    Given your line, this may be a good river to overbet. The fact that he has just check/called means that he "caps" his range. The board is scary enough that the nutted and strong hands should have raised before this point. The fact that he doesn't leans me towards drawy types of hands. We shouldn't really have many, if any, bluffs in our range by this point, so we can overbet this and overbet AJ/AsXs hands. $525 would be an interesting sizing.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    pretty gangster call by him.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,973AdministratorLeadPro
    I bet that, bet/check/bet would have worked, like I stated. Bart
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