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2/5 Flatted 3! with AA

f0xr Posts: 50Subscriber
edited August 16 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Thought this was an interesting hand that relates to the podcast this week on blockers.

2/5, $1,300 effective stacks. Hijack is a middle age Asian guy, reg grinder. SB 20's white guy. No history between them.

MP limps, Hijack raises to $30 with A A

SB 3! to $130. MP folds, Hijack just calls.

Flop ($270) T 6 3 SB bets $75, Hijack calls.

Turn ($420) Q SB bets $225, Hijack calls.

River ($870) T SB jams for $870.

Spoiler:
Hero is the SB with A K

Thought this would be a slightly profitable bluff, depending on how many AQ combos the Hijack calls with. Would have liked to have the A , but on the other hand I block just as many of the Broadway spade combos with the K. And if he has the A, from an optimal sense he blocks my only obvious bluff, so he should be less likely to bluffcatch. Not that I expect a 2/5 player to be thinking at that level, just thought in hindsight it would be an interesting spot in his position and I would have folded his hand.

Comments

  • ClockClock Posts: 1,040Subscriber
    I think you have to call holding A
    I don't see how he can have a flush.
    K J I guess the only reasonable flush possible..maybe K 9 if we start really stretching, but I would expect him to bet larger on flop.
    QQ would also probably bet a bit larger on the flop.
    Don't see Tx betting the turn.

    I call.
  • RagingOwlRagingOwl Posts: 172Member
    Since the real question is in the spoiler.... here's my answer

    Spoiler:
    This hand got de-railed when you bet so small on the flop. That line just screams "I missed, I hope you did too".

    If I were the villain, I'd call you down.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,146Subscriber
    #1 As the MAAG vs an unknown 20s kid..... I wouldn't flat AA. I will lean on the averages. On average most players aren't very good. So I must have a read and a reason to flat AA in this spot to maximize my money with the hand. I find more often than not when I 4b they call but if I flat they might fold more post flop so I want the value in preflop.

    #2 as MAAG vs the unknown kid I would assume the flop bet is AK. It is so small for an average unknown. It is also under $100 which leads to a weak hand @ 2/5 = Small bet weak hand. since I hold A our opponent doesnt have a flush draw on the flop. OTT when he bets $225 now I know he doesnt have the FD unless it's like 2 combos of KJ or JT but even there I discard this due to the small flop bet. So what does he have OTT with this larger bet? AQ K J× would be my guess. KJo because maybe he bet small OTR and picked up large equity OTT. KJo is discounted because most don't have the balls to bet over $200 when they pick up that much equity. TT no you'd see a larger bet OTF, and not as large a bet OTT. QQ you'd see a larger bet OTF. I'd say 1 combos of AA/KK. 12 combos of AQ, 3 random combos of hands AA beats. 2 combos of some weird big hand played deceptively.

    #3 OTR? I want to fold my hand but due to the odd flop bet, then odder turn sizing, and that AA has the A I'd simply work the math on if I should call comparing combos. Which would lead to a vomit call here. OTR I think the kid is SUPER polarized to some bluff or some really weirdly play set of TENS rivered quads by the river bet. So it's 1 combo vs at least 1 combo of bluffs or overplayed hands. I call.

    A) As the SB if I was bluffing with air or even AQ. I'd give up OTR when the other player calls. Either he has a slowplayed AA, which I see very often now, KK which he isn't folding, slowplayed QQ, slowplayed TT afraid of the flush and QQs OTT. Like I said in the past decent players DO NOT FOLD OVERPAIRS EVAH! Only hand you can make fold is JJ here. Of all the call combos...... 16 call and only 6 fold. So there is really no bet that you can make that is profitable IMO unless you can bet 1/4p to make JJ fold or some random air if you have like a naked 24o. Which you can't. AQ is the same as having AK IMO or 22

    B) If SB played TT cagey I like the shove. If SB has AA or KK I like a smaller bet OTR because now the ranges you are facing are very weak or very strong and I want to target the small range. There is no bluff shove for my MAAG to do so if he does you probably have to fold. As gross and counter everything in poker math that is getting 5:1 there is almost zero chance he would be bluff raising OTR when he shoves.

    5s later looking at spoiler.....

    Well kiss my grits and call me Daisy cowboy.
  • DrSpace Posts: 709Subscriber
    Not reppping much AA snaps.
  • f0xr Posts: 50Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:
    #1 As the MAAG vs an unknown 20s kid..... I wouldn't flat AA. I will lean on the averages. On average most players aren't very good. So I must have a read and a reason to flat AA in this spot to maximize my money with the hand. I find more often than not when I 4b they call but if I flat they might fold more post flop so I want the value in preflop.

    #2 as MAAG vs the unknown kid I would assume the flop bet is AK. It is so small for an average unknown. It is also under $100 which leads to a weak hand @ 2/5 = Small bet weak hand. since I hold A our opponent doesnt have a flush draw on the flop. OTT when he bets $225 now I know he doesnt have the FD unless it's like 2 combos of KJ or JT but even there I discard this due to the small flop bet. So what does he have OTT with this larger bet? AQ K J× would be my guess. KJo because maybe he bet small OTR and picked up large equity OTT. KJo is discounted because most don't have the balls to bet over $200 when they pick up that much equity. TT no you'd see a larger bet OTF, and not as large a bet OTT. QQ you'd see a larger bet OTF. I'd say 1 combos of AA/KK. 12 combos of AQ, 3 random combos of hands AA beats. 2 combos of some weird big hand played deceptively.

    #3 OTR? I want to fold my hand but due to the odd flop bet, then odder turn sizing, and that AA has the A I'd simply work the math on if I should call comparing combos. Which would lead to a vomit call here. OTR I think the kid is SUPER polarized to some bluff or some really weirdly play set of TENS rivered quads by the river bet. So it's 1 combo vs at least 1 combo of bluffs or overplayed hands. I call.

    A) As the SB if I was bluffing with air or even AQ. I'd give up OTR when the other player calls. Either he has a slowplayed AA, which I see very often now, KK which he isn't folding, slowplayed QQ, slowplayed TT afraid of the flush and QQs OTT. Like I said in the past decent players DO NOT FOLD OVERPAIRS EVAH! Only hand you can make fold is JJ here. Of all the call combos...... 16 call and only 6 fold. So there is really no bet that you can make that is profitable IMO unless you can bet 1/4p to make JJ fold or some random air if you have like a naked 24o. Which you can't. AQ is the same as having AK IMO or 22

    B) If SB played TT cagey I like the shove. If SB has AA or KK I like a smaller bet OTR because now the ranges you are facing are very weak or very strong and I want to target the small range. There is no bluff shove for my MAAG to do so if he does you probably have to fold. As gross and counter everything in poker math that is getting 5:1 there is almost zero chance he would be bluff raising OTR when he shoves.

    5s later looking at spoiler.....

    Well kiss my grits and call me Daisy cowboy.
    Thanks, I like your analysis.

    The flop bet was a misclick, meant to bet 1/3 pot and accidentally went $75 instead of $100. I'm still undecided about the value of small cbets in 3! pots at this level. With value hands it often works great because most villains use the same thought process you do. They put me on AK, and I often get raised by a hand like JJ or QQ. Sometimes makes the hand harder to play, but villains often have no clue how to react.

    In this case, especially with the misclick, I think it does change the Hijack river range. I think he can have all AQ, AsKx, QQ, JJ, TT, 99-77 with a spade, and Tx.

    I don't know how many of those hands he will or should call with. I just thought it was interesting from his side, since holding the As blocks the only obvious bluff.

    He definitely did make a crying call, and said he only called because he had the As, and he thought I either had TT or a bluff. I'm nowhere near that polarized, but it's fine with me if my opponent doesn't know that.

    I agree that slow playing aces is an epidemic among the regs. At 1/2 it was always the l/rr AA. At 2/5 all I see is limp/call AA, flat a raise with AA, and raise/call a 3! with AA. I don't know why, i guess just fps


  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,146Subscriber
    f0xr said:
    I agree that slow playing aces is an epidemic among the regs. At 1/2 it was always the l/rr AA. At 2/5 all I see is limp/call AA, flat a raise with AA, and raise/call a 3! with AA. I don't know why, i guess just fps
    It's because people are folding to 3bs a lot and it's noticeable. But they still don't do it in the right spots.

    At 1/2 and 2/5 once you establish a decent player has TPTK or an overpair they are NEEEEEEEEEEEVER folding it unless it's 4 flush or 4 straight. I tried several times and thought if I was in their shoes with AA what does my hand look like considering all the combos, my position, my stack, the bet size. Nope they still stack off. I always ask what they thought I had and I have gotten answers from just laughing, to I have no idea, to some cheap excuse like you got.

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