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Take Every Edge?

BrittGriscom Posts: 22Subscriber
edited September 2 in Tournament Discussion
$600 NLHE tournament at Sandia Casino. Day 1-A. We are down from 102 people to about 35. Each level has 40 minutes. We are in Level 11. The day will end at the end of level 12. We aren't yet close to the bubble.

The blinds are 1,000/2,000. The ante is 200. There are 8 people at the table, so there is an initial 4,600 in the pot.

Villain1 is UTG. He is a loose-aggressive player with 100,000 chips. He raises to 5,000. Villain2 is a loose-passive player with 13,000 chips. He goes all-in. I put his range as about 22+, AT+. I have a tight-aggressive image, and most people are folding to me when I raise. I am in late position with 55,000 chips. I look down at TT. I am confident that unless Villain1 has a premium hand, he will fold when I shove. The question is, is it worth shoving with no fold equity but with about 59% realized equity against Villain2?

My price is about 37%, and my equity is about 59%, so just in terms of EV, it makes sense to shove. In a cash game, I would certainly take this edge, but I'm not sure in tournaments. Do we take every equity edge we can in tournaments, or do we wait for safe spots in which we have a lot of fold equity?

Comments

  • WillHungPoker Posts: 72SubscriberProfessional
    edited September 2
    One way to look at this problem is to run this scenario and figure out the EV in terms of chips by going all-in with TT.

    I attached some screenshots for you in terms of probable open range and calling range for the loose aggressive chip leader.

    I agree that you have about 59% equity against the short-stack all-in based on your assumptions.

    I think one factor you missed is how often the chip leader will usually fold. Let's say he open raises about 20% - 25% of his hands. He will only call your all-in 5% - 6% of the time, 88+, AQo, AQ, AKo, and AKs.

    That means about 75% of the time (I like conservative estimates), chip leader will fold, blinds will fold, the pot will be 35,600 because your all-in will be the short stack's effective stack size. The EV for this situation is 35,600 * 0.59 = +21,004

    The other 25% of the time there will be 3 all-in's. 27% of the time, short stack will win the hand and triple up. You have 47.5% equity against the chip leader's calling range (again, 88+, AQ+). You can win the pot outright about 34% of the time.

    We can break it down like this:
    Win the entire pot: 0.34 * 172,600 = 58684
    Win the side pot: 0.268 (Equity for the short stack for 3 all-in's) * 0.475 (Your equity against the chip leader) * 84,000 = 10693
    Lose against the chip leader and bust: 0.525 * -55000 = -28875

    So your chip EV is 21004 + 58684 + 10693 - 28875 - 55000 (your all-in shove) = 6506

    So this is about +3BB edge, which is very significant. I agree there are other spots in the tournament that can give you a similar edge with a lower variance, such as 3-betting people who open too wide.

    The reason I know this is significant is because spots like pushing all-in with short stacks in the right spots is usually about +1BB. Making postflop moves like floating, check raising, flop raising c-bets, etc. may give me somewhere between +1BB and +3BB for chip EV with obvious risks.

    However, your stack is a medium stack of about 27.5BB. If you want a stack that will give you bigger edges, then you probably need to get your stack to over 40BB. From my experience making multiple final tables with a similar structure like the Wynn Saturday tournaments with 40 minute levels, you want to have a big enough stack to consistently steal blinds and antes and then 3-bet weaker players.

    I am definitely going all-in in this situation.

    Very curious to know what you decided.

  • BrittGriscom Posts: 22Subscriber
    edited September 2
    I folded :(

    I would have won :(
  • CycleV Posts: 679Subscriber
    Hey WillHung, I look forward to reading more stuff from you. I'd think the big stack will fold most AQ, AQo at least, but your ranges and math work are great.

    (FWIW I play live cash and online MTTs with BI $25+.)
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 72SubscriberProfessional
    Thanks CycleV! Yeah, I think in live tournaments, people do tend to fold AQo and call with AQs. If this is true, then TT is a clear shove in this spot and then 99 is probably close.
  • Jwhoover Posts: 20Subscriber
    Not to be critical, just curious to know why we folded in game? I love the math break down, tough to do in game for me, I just feel that 8 handed vs described villians I am rejamming probably 88 (may fold 9 handed, folding 10 handed) 99-QQ, AKs, closer to the bubble I may lean more towards a tank call w/ KK & AA trying to get the big stack to rejam (if playing to win ie smaller buy in top heavy). That may be bad advice however.
  • CountRoblivionCountRoblivion Posts: 53Member
    WillHungPoker said:

    I think one factor you missed is how often the chip leader will usually fold. Let's say he open raises about 20% - 25% of his hands. He will only call your all-in 5% - 6% of the time, 88+, AQo, AQ, AKo, and AKs.

    That means about 75% of the time (I like conservative estimates), chip leader will fold, blinds will fold, the pot will be 35,600 because your all-in will be the short stack's effective stack size. The EV for this situation is 35,600 * 0.59 = +21,004

    The other 25% of the time there will be 3 all-in's. 27% of the time, short stack will win the hand and triple up. You have 47.5% equity against the chip leader's calling range (again, 88+, AQ+). You can win the pot outright about 34% of the time.

    We can break it down like this:
    Win the entire pot: 0.34 * 172,600 = 58684
    Win the side pot: 0.268 (Equity for the short stack for 3 all-in's) * 0.475 (Your equity against the chip leader) * 84,000 = 10693
    Lose against the chip leader and bust: 0.525 * -55000 = -28875

    So your chip EV is 21004 + 58684 + 10693 - 28875 - 55000 (your all-in shove) = 6506
    I have two questions here.

    1. I don't understand why you subtracted the size of the all-in at the end of your equation. Can you explain where that came from?
    2. Since we're assuming the first scenario happens 75% of the time, shouldn't the first term be multiplied by .75, and the summation of the remaining terms be multiplied by .25?
  • justfourfun Posts: 153Subscriber
    I really don’t think this is close enough to require much analysis or computation. Shove all-in in this spot every time. You don’t need fold equity. You likely have the best hand and you do not want a call from V1
  • Vhead Posts: 5Member
    Jam
  • BartBart Posts: 5,415AdministratorLeadPro
    BTW.. I think people overestimate how many "edges" can be passed on in tournaments. That's why you see some of the big winning players constantly getting into flips. They arent trying to avoid them. They know that with the pot odds overlay and antes they could be as much as 10-20% +EV on a flip.
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