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5/10 Very odd Spot on river facing a X/ All in. Confused @@

hustlin Posts: 299Subscriber
edited September 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5/10 80~BB effective.
I have 2.2k. Villain has about ~800. edited.
Game is 8 handed. Quite tight as its mostly good solid regs.

Villain is younger early 30's asian male. I have no reads on him. I seen him here n there. He seems solid. Definitely better than your average player as far as I can tell.
He is TAG. I believe he is solid from my 2 hours playing with him.

Hero. Is up this session. Viewed as TIGHT. Have shown no bluffs/ no real aggression. I'm perceived as Solid. Villain has no reason to believe I bluff.

Villain CO bets $30. Hero flats A K on BTN. SB calls. 3 way.
SB is a fishier player. ( I flat tryna to get the SB in the hand)

Flop 863r

Villain Cbets $50
Hero Calls. SB folds. HU.

Turn K. ( Backdoor Hearts now)
Villain checks. Hero bets $155

River 7 ( Backdoor flush now on board)
Villain checks. Here bets $265. Villain quickly ships in like $570 total.
Hero?

Very confusing line by villain.

I have the A blocking the nut flush. I also believe if he had a backdoor flush draw. He seems like he would barrel this. Also Kx is a good barrel card. Seems like the villain would barrel these cards.
Also can villain ever be bluffing here?

I can have 54 for a straight here. Some sets. some 2 pairs like 78, 76. And I cant really see much bluff hands I have unless like 8x with a heart or something. I'm viewed as quite TIGHT and ABC
Im just very confused here as I literally cant put him on a hand that hes showing for value.

Comments

  • bhanson Posts: 8Subscriber
    SB has to be a huge VIP for flatting the top of your range pre vs CO to be better than just 3-betting. If they’re that splashy they’ll be flatting 3-bets cold as well.

    Are stack sizes ~1k or ~800? It says 1k, but postflop bets don’t add up.

    The flop distribution is really important. Naked backdoor flushes don’t make sense because they will barrel turn with no SDV, but a hand like 8xhh makes sense.

    If 8h is on flop then it’s much harder for him to have a flush because he shouldn’t have that many middle or bottom pairs in his flop 50% pot strategy. Care should be taken here, because there are a lot of live regs that are c-bet monkies that would bet flop with close to full range so they can show up with 65hh or 64hh as well.

    I think having the Ah only removes 1-2 combos of value, but may remove all of his bluffs. If you were really deep here, you could 3-bet all-in and he would have a really tough spot with any hand he can have.

    As played I would call any hand that has the 8h in it, although that card is difficult to have without also having a flush yourself. I would rather call 8h2x here than a set of 3s.

    I suspect that villain won’t bluff here without the Ah, and you beat no value, so I would fold.
    by 1hustlin
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    edited September 2018
    #1 move tables. 2/5 is better than this 5/10 with solid players

    #2 I wouldn't flat here with AK unless you had relative position on the fish. The action will be fish X, preflop raiser, then you.

    It is expected you raise with AK and if you start just flatting you unbalance your 3b range in position.

    Wow that is an odd play by him. If I was him @ 5/10 I would expect you NOT to have many Kx hands in your range. AK-KT you 3b. So if he picked a FD I'd expect a bet OTT. I would have. Either to price myself reasonably for odds or to bluff you especially if I have an over to the board like Q J because you shouldn't have a king here.

    15m later...

    Wow the only real value hand I can see here is a hand like 87 with no FD or 77 and he didn't want to bloat the pot OTT with a bet and risk being bluff raised. He is offering you ~5:1 with the river XR right?

    But folding getting these odds at this game has a future EV value impacting your image. If you fold here getting 5:1 you open yourself up to being bluffed later in similar spots.

    5m later....

    For once I am actually stumped. He shouldnt have any bluffs here. I'm calling though because of the fact you aren't supposed to have any Kings in your range and he might have a bluff catcher that can't beat your bluffing range except by XRing and evaluating your bet size. Another thing with the pot size and his stack size why wouldn't you shove the river with a strong hand. I know you are putting out a small value bet since he shouldnt have any of those draws. But he might perceive your hand as weak like 98 and he has 55 or 22 XCed AQ OTT and this is the only way for him to win the hand. Also I call to save my future EV. Folding here getting ~5:1 opens you up to future bluffs in similar spots. Then there is always the 10% spazz rule.

    At 2/5 $500 I would probably fold as they never bluff XR here and the good players don't think as deep as the thoughts above and will XC the turn with a flush often enough. I also don't play 5/10.
    by 1hustlin
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    bhanson said:
    SB has to be a huge VIP for flatting the top of your range pre vs CO to be better than just 3-betting. If they’re that splashy they’ll be flatting 3-bets cold as well.

    Are stack sizes ~1k or ~800? It says 1k, but postflop bets don’t add up.

    The flop distribution is really important. Naked backdoor flushes don’t make sense because they will barrel turn with no SDV, but a hand like 8xhh makes sense.

    If 8h is on flop then it’s much harder for him to have a flush because he shouldn’t have that many middle or bottom pairs in his flop 50% pot strategy. Care should be taken here, because there are a lot of live regs that are c-bet monkies that would bet flop with close to full range so they can show up with 65hh or 64hh as well.

    I think having the Ah only removes 1-2 combos of value, but may remove all of his bluffs. If you were really deep here, you could 3-bet all-in and he would have a really tough spot with any hand he can have.

    As played I would call any hand that has the 8h in it, although that card is difficult to have without also having a flush yourself. I would rather call 8h2x here than a set of 3s.

    I suspect that villain won’t bluff here without the Ah, and you beat no value, so I would fold.
    I tend to agree with you. But if he has a FD or pair +FD why wouldn't he bet the perfect turn bluff card unless he isn't as good as the poster describes.

    As for our hero holding the A and the K out there is removes 2/3rds of his FD range not 1/2 combos.

    I originally leaned on folding because I just never see bluff XRes in my 2/5 game but this is 5/10. 10% spazz, 5% my bluff range theory, X% it's 5/10, X% future EV loss folding here, to me is close enough for a call. But I don't play 5/10 so maybe it is closer to 2/5 than I think.

    by 1hustlin
  • hustlin Posts: 299Subscriber
    sorry, it was around $800 starting stack.

    Totally agree now should of 3bet AKo which is top end of your range there. FPS. thought maybe it was better get the fish in.

    #1) Yes dont normally play. but it was the only game at the time ... so why not lol
    #2) Yes now I see 3bet is superior .


    He is offering you ~5:1 with the river XR right? Yes

    I do know villain is capable of turning a middling hand into a bluff. Capable doesn't mean he necessarily will. I mean he will think a little on that level.


    Its pretty sick cause Kh is like perfect barreling card. I cant see why he wouldnt barrel that if he picked up equity.
    Also I like can never really have much Kx in my range too lol. And he must know my range is pretty damn tight here.

    I cant see much value hands.... something like 87 would possible X/C here. Something like 64h 65h is possible. But again Best barrel card ever. And also plan to X/R for value as well?? wouldnt villains just lead here or maybe just jam.


    Something like 55 or 98 turning into a bluff actually makes the most sense IMO. I mean he has something like 98xh. X/C Turn makes sense. My friend also said maybe he has like KxQh or like Kx10h. but again..... wouldnt those be a X/C on river. or Bet / Fold.




  • hustlin Posts: 299Subscriber
    The sick part is Im getting such great odds.
    My hand is under repped in a way. Middle of my range. My image is Solid n Tight.

    And the other part is I heard on podscasts that people just really don't bluff there entire stack. Not with total air.

    " Also I call to save my future EV. Folding here getting ~5:1 opens you up to future bluffs in similar spots. Then there is always the 10% spazz rule. " - and also this to factor in. such good odds but never ever have seen people in casino use this line as a bluff. but people do spazz........ but with this kind of line????

  • bhanson Posts: 8Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:

    I tend to agree with you. But if he has a FD or pair +FD why wouldn't he bet the perfect turn bluff card unless he isn't as good as the poster describes.
    Non top-pair + FD is a textbook x/c in most SRP situations. If you bet all of your pair + FD and non-showdown FD on the turn then you have no flushes on flush runouts. Pair + FD make good x/c because the hand can win at showdown and has equity when behind.
    Fuzzypup said:

    As for our hero holding the A and the K out there is removes 2/3rds of his FD range not 1/2 combos.
    This is assuming he x/c all of his Axhh combos on the turn. I bet most of his Axhh will barrel this Kx turn. The combos of Axhh that will x/c are the ones with pairs.
    Fuzzypup said:

    I originally leaned on folding because I just never see bluff XRes in my 2/5 game but this is 5/10. 10% spazz, 5% my bluff range theory, X% it's 5/10, X% future EV loss folding here, to me is close enough for a call. But I don't play 5/10 so maybe it is closer to 2/5 than I think.
    "Future loss of EV" by folding getting good odds is not a thing. No one will remember this river fold and they don't even know what hero has.

    5/10 is my primary limit and yes people bluff more, but the population still chronically underbluffs rivers.
    by 1hustlin
  • BartBart Posts: 5,917AdministratorLeadPro
    edited September 2018
    BTW @bhanson is not me.

    This is almost a 100% frequency 3 bet preflop in this configuration unless someone is so absurdly bad in the blinds that you wand to keep them in the pot. But even then, you dont have AA or KK so I wouldnt flat here.

    I think its actually worse that you have the A here. It means that your blocking your opponent running some sort of nut flush card bluff. (real Bhanson)
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,433Subscriber
    bhanson said:
    Non top-pair + FD is a textbook x/c in most SRP situations. If you bet all of your pair + FD and non-showdown FD on the turn then you have no flushes on flush runouts. Pair + FD make good x/c because the hand can win at showdown and has equity when behind.

    This is assuming he x/c all of his Axhh combos on the turn. I bet most of his Axhh will barrel this Kx turn. The combos of Axhh that will x/c are the ones with pairs.

    "Future loss of EV" by folding getting good odds is not a thing. No one will remember this river fold and they don't even know what hero has.

    5/10 is my primary limit and yes people bluff more, but the population still chronically underbluffs rivers.
    I get what you are saying here. It's funny because @ 2/5 these concerns are pretty much non-existant. No one pays attention. Interesting you mention the X Pair + FD. I can see TP+FD for a balance and Axs as a balance because you don't want to get blown off your equity and XRing the turn is an option if you also balance with big hands. I guess it depends on your style. @ 2/5 people tend to XC as you said and bet their Axs no pair but it isn't for balance it's due to their perception.

    So even at 5/10 people aren't aware. WOW. I am 100% aware of who folds what where. I remember many a player who folded to a min-raise during a hand and I use that against them when air. In some of my 2/5 games I felt people became aware of my foldiness because just shit was running bad. And I used it to play some hands backwards and get people to bluff at pots they shouldn't. Are you saying all players are unaware of the better ones of small things like this? In my 2/5 experience the better players don't seem to notice but some of the fish do. But it could simply be my perception due to the quantity of hands I play vs better players than a loose bad player.

    So all is fine and dandy. But still why XRAI the river. It is the worse card that can come to make you not bet. So why XR? If he has the flush it's disguised. And if you have a straight you would pay.

    Maybe I am overestimating most 5/10 players.

  • hustlin Posts: 299Subscriber
    ^ ur probably overly observant ( its a good thing). you see it and you use it against them
    however I say 95% of villains either not use the information. Or just lazy/ dont want to break from their comfort zone.

    The X/R is the sick part. I really don't think villain will balance by X/C with NFD.


    Its weird. Maybe villain had a hand like KK? and thought that flushes are tiny part of my range. But I could have the straight..


    - Also whats interesting is.........
    Someone announced to the table that did I fold a straight? - I said nopppeee. And villain quietly said straight will be goood........ ( believe he was being honest on his part)
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