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turn nut sizing?

two villians are the big fish in the game. one is a calling station the other likes to super trap then make hige cr on river

v1- stn in bb has about $175
v2- utg limps calls has about 1600
hams 1700

hams btn J9hh call sb checks option

flop Td 8 4d. ch to utg he bets 20 i call sb folds bb cr to 75 utg calls i call

turn 7h. bb goes all in for like 40. utg raises to 105

whats my sizing ?
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Comments

  • BartBart Posts: 5,820AdministratorLeadPro
    edited September 2018
    First of all if I read this preflop, there was one limper right, just under the gun? Usually I am going to ignore that limp and raise this hand to $25. I would overlimp two limpers.

    This spot actually kind of sucks. I mean the only hand you would raise here would be J9, correct? You don't have TT and mostly not 88, but even with some 88 and 44 you are just calling I assume, but you have probably done a fair amount of 3 betting on the flop too.

    Whats the strength of player type in UTG? Is he a reg, could he have AA,KK here or is this a set most likely? Sizing sort of indicates a hand that isnt super strong but just wants to bump you out of the pot. I don't like slowplaying that much but I wonder if you raise here if it will just be too damned strong with one guy already all-in.. I mean your hand screams of J9 and any player with half a brain should be folding 1 pair here. If the guy has a set you can get a bet out of him and a raise on a clean river.

    Then again this is 5/5 where your you are playing 90% value.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    vil who limped is one of these guys that can have 64 suited or aces. if im on the button with a weak suited implied odds hand when he limps utg i just call

    on this turn he can have all sets two pairs Overpairs flush draws etc.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,820AdministratorLeadPro
    Not sure why he would raise with a flush draw here if he has to beat the guy in the main pot that is all-in. Still I like a call here the more I think about it and get in a raise on the river. My sense is that hes just not that strong on turn with his sizing (a lot of 1 pair hands). Bart
  • hustlin Posts: 279Subscriber
    Raising to lol $300-$400. They’re big fishes looking to get more money into the pot. Not folding...

    U rep something like 87 or so.

    Bomb it! Pretty sure your going to get looked up quite often
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,298Subscriber
    If you raise here 40% of the time you are chopping. 10% of the time the all in has a slowplayed set. 50% of the time he has the understraight.

    21 outs on the river kill your play.
    The turn raiser's play is odd. Seems like he bet a draw and got there or has some TPTK? Really weird for him to have a set or 2 pair. T7s?. Good news is T7s can't be also a FD.

    If you call. The pot will be $450 on the river. How much do you expect him to call? On a safe card you can probably get ~$250 average assuming he calls 100% of the time OTR.

    So what if you raise now. Pot is $350 after his $105 bet. The all in can have..... whatever. Say you raise just to $350. How is he going to fold 2 pair or a set, if he has this, with $250 to call to win $800. I doubt he can. You have position so he plays more face up here on the river.

    So if he has a boat and hits he will probably bet large. You can make a decision to fold then.
    If he has a set/2 pair and a scare card came not pairing the board you already made the river money. Now you can make extra money.
    If he has a set/2 pair and a non scare card came you can make more money.

    If he has your hand no diamonds (66% of the time) and the board comes a diamond you might be able to bluff him off of his hand. I have actually done this in this very spot with the exact same hand. The board made a 4 card straight, I bet and got small raised. The guy seemed uncomfortable and I was fairly certain he didnt have the diamonds because he checked his hole cards when the flop came down. We had the same 1 card straight. I took time to think, I asked him how much the bet was, how much he had left. River came a diamond and I casually put it all in. He folded face up his 9x hand. I was OOP in this hand. So this is a consideration.

    I prefer raising here being optimistic about this player if he is a pretty standard bad player in the game. If he is a tough aggressive player I might wait till the river as he can fold OOP way more hands than a bad player. In this case say a non-diamond safe card comes down. My story screams diamonds. And since it is more likely a safe card comes I can make a river raise looking like a bluff when the FD misses. Only vs the tough player.

    I try to decide which streets I am getting value from balancing it with how I can getting a better read on my opponent playing into his tendencies.
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