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5/5 JJ TP+open ended. Flop play in 3b pot

$1165 eff. Villain is a younger guy who I played with a while ago. Not many reads. Remember he was ok, that's about it. He's new to the table and we're playing short handed. He's been opening frequently the past few orbits.

5 or 6 handed

UTG $30 (not too unusual, but he does sometimes open for $25. His iso raises are $30-40), folds to H in SB w J J who raises $140, UTG calls.

$280

T 9 8

Hero bets $100 V raises $325 leaving $700 behind.

Shared this with some friends & am getting different opinions. Those who flat, what's your plan when there's a 3/4 PSB left OTT?

Comments

  • hustlin Posts: 284Subscriber
    hmmmmmm..

    As played for me personally. Jamming / calling are both options.

    I personally prefer jamming. You an an over pair with a nut OESD. + A backdoor flush. + blocker to the nut straight.

    The board is kinda dynamic. I mean your not doing the best against a value raising range. However if villains has some Flush draws + some 10x such a A10, K10. Your looking pretty good.

    The pot is $700 bucks. Villian has 1 PSB bet left. I mean I prefer just jamming here. You can call but you would be left with less than 1 PSB on the turn. Essentially committing yourself .
  • CycleV Posts: 923Subscriber
    Interesting spot. He has 32 value hands that are beating us (or JJ for a likely chop): all PP 88+, T9s and 98s, and QJs. I'm not giving him 76s or T8s. Against that range we are 36%.

    If we add in JTs, 77, and broadway diamond draws AK/AQ/KQ (the J and T are accounted for), that's 11 more hands he could conceivably raise with, though I'm not convinced he would raise all of them. But if he does, we have 44%. Personally I don't see why he would raise AT/KT/QT.

    We could take KK and QQ out of this raising range if you like. Against a 3! pre and this board, he could just call the flop. This would get us to 48%.

    So it's not like our equity is bad, but against that range we have almost no fold equity, so I don't know what a jam accomplishes. Maybe the only hands he folds are 77 and KQdd, which we're ahead of anyway. Possible he'd fold bottom 2, but I sure wouldn't count on it. If he was going to fold QQ or KK he shouldn't have raised the flop.

    If we want to maximize FE, I might think about calling the flop raise and then jamming the turn. Any card 7 through Q should scare his overpairs, any diamond as well (if my range is correct, he only has 3 FD, and 3 combos of AA with a diamond that might get sticky). This line might get some of the hands that are beating us to fold ott that wouldn't fold otf.

    I'm actually not convinced a bet on this flop is ideal. I might only bet with AA+, KK sometimes. Any bluffs I had like A5s I would prob just c/f, this is a horrible board against someone who called a 3bet. But that's for another discussion. (And I haven't given it as much thought.)
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    agree with cycle here.
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