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Overpair in 3! Pot

Stoked Posts: 88Subscriber
$100 tournament. $20k starting stack. Level1 100/200. First orbit, so 20k effective

Utg LAG maniac who is known to hero opens UTG to 1200 (not unusual for this player with wide range). Unknown fishy looking V in MP flats. Folds to Hero in BU with Q Q 3! To 4200. LAG folds, MP calls.

Flop (9900): 2 3 J

MP now leads into me for 3000

H elects to just call.

Turn (15900): 9

MP bets again 4000 of his remaining $13k

H?

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

Comments

  • CycleV Posts: 604Subscriber
    Are rebuys allowed, and is he the type to fire multiple bullets? Makes a big difference. Mostly, if it's rebuy/reentry, and he really is a maniac, I'm fine with letting him punt. We raise ott, we might as well turn our cards face up and tell him TP is no good.
  • Stoked Posts: 88Subscriber
    edited September 15
    No rebuys.
    The maniac folded to 3! V is the unknown in MP that called the initial UTG raise from maniac and then also flatted my 3!
  • CycleV Posts: 604Subscriber
    Ah that changes it obv. We're losing to 9 flopped sets, 3 lol turned sets, and an unknown number of AA/KK cuz live poker. We're beating some Jacks. I just don't see all that many airballs, like how did the guy called 20% of his stack with 54s, or is he really going to punt with mid-PPs?

    Stack sizes are so darn awkward. Cuz his bet ott is so small, yet it sets up a great river shove. As much as it'd piss me off, I can see letting this one go. I can also see quitting tournaments forever. ;) (I actually love midsized MTTs.)
  • Stoked Posts: 88Subscriber
    edited September 17
    Thanks @CycleV
    I think that mathematically against a realistic range it’s close if I consider I’m going to be calling my whole stack on the river. I hated the spot cause the stacks were awkward and what bluffs does he really have? It also sucks to be playing such an inflated pot due to the large utg original raise size from maniac this stage of tournament. I thought if I was considering folding to a river shove then I should also consider just letting it go right there in the interest of stack preservation. I should be able to find less shitty spots to get in my remaining 70bb. If I call and fold river my stack is Not nearly so maneuverable.

    Calling felt like such a poor option given the implications to my stack, and shoving felt like a bit of a spew, like the worst hand that calls is maybe AJ and everything else beats me I think.

    I ended up letting it go. On the break the guy came up to me and asked me if I’d gotten away from AJ in the hand, and implied that he had an overpair. Results aside, I’m not sure if I love the fold or not. One of those spots that plays so much differently in a tournament than a cash game and I’m never really sure what is the best play when the edges are small and the survival dynamic of the tournament is in play.
    by 1CycleV
  • hustlin Posts: 115Subscriber
    Wait what? U guys will consider folding an over pair when the PSR is
    Less than 2??

    On this flop I’m fist pumping here hard on Jxx board.

    As played I would just jam the turn. Ur going to get looked up by AJ n possible KJ.which makes up so much of his range.
    If he gots 99 or JJ than GG
  • betgo Posts: 34Subscriber
    Flat call of flop is good on dry board. Shove turn.
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