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Hand vs Fransisco Post LATB ante

BartBart Posts: 5,416AdministratorLeadPro
edited September 20 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Played the following hand against Fransisco, a regular on the LATB Ante game. He probably is a winner in the game overall, plays tricky and can run some pretty big bluffs as well as value bet thinly.

Here is a hand that I played against him that was covered on a few CLP video from a few weeks ago.. Its at the 5th marker at 40:40 JJ vs KT.. http://www.crushlivepoker.com/videos/useful-pattern-recognition-at-the-mid-stakes


$8000 effective. 5-5-5 ant.. UTG straddle to $25.

Chris opens CO to $110, Fransisco calls on button, I 3 bet to $550 sb with A T , Chris folds, Fran calls.

$1250 FLOP: A J 4

I bet $400, Fran raises to $1600, I call.

$4850 TURN: 4. c/c/..

RIVER: 7

I check, Fran bets $3400.. me?

Comments

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,950SubscriberProfessional
    On the flop this is about the worst hand you can continue with. Can we ever 3bet as a bluff with our nut advantage? Or do we have too much value to turn into a bluff at this point?

    On the river, I can't imagine he's value-betting worse, we have better hands to call with, and has very few bluffs with this line. I'm folding the river pretty easily.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,752Subscriber
    im folding on river. he flats twice so his range may not be the top AK+, QQ+ hands but it includes JJ, A4, AQ hands.

    Not sure what he makes the flop raise with unless he has A5 here but Im sure he doesnt label u as a loose player. HE cant be calling pre and raise flop with a draw or air here.
  • TeamNOsleepTeamNOsleep Posts: 153Subscriber
    I’m thinking fold but the small flop bet could have induced a check raise.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,222Member
    edited September 21
    I haven’t watched many Fran hands but the few that I have show that he’d most likely 3! AJ JJ and all AQ+ BTN vs CO at a very high frequency so that would leave him with very few value combos when he gets to the river taking this line, yes A4s and 44 makes soooommmee sense but Fransisco is not one to leave money on the table so I don’t think he’d x back turn with that very often or if he ever decided to flat AJ twice IMO he will not take that line.
    And we can definitely find some bluffs here.
    I don’t think calling is a mistake.
  • kaboojie Posts: 209Subscriber
    edited September 21
    I find it difficult to put V on a accurate range of hands that he flats an open then a 3!, then raises the flop.

    For value hands, Pretty sure he 3!s pre all AK, AQ, JJ. Maybe he flats AJo, but I think he should 3! AJs. He can have 44 but only 1 combo left. There are no A4s combos and I’ll assume A4o is not his range here.

    For bluffs, I think KQs is 3! Pre. Maybe he flats KQo? We might be able to add 2 combos QTs with bdfd.

    I’m not sure what history you 2 have, but maybe he thinks your 3! Range here is very wide and he will raise ATs and A9s on the flop?A bit of a stretch, but maybe?

    In all, I think both his value and bluff range here is narrow and a bit of a guess. You mention he can value bet thin and run big bluffs. We’re getting nearly 2.5-1 on a call and need to be good like 29%. I’m not thrilled about it, but I think this is a call.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,752Subscriber
    yea, thinking maybe this hand requires some past knowledge of fransisco.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,962Subscriber
    Default would be to call most aces I suppose. A5s (and other wheels if you squeeze them pre) could be preferred but since the line doesn't make any sense and the 5-5-5 game plays very wild from what I have seen, I would call a little more than GTO would suggest. Of course very hard to anticipate what solver would do since double flatting pre and then raising flop shouldn't really be a thing but I doubt we can fold too many aces.

    So call as an "exploit" with any ace (that checks river) and fold AT without reads/ignoring pool tendencies/dynamics. Wheel Axs should call for sure, blocking more trips and no gutters
  • TeamNOsleepTeamNOsleep Posts: 153Subscriber
    So what are results ?? @bart
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    It may be possible, given this line, that this is a sheer bluff.

    I think the call is fine on the flop. A4s is a possibility, but there is just one combo left of that, and then no combos left on the turn. Also add in to the fact that there is a small percentage that he 3bets A4s preflop. We have the BD royal draw and he really shouldn't have AQ or AK here. Our small sizing could have also induced a bluff on the flop.

    When we flat on the flop, the board is dry enough that IMO we could have AA and JJ. This could definitely play into the turn and river play. Most players are not going to check river behind with a value hand as strong as AA or JJ, which could go into his mind. When we check the river, he may very well think that the pot is up for grabs. What bluffs does he have? KQs, QTs, KTs that all have gutshots + BDFDs.

    He may also get a little frisky with 54s or 64s. 64s seems like likely, but 54s does make for a solid, theoretical bluff. Yes, this is a poor spot to execute said bluff against a 3bettor on an A-hi flop, but he may not know the difference. 44 could also be a possibility and the first value hand that jumps to mind when he suddenly checks the turn. But that's one combo. We would need 1/3 of a combo of a bluff if 44 is the only value hand that he has.

    Where does this hand rank in our range? If we play AA/JJ/AK/AQ this same way (I'm not sure we'd play AJ this way), we have 30 combos of hands before we get to ATs. If we don't play AA/JJ this way, then it's still 24. Thing is, the way this hand is played seems very polarizing, where ATs is basically the same as AK and AQ.

    Despite thinking this is a bluff, we have so many Ax hands in our range that I just don't think we should be able to blindly call with all of them. The MDF is 62%, but the line and the player make me think we should defend even more than that (ignoring chops, because of the polarized nature of the line). I think ATs winds up being in that last tier of hands that we'd have to fold off. Reason being is that ATs blocks a couple of his potential bluff hands. I would put A5s ahead of ATs because we block a couple more value hands. I'd probably even put a hand like A9s above ATs simply for not blocking a couple of potential bluffs. I think it becomes a tough fold, but I don't think the EV is much different either way.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,416AdministratorLeadPro
    TeamNOsleep said:
    So what are results ?? @bart
    Ill talk about it on the podcast on Tuesday.
  • TeamNOsleepTeamNOsleep Posts: 153Subscriber
    Bart said:
    TeamNOsleep said:
    So what are results ?? @bart
    Ill talk about it on the podcast on Tuesday.
    Thanks
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