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TPTK Facing C/R in a 3b Pot

f0xr Posts: 52Subscriber
2/5, villain is the effective stack with $800. He's a mawg, unknown to me. He hasn't been too active so far, and I really haven't seen any relevant hands.

Utg limps, utg1 limps, villain raises in mp to $20. I 3b to $75 on the button with A Q . Villain calls.

Flop ($167) Q 6 4 Check, I bet $110, villain check raises to $400. He has just over $300 behind.

I posted this hand on Slack, and the discussion was how to play this flop and turn. Folding seems pretty exploitable, villain isn't repping much. I pretty much discount QQ-AA based on his preflop sizing over two limps.

I think he has way too many heart draws here. But what's the best play? We have no fold equity I would assume. So jamming doesn't seem to accomplish much.

On the other hand, calling the flop and folding incorrectly on the turn if a heart falls is a disaster. We would be getting an incredible price, but it's hard to find a hand we beat.

@pokertime wondered how @bart and @Captain Ki would play this.

Thanks!
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Comments

  • JLBJ Posts: 86Subscriber
    edited September 22
    Tough spot. You’re a little too deep to feel comfortable just getting it in with top pair, especially against an unknown opponent.

    There’s no value in just calling with so little behind. Should be all-in or fold. This is a marginal spot. You are either crushed by KK, 66 or 44 (some might fold the smaller pairs pre, but you are deep enough where some people might call, especially if he marks you for an overpair and thinks he can stack you if he hits), OR you’re a favorite (but not overwhelming) over some flush draw/combo draw.

    His larger sizing makes me lean toward some type of draw, but I don’t think it’s a bad mistake to just fold against an unknown.

    It doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but I’d rather make it a little bigger pre, lower the SPR and make it easier to happily stack off with top pair, top kicker.
    by 1f0xr
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,223Member
    edited September 23
    Why would you want fold equity if you think he has too may flush draws in his range?
    And if that’s the case then wouldn’t he call off with all his draws once you jam?
    by 2f0xr Clock
  • Sonny Posts: 298Subscriber
    edited September 23
    I'll preface this by saying I think I'm probably the worlds biggest nit...

    I don't love this spot and would be leaning towards a fold. Once an average MAWG who you said hasn't been very active, and you have zero history with, check raises you for more than half his stack, I don't think TPTK is going to be the best hand here that often.
    Lots of guys are flatting with AA these days since 4 bets are pretty rare, and almost always AA or KK.
    I think if you had AQ off with the Ace of Hearts its a snap fold.
    I don't think he has a combo draw either, I think if he has a draw its pretty much only the nut flush draw. I guess A K could technically be considered a "combo" draw, but I dont think he has a straight draw with the flush draw.
    It is also possible that hes free rolling with A Q.

    His preflop sizing is kind of small, however I think its possible that he bets $20 with AA as to hope to get some action and possibly get 3 bet.

    You loose to AA, KK. QQ, 66, 44 and are not doing great against A Q. I realize that range is pretty narrow since we block some of that, but I really don't think a guy who has been kinda tight up until now, calls a 3 bet, and then check raises essentally all in with worse than AQ.

    It sucks but I would fold.
    by 1f0xr
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,752Subscriber
    i agreed with the some random slacker who said we should be shoving mcshove shove on the flop.
    by 1f0xr
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Seems like a spot in Omaha where you can call flops in hopes to see a safe turn card and then get the money in.

    He isn't repping AA or KK, and I doubt a random MAWG is iso-raising 44 or 66 from MP with two players already having limped in. There is 1 combo of QQ that he could have, but there is also AQ KQ AK. He could also be spazzing with non AQhh hands.

    So I'd flat and GII on non heart turns. If a heart does fall on the turn, I think we just have to give him credit and fold. And if we think about it, it isn't that big of a mistake to get bluffed out on the turn. He would have to call a large 3bet preflop, check/raise a wet flop with nothing or Qx, and then continue the bluff with no fold equity when the obvious draw gets in. Random MAWG do not have that kind of heart. And the circumstances that would have to line up perfectly would be so astronomical that we just shouldn't worry about it much since the scenario won't come up hardly ever.
    by 1f0xr
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,223Member
    edited September 23
    He could be spazzing with an under pair because he thinks you have AK so calling now and folding turn could be a disaster.
    It seems like the entire plan for the hand was “3! pre flop top pair bet and hopefully take it down with a bet”
    Don’t mean to be harsh and please do not get offended.
    The only hand I’d be worried about is KK but I would still jam because his range contains more draws than hands that beat you.
    by 1f0xr
  • f0xr Posts: 52Subscriber
    Letmewin1 said:
    Why would you want fold equity if you think he has too may flush draws in his range?
    And if that’s the case then wouldn’t he call off with all his draws once you jam?
    Yes, he would certainly call off with draws. I guess that's my question, and I probably didn't word it correctly to explain what I mean. Is it a good thing to just get the money in against a draw, since he won't be making a mistake by calling? I understand that getting more money in when we have the best hand seems like it couldn't be wrong, but is it the best play? Like disregarding the possibility of him having some other hand for a second, if he turns over K Q , is moving all in on the flop the best play? If so, why? Because, this.....
    ohsnapzbrah said:
    Seems like a spot in Omaha where you can call flops in hopes to see a safe turn card and then get the money in.

    He isn't repping AA or KK, and I doubt a random MAWG is iso-raising 44 or 66 from MP with two players already having limped in. There is 1 combo of QQ that he could have, but there is also AQ KQ AK. He could also be spazzing with non AQhh hands.

    So I'd flat and GII on non heart turns. If a heart does fall on the turn, I think we just have to give him credit and fold. And if we think about it, it isn't that big of a mistake to get bluffed out on the turn. He would have to call a large 3bet preflop, check/raise a wet flop with nothing or Qx, and then continue the bluff with no fold equity when the obvious draw gets in. Random MAWG do not have that kind of heart. And the circumstances that would have to line up perfectly would be so astronomical that we just shouldn't worry about it much since the scenario won't come up hardly ever.
    I don't play PLO much at all, so I'm not really familiar with this concept in practice but I have heard @bart mention it on the podcast different times. If I'm understanding correctly, the idea is that if you have a straight or flush on the flop and you're certain someone has a set, you just call rather than trying to get the money in. And then if the board pairs on the turn, you can fold because your equity has gone to 0%.

    I guess this situation wouldn't occur very often in NL, but that was the reason I had a question about this hand. Ranges and possible hands can be debated obviously, but if we assume that there are no hands we beat except flush draws, why are we just getting it in against that range on the flop?

    I apologize if this is a dumb question, because I'm honestly struggling to wrap my mind around this concept. But that is my real question, if he only has better hands and heart draws, should we jam this flop?

    Maybe another way to put it, if we have $3000 behind, are you still jamming? If he shows you K Q ? Because that hand has 46.4% equity against us on the flop and we really can never bet enough to make his call incorrect.

  • f0xr Posts: 52Subscriber
    Letmewin1 said:
    He could be spazzing with an under pair because he thinks you have AK so calling now and folding turn could be a disaster.
    It seems like the entire plan for the hand was “3! pre flop top pair bet and hopefully take it down with a bet”
    Don’t mean to be harsh and please do not get offended.
    The only hand I’d be worried about is KK but I would still jam because his range contains more draws than hands that beat you.
    No it's cool, I'm not offended at all.

    Again, ranges are obviously debatable and there's no real way to know for certain. I do think the sizing pre rules out premium pairs almost entirely, but more history with this guy could show otherwise. I can't know for sure right now.

    My main question though is still if his range is only flush draws and better hands, are we still jamming? I understand that folding to a worse hand on the turn is a disaster. I'm not ignoring that as valid point. I'm just trying to grasp the concept of why we want to get it in with a draw.

  • BartBart Posts: 5,420AdministratorLeadPro
    edited September 24
    I think that is a little on the weak side to fold here even vs a MAWG. You say yourself that you think that he has too many flush draws.

    Just like you don't think that he has AA-KK do to preflop sizing and flat, I dont think he has 66 or 44 either. He would have to raise like that, call your 3 bet AND go fast on the flop. With the pot size and you having 1/3 of a bet left after a call I would just go all-in. If we treat the raise to $400 as an all-in for $700. So we are getting about 1.62-1 or need 38% equity. I crunched it and gave him a range of KdKc, 6d6c, 4d4c, AhTh+, Ah5h, KhQh, QhJh.. so 7 draws, and 3 made hands consisting of 2/7 sets and one KK. I got about 40.8%. Obviously if you adjust the ranges you can get a different output. If you put in 3/7 sets and take out KK with these 7 draws you get 38.5%. But I think this is a tight range for villain. I would go with it.

    As far as calling the flop to put it in on non heart turns like in PLO, I don't think that this applies here. We can make that play when we have a combo draw and am almost certain that our opponent has a set. The pot is going to be way way too large to make this play here.. he doesnt ONLY have flush draws and sets here all the time.

    image
    by 1f0xr
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,081Subscriber
    @f0xr as I told you before, I'm jamming this flop all day.

    The key is his pre-flop play.
    I think it's EXTREMELY unlikely that V has QQ+ with that open sizing over a limp.
    It's also not very likely that your typical V will iso raise 44 or 66 over a limp.
    Because it's a 3bet pot it makes KK or AA almost impossible!
    This is because the only reason for him raise so small over a limper would be to get super tricky :eek: to get 3bet so that he can 4bet - way, way out there and didn't happen.
    I just completely throw away QQ+

    His most likely holdings are Qx including some broadway Q x and of course some A x that he would raise pre.
    We're CRUSHING that and he's not folding - so let's get it in!!! :lol: :tu:
    f0xr said:
    [quote="Letmewin1;113689"]

    Maybe another way to put it, if we have $3000 behind, are you still jamming? If he shows you K Q ? Because that hand has 46.4% equity against us on the flop and we really can never bet enough to make his call incorrect.

    No, we're not. That would be WAWB situation. He's never calling $3K with a hand we beat.
    With only 300 behind, he's pot committed himself, so we got him!
    by 1f0xr
  • hustlin Posts: 182Subscriber
    interesting spot. its kinda close.
    I dont mind a fold here at all.
    Calling is fine too. I just think folding might be slightly better than calling off here against a MAWG
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,264Subscriber
    edited September 25
    I lean on folding for the following reasons.

    #1 unknown MAWG. We have no idea how he plays. He doesnt know how we play. So you have to average out the player types. What is the average MAWG like? Usually tight uncreative.

    #2 Is he raising this flop with FDs? Maybe A Q comes to mind. What about sets. QQ is possible but less likely. What about 66 and 44? Very likely. He has to call $55 to win hero's $725... Hey that's a lot to one I can set mine. KK? Unlikely as he fears QQ but more so AA. AA more likely has he thinks you have KK.

    #3 His bet is pretty committing. If you shove he has to call $300 more to win $1200 if my math is right. Easy FD call.

    If we had a read fine but we dont we need to use averages of behaviors and most people aren't crazy.

    So AA (4), QQ(1), 2x draw (2), sets (6)..... and now the bluffs.... say he calls with 13 FD cards and say he bluffs with all of them which I highly doubt. Basically you are in a fucked situation. You invested $185 and have $615 to lose. Easy fold. I weighted down his ranges according to how often I think he will play these hands for a raise.

    So we invested $185 and basically continuing is committing. You have to be ahead here 38%. So if this was me raising here it's one of those scenarios where I am indifferent to you going all in or not.

    Because he is unknown many of these bluffs don't exist within the average MAWG calling a 3b. His one big bluff A Q I would say.

    AND this is just 2/5 and he only has $800. If this was a $1k buy in game I could give more leverage to a bluff range. But he bought in for $500 which leans on a more predictable MAWG

    I do think all those bluffs save maybe 1-3 are not in his range.
  • f0xr Posts: 52Subscriber
    Results

    I called the flop. Turn was an offsuit 7. Villain jammed, I called. He had K T
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