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Did I leave money on the table?

Sonny Posts: 280Subscriber
edited October 11 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Bellagio $2/5 $500 cap
5 handed

I open MP with 7 7 to $15 about $600 deep
Folds to button who 3 bets to $40 with about $410 eff
Blinds fold
I call

The button was a very tight young Kid from China and spoke almost no English. I figured he would be loose since he cashed in a $1k Baccart chip to buy into the game, but after playing with him for 2-3 hours he seemed very very tight. The only hand I saw him play was a hand where he raised UTG picked up 2 callers flopped top set of Aces and lead for nearly pot. Everyone folded and he showed. So when I call with my 7's its 100% a set mine, I dont think I have the best hand. I think since hes 3 betting me that he has a very strong hand. I don't know if his sizing indicates if he wants a call, or just doesnt know much of what hes doing...

Flop
9 7 2

I check
He bets $50
I call

I had put him on a very strong hand so I think he has a lot of big overpairs here. Maybe AK. I think if he has a Diamond he will keep betting all these pairs. I actually think that there is a good chance he'll keep betting over pairs without a Diamond for protection also. I dont really think I need to bet to protect my own hand that much. I suspect hes just drawing to two outs. I'm probably not folding this shallow unless a Diamond appears and if a Diamond comes its an easy fold to aggression. If a Diamond doesnt show up I'm pretty much never folding anyway, and I do expect him to keep firing since I could very easily be on a draw.

Turn
4

I check
He checks again unfortunately

River
2 - Favorable!

No way I can let this check through. I know weaker players will check back one pair hands a lot. So I decide to try to make it look like I was chasing a Diamond draw and now lead $200 into $180 to make it look like I'm bluffing. He only has like $320 in his stack. Would just overshoving all in accomplish the same thing as the $200 bet? I don't love his check on the turn, I think he might be scared that I flopped a flush? However since he did 3 bet pre, I think its very possible he has JJ+ and might make a call with these big over pairs.

I feel like I should have probably just fast played it from the start. Probably check raise the flop? Its possible he has AK of Diamonds and we're in bad shape, but I'm probably not folding a set in this spot when he only has $410 to start the hand and he was the pre flop 3 bettor.

Spoiler:
He wound up flat calling with A 3. So he flopped the nuts. I was slow playing him but it turns out he was slow playing me. I don't understand his check on the turn with his hand, after I call the 3 bet pre and call the flop. I obviously have something here and he should be betting. Sure he blocks the nut draw, but I think most players will call a bet on the turn with just the K. But I guess it just shows he really was pretty clueless, so I know I shouldnt think to hard about it.
I think he calls an all in here on the end with the nut flush, but its pretty hard to believe he has the nut flush considering how he played it. I see him playing AA or KK with a Diamond like this. My perceived range only has him on AK or AQ of Diamonds to have a flush, so thats too narrow to put him on a flush... But I also couldn't believe he 3 bet me pre with A3 suited. He seemed way tighter that that.

Comments

  • CycleV Posts: 635Subscriber
    I'm not surprised a tight player checked back this turn, whether he has a diamond or not. He's worried about a flush I guess. Expecting the check back, I would c/r the flop and look to jam non-diamond turns. 150-160 sets up the jam.
    by 1Sonny
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,208Subscriber
    XRAI OTF is a good option for the following reasons

    #1 he won't put you on the nut flush.
    #2 if he realizes ranges you have way more A K× hands and the like than FDs in a 3b pot.
    #3 the set XRAI balances the times you XRAI with the above hand I mentioned.
    #4 at best he is calling one more street from you or 2 small bets on 2 streets. But he will stack off a hand like K K or K K just from shock and #2.
    #5 he is young and has less emotional control.
    #6 he played a -EV game = he is a gambler and more likely to stack off.
  • hustlin Posts: 164Subscriber
    ^ fuzzypup makes some really good valid points.

    100% X/R flop. start building that pot and get the money in. villain will call you the widest on the flop. Also no matter what he has , you have equity!
    By X/R flop you get the stacks perfect for a turn shove.
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