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QQ on the turn from SB facing overbet shove in a 3-bet HU pot

This was one of the critical hands for my session yesterday at Commerce Casino. It was $5/$10 NLHE. Effective stack was $1785 and I had the villain covered.

One of the recreational players from MP open limped. The villain raised to $50 from the button. I don't have history playing with him but he is a young Euro kid that is probably playing for profit. This means he may have a wider iso-raising range than normal because he has incentive to isolate the weak player in position.

My hand was Qc Qs (black Queens) from the SB. I raised to $200. BB folds, MP limper folds, Villain from Button calls.

Pot is heads-up for $415.

Flop: Jd 3h 4h
Analysis: I expect to be ahead of my villain's range on this flop with QQ. His range consists of many Jx type hands, from J8s to AJ. His effective nuts are going to be sets like JJ, 33, and 44. He also can have some flush draws with Hearts and straight draws like 56 suited. He can have a lot pairs from 22-JJ too. Clear value bet and I want to go for the larger sizing (about 65% pot) because I expect to get called by worse very often.

I bet $250, Villain calls.

Turn: 8d, pot is now $915.
Analysis: This card gives my opponent some additional draws. If my opponent decided to float with a hand like Ad5d and 9dTd, he now has a lot of equity with this card. The only hands that this card improved would be 88 and J8s, a very small part of his overall range that called my flop c-bet.

However, he only has about $1330 remaining and if I bet, I feel that I would be turning my hands face-up. I feel my opponent can just put me on QQ-AA and only put in more money if he is ahead.

Also, if I check, I can induce a bluff from his draws and maybe get him to bet AJ for value.

I decided to check. Villain shoves all-in for $1335.

What do you think I should do?
by 1hustlin

Comments

  • BartBart Posts: 5,833AdministratorLeadPro
    Is he actually that light, calling 3 bets with J8s? I mean thats pretty terrible.

    In general I would use a bit smaller sizing on the flop and turn. But if we got here on the turn I would still be betting. You hand needs some protection and if you want to check do it with a hand like AA:h: (best candidate). As played turn all-in is ridiculously polarizing I can't imagine in a million years how we can fold. Bart
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 84Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    @Bart Okay, so let’s say I took the bet-bet line with smaller bet sizing, like 1/3 pot on flop and 1/3 pot on turn. How would I respond to turn raise? Am I always folding because my villain is very unlikely to bluff raise with a draw?

    He actually had Jc8c! I was surprised myself when I saw that at showdown.

    I'm not going to know the exact combos my opponent have in terms value and bluffs but I estimate he has 12-15 combos of value hands, about 9 combos of sets and 3 combos of 2 pairs. I also believe he has a lot of draws, especially Ace high flush draws and straight draws like 56 suited. I estimate 10-15 combos as well.

    Based on the math, I need about 40% equity to make this call. I ran PokerCruncher and it's close: like maybe 42% - 43% equity.

    At the table, I obviously could not do all this math but I definitely thought it was close. I tank called because he looked somewhat uncomfortable. He unconsciously gulped twice (small but visible), he didn't want to look at me and he just stared at the board the whole time.

    The other factor that swayed me toward calling was how if my villain had a set like 33 and 44, with a possible flush draw, he would raise at some of the time. If this is true, then he may actually have more bluffs than value hands.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 252Pro
    Will, I agree with Bart that the flop sizing should be small. I like a sizing of something like $150 here. As for the turn, I can see cases for checking or betting, but I prefer betting vs most live players. As played, I think calling is pretty clear here. It's very hard to make a case for folding. The V can really have a wide range for taking this line, hoping that we had AK and now we are giving up. I wouldn't necessarily range him on J8s. More likely 88 for playing this way, and also 44.33 should be discounted. AJ also probably wouldn't shove. I'd range him on JJ/88 and draws here mostly.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 252Pro
    As for betting or checking, I would check more vs very solid and aggressive opponents, and lean towards betting vs weaker and passive villains.
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 84Subscriber
    Thank you so much for the feedback. I’ll definitely try to bet for value with smaller bet sizing in similar situations.
  • fishcake Posts: 951Subscriber
    Bet small on flop for reasons stated. I like a bet on the turn. Snap call as played. QQ is so high up in your range here. Him having J8 means he's not a good pro lol.
  • hustlin Posts: 289Subscriber
    Man this is a very tough spot here.

    With the PSR and w a flush draw out there.

    Do agree w the small sizing. Makes the most sense against regs.

    As played kind of sucks cause you rep so much strength by 3bet pre and betting large on flop.
    Based on the board run out. Villain should have enough bluffs like 910h, Q10h, K10h, some Axh that would play this way too.
  • Superfly Posts: 219Subscriber
    Suggest betting 25-30% on flop and 65-70% on turn. If he still comes over the top with shove on turn, you can safely discount many of his bluffs. Most grinders playing for profit that I know won’t wildly bluff their stack vs thinking opponent who 3bets pre and continues to show strength post, especially when no obvious draws hit on turn. They reserve such aggressive shoves for when they hit something unexpected and think they will get paid off. So your decisions are somewhat easier with small flop bet and continuation bet on turn.
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 84Subscriber
    @Superfly That is a good line to try for future spots like this one. I'm not going to know for sure because I never played with him before. However, this guy fits the stereotype of someone who is playing for profit. He is very well prepared when it comes to topping off his stack. He has the white $100 chips ready to go in a small bag. He carries a backpack with stuff he needs, like most grinders would. Doesn't talk much with other people around him, typically has his headphones on, etc.
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