This was one of the critical hands for my session yesterday at Commerce Casino. It was $5/$10 NLHE. Effective stack was $1785 and I had the villain covered.
One of the recreational players from MP open limped. The villain raised to $50 from the button. I don't have history playing with him but he is a young Euro kid that is probably playing for profit. This means he may have a wider iso-raising range than normal because he has incentive to isolate the weak player in position.
My hand was Qc Qs (black Queens) from the SB. I raised to $200. BB folds, MP limper folds, Villain from Button calls.
Pot is heads-up for $415.
Flop: Jd 3h 4h
Analysis: I expect to be ahead of my villain's range on this flop with QQ. His range consists of many Jx type hands, from J8s to AJ. His effective nuts are going to be sets like JJ, 33, and 44. He also can have some flush draws with Hearts and straight draws like 56 suited. He can have a lot pairs from 22-JJ too. Clear value bet and I want to go for the larger sizing (about 65% pot) because I expect to get called by worse very often.
I bet $250, Villain calls.
Turn: 8d, pot is now $915.
Analysis: This card gives my opponent some additional draws. If my opponent decided to float with a hand like Ad5d and 9dTd, he now has a lot of equity with this card. The only hands that this card improved would be 88 and J8s, a very small part of his overall range that called my flop c-bet.
However, he only has about $1330 remaining and if I bet, I feel that I would be turning my hands face-up. I feel my opponent can just put me on QQ-AA and only put in more money if he is ahead.
Also, if I check, I can induce a bluff from his draws and maybe get him to bet AJ for value.
I decided to check. Villain shoves all-in for $1335.
What do you think I should do?