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Maximizing value with bottom set 2's, HU pot in position

WillHungPoker Posts: 88Subscriber
edited October 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Another interesting hand from $5/$10 NLHE Cash Game. Effective stack is about $1300.

Everyone folds to me from the CO. I have 2c2d and I raised to $35. Only the BB calls. Pot is $75.

Flop: Ts 4s 2h
BB checked. I bet $35, BB raised to $130. I thought for about a minute and decided to call.

Analysis: Since I have one of the sets, the only realistic hand that is beating me right now is set of 4's. If he has that hand, I will most l will probably lose my entire stack anyway.

I expect most of his raising range to be top pair with strong kicker like KT or AT, along with a lot of flush draws, like Axs with Spades, KsJs, KsQs, etc.

I feel that I am better off flat calling and piling the money on a blank turn.

Turn: Th
Pot is $335. BB bets $220. I took a long minute before calling again.

Analysis: At this point, he is very likely to have Tx with a strong kicker. I could value raise to something like $550 and get stacks into the middle. However, during the game, I decided to flat call to let him bluff the river with his missed draws. I called.

River: Jh
Pot is now $775. My villain checked. My action? He has about $950 left.

So 2 questions: 1) should I have raised the turn to get the money in on the turn? 2) How should I play the river? How much should I bet based on the way the hand is being played?

Comments

  • BartBart Posts: 5,974AdministratorLeadPro
    Any reads on BB? I doubt that the villain in the hand here now has a T after this action (check raising flop, and betting turn) I mean a T should really bet the river here. I actually think its more likely that he may have missed a spade draw or possibly backed into a J. I think there is some viability to betting super small, possibly to induce some sort of spazz and always get called by a J, 88-99, maybe $150-$200.. It just doesnt seem like villain has a strong hand here all that often.
    by 1hustlin
  • hustlin Posts: 311Subscriber
    I would raise the turn here.
    A) get value from a 10x
    B) villlain is semi committed. So if he like a big combo draw + flush draw he has a good chance of calling the turn. Which gives u more money.

    As played I was going to say bet $400-450 or so. But after reading Bart's comment it does look like he doesn't have a 10 heee. So 1/4 - 1/3 pot sizing is also nice here
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 88Subscriber
    So I actually thought he had a Ten after betting the turn. It seems that the villain is more likely to shut down his bluffs when the board pairs on the turn.

    So I actually bet big - bet $600. My opponent tank folded, which sucked.

    I think I should have raised the turn. But as played, maybe bet something like $400 - $450 on the river, I will definitely get called.

    He said he folded KT! Not sure if I believe him but it makes sense because I don't think he is check raising flop with a weak top pair either.
    by 1hustlin
  • hustlin Posts: 311Subscriber
    Makes sense. It is possible to x/r this flop OOP with TPGK.

    $400-$450 is more of a safer bet . Best for most scenarios.

    I do kinda believe he could fold K10 lol. Cause u can have J10 here.
  • fishcake Posts: 990Subscriber
    I'd raise the flop and get it in for 130bb here. Villain can have some combo draws which we're ahead of and there's no guarantee he's just going to barrel off. I think you should raise the turn also. IME, almost nobody is going to 3 barrel shove a blank river on a paired board after you called twice. Finally, on the river you should be betting really small here like $200 for the reasons Bart stated.

    -Chad
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