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Bluff catching river with top pair in 2! pot

WillHungPoker Posts: 61SubscriberProfessional
edited October 22 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hawaiian Gardens $5/$5 NLHE cash game. Original max buy-in is only $600 but we've been playing 7 hours and a lot of the stacks were extremely deep.

For this hand, the effective stack was about $1300 from my villain and I have him covered.

Villain is a young Asian guy who I've seen check raise 4 times already out of the 8-10 hands he plays on the flop as a preflop caller.

Hand: Ah Jh
There was a $10 straddle from the villain. UTG raised to $30. I am MP1 in a full-ring game with 9 players. I called. Straddle also called. Everyone else folds. Pot is 3-way at $100.

Flop: Jc 4c 2s
Villain checked from the straddle. UTG player checked. I bet $40. Villain raised to $120. UTG player folds. I call.

Analysis: UTG player is a young Asian woman playing fairly solid. When she checked, it is very likely she had something like AQ, AK, 99, or TT. I am definitely betting for value. When my villain check raise in this spot, he could have a very wide range of bluffs and very few value hands. Even if he is calling with 42s, that's only 9 combos of value hands. On the other hand, he has a LOT of flush draws and some straight draws and gutshots like A5s and A3s. Clear call.

Turn: 8d
Villain bets $250. I call.

Analysis: Definitely a blank card to me. If I was ahead on the flop, I should be ahead on this turn card.

River: 2h
Villain bets $450. Hero should...

I am not sure whether my villain will bluff in this spot very often, given this run out. However, the 2h is actually good for me because I know my villain has very few value hands. 3 combos of 44, 1 combo of Ac2c, and 1 combo of 22 for quads. What do you think?
Tagged:
by 1hustlin

Comments

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,239Subscriber
    Well how you played the hand sure looks like you have a missed FD. Her only 2 is A 2 really.

    I'd think back at his hands. Is he XRing TPGK? Seems to be XRing a lot.

    He shouldn't have QQ+. Seems like a good Jx hand or a monster with some busted FDs. I'd say this is read dependent on his history. If he has shown to XR TP, XR draws, can barrel bluff then I'd call.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,932SubscriberProfessional
    I like the way you thought about the hand, and the way you played it the entire way. As you stated, he can have a ton of draws that bricked, and very few value hands. You're at the top of your range as well. Seems like a clear-cut call on the river.
    by 1hustlin
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 61SubscriberProfessional
    I called and he showed Kc5c for busted flush draw. I can definitely be wrong and look like a donkey if show me pocket 4's but I don't think I can wait until I see a showdown before making this kind of call.

    I was making the plan to call down his bets as long as I don't see a Club when I decided to check call his check-raise.

    The interesting thing though is whether you face more villains who check-raise too much or check-raise with only pure value. Like a population leak...
  • hustlin Posts: 172Subscriber
    Pretty sick. But I lean towards folding this. Just don’t see enough triple barrels here w air.

    Good run out for you. If villain can have like QQ here I would fold.
    Tough spot.
  • CycleV Posts: 666Subscriber
    WillHungPoker said:
    I called and he showed Kc5c for busted flush draw. I can definitely be wrong and look like a donkey if show me pocket 4's but I don't think I can wait until I see a showdown before making this kind of call.
    It was 450 to win 1300 if I have the math right. (Please put pot sizes on each street.) So we can expect to lose a lot and still calling is the right play. Or to frame it the way you wrote, we can look like a donkey over 2/3 of the time of the time and still win in this spot. idk about you, but it took me a long time to lose the perfectionist streak and embrace the math of river hero calls.
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 61SubscriberProfessional
    edited October 23
    @CycleV: That is true. I also thought the bet was very small if my opponent had the full house or river trips he was representing.
  • Superfly Posts: 48SubscriberProfessional
    I like the way you played it, but thought Vs 50% pot bet on river indicated value. I would have thought a bluff would have bet more. Still, the Vs flat from straddle pre eliminates big pairs so it’s most likely that he hit some kind of draw on the low end. Trip 2s possible, but all the draws bricked so good call.

    BTW, suggest not giving the reveal so fast. Generates more discussion when people don’t know the result.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,239Subscriber
    So interesting note on her hand.

    Technically she should be betting small on this river. Either you have the same FD or you have a hand that is calling because nothing changed from the turn to river.

    You have a narrow range of Jx hands here. AJ, KJs, QJs, JTs usually ~20 combos. FDs ~10-13. So she has to bet pretty small to make that range fold. Goes to show you some of these players that are fairly good don't realize the situation fully. If you bluff a good amount then when the board doesnt change you need to give it up in general. You need to make your range look what the board is from the other good player's range.
  • fishcake Posts: 850Subscriber
    I'd snap call river and fist pump. Great runout for you. This shouldn't really be a thread, IMO. You could 3bet pre, too. 3x open with deep stacks is weak sauce.
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