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Tough spot with set of JJ's on the river

Hawaiian Gardens $5/$5 NLHE cash game. Effective stack is about $855 and I have the villain covered.

UTG +1 raised to $20, HJ called. I had JdJh from the BB. I chose to call.

Analysis: I can justify 3-betting for value. However, against early position raisers in a full-ring 9-handed game, I prefer to flat call and 3-bet with a more polarized range.

Flop: KsQs6d, pot is $65.
I checked from BB, UTG +1 checked and Villain from HJ checked.

Turn: Jc, pot is still $65.
I bet $45, UTG +1 player called, Villain raised to $125. I called. UTG +1 player folds.

Analysis: Given this action, my villain either has a straight, overplaying KT or TT, or he has some kind of Ace high combo flush draw or some flush draw with a Ten like 8Ts. However, this villain is an older Asian guy that seems to play fairly tight. But I've seen him overvalue TT and going crazy with over 100x BB on 367 board.

Nevertheless, I don't believe this guy will be turn raising here with a bluff very often. If he had a flush draw, he was much more likely to bet the flop in position after UTG +1 player and I checked. The hands that make the most sense are AT and 9T for straights. With stacks being very deep and with me way behind his range, calling is the only good play.

River: 4c, pot is $275.
I checked. Villain bet $155. What should I do?
Tagged:

Comments

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,450Subscriber
    If he either has the nuts or is bluffing call.
    If he has 2 pair and is overvaluing his hand XR an amount he will call fold to a shove. What you need to be aware here is if he calls often enough with a worse hand to make the XR profitable. So say he has KJ or AT here only.... I would XC. He has more nuts than 2 pair. You can add in 50 combos of bluffs he still isn't calling. Or even say it's AK played idiotically, KJ, and AT. Is he calling a XR with AK? You beat more of his combos than lose to in this case.

    Personally I would XC his only 2 value hands the combos beat you AJ vs KJ.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,046Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:
    If he either has the nuts or is bluffing call.
    If he has 2 pair and is overvaluing his hand XR an amount he will call fold to a shove. What you need to be aware here is if he calls often enough with a worse hand to make the XR profitable. So say he has KJ or AT here only.... I would XC. He has more nuts than 2 pair. You can add in 50 combos of bluffs he still isn't calling. Or even say it's AK played idiotically, KJ, and AT. Is he calling a XR with AK? You beat more of his combos than lose to in this case.

    Personally I would XC his only 2 value hands the combos beat you AJ vs KJ.
    I didn't quite follow this @fuzzypup. Can you restate?
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,046Subscriber
    Obviously never folding the river. I'm not sure what we can get value from with a river checkraise... If we assume he bets all his Kx hands on the flop, then we're specifically looking for value from QJ. Nothing else you beat really should even think about calling a checkraise.

    I like the way you played the hand, and I just call the river.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,450Subscriber
    I was just splitting the player type. One who is nuts or air.... and one who is value only but overvalues hands with maybe bluffing.

    NUTs or AIR
    So if he only has nuts or bluff here it's a call. Due to his bet size to the ratio of the pot we only need to be right here 1 in 4.

    VALUE or OVERVALUE or maybe BLUFF
    I just realized KJ isn't in his range. Only QJ or J6ss = 4 combos. He would have bet the flop with KJ. So he has far fewer overvalue 2 pair combos that he checks the flop and raises the turn than AT and T9s = 20 combos. You need 6:1 to call but if we include 10% spazz factor in this hand then the river turns into a call.

    If he slooooowplayed QQ and 66 those combos cancel each other out and arent a factor.
    by 1dpbuck
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 89Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    I agree with Fuzzypup that my villain will bet KJ after being checked to in position. He definitely does not have J6s. He plays a solid range of hands preflop. So I am only beating QJo and QJs in terms of value hands.

    I seriously leaned towards folding but based on the price I was getting, I made a crying call. He had AsTc. The live tell factor I could have used was how he didn't care about what I did. He was so relaxed looking at his phone and newspaper.
    by 1CycleV
  • hustlin Posts: 311Subscriber
    Not loving this spot on the river. It’s so odd to get raised here IP against a PFR . Is like almost always nutted.

    I c 910s, A10s, KK, QQ, maybe QJ but u block a bunch of combos.

    It really looks like 910 or A10s. We can discount 910s since we assume this villain may not open w this UTG.

    Given his small river bet I will call. If villain bets 2/3pot or more I will strongly consider folding here.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,046Subscriber
    Wow, maybe it's the games I play in, but I never considered folding here. Lose to AT/T9. Beat QJ, 66, plus missed draws (of which there are many). I debated calling and raising, not calling and folding.

    Now, the newspaper read added later could potentially change that in-game, but I guess I'm a station, as I don't fold a set there.
  • hustlin Posts: 311Subscriber
    ^

    I’m all for GTO calling. I must be playing really tough games than lol
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 89Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    @hustlin: No, I don't think that game I was playing was too tough. I just thought the villain has the nuts when he turn raised against 2 other players most of the time. The reason I ended up calling was based on the price I was getting and his tendency to randomly bet hands that make no sense. Even then, I wasn't loving this river spot.
  • Superfly Posts: 434Subscriber
    Will, I agree with the way you played it post flop and would have called river, too. hand too strong and price too good to fold, esp if V has a spazz factor as you say. But I would definitely 3bet pre, preferring not to play JJ oop in multiway pot. Given HJ call, I’d raise 5x to $100.
  • fishcake Posts: 990Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    River is a snap call. Sometimes we're beat but it's $155. This isn't a tough spot. You have like the top of your range here. This can never be a fold unless villain shows you his hand or something. Finally, this is a fist pump 3bet pre in LA 5/5. I may be sounding harsh but it's not even close, man. You should message me back and take some of my advice.
    -Chad
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