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99 Overpair Facing Weird Donk Bet Turn Shove from Villain

$5/$5 NLHE Cash Game at the Bicycle Casino (LA)
Effective stack was $365 from the villain. He was short stacked after taking a bad beat with KK. He is a recreational player - older Hispanic guy. Seems to play weak-tight. I haven't seen him got caught bluffing yet.

The game was 7-handed at the time. Young Euro kid raised UTG to $25. Button calls. I had 9s9d at the SB. I called. BB called.

There was argument was raising but the Euro kid who made this raise probably had a strong range of 77+, AQ+, suited Broadways, and 89s. If this is my estimation, then I actually don't want to build a big pot by 3-betting out of position with 99.

Flop is 4-ways and pot is $100.

Flop comes 3c6s6c. UTG checked, Button bets $65, I called, Villain from BB called.

Analysis: I could definitely justify check raise against a field bettor that can have a wide and weak range. The Button is an older guy that usually doesn't get out of line. I don't like raising against him because my read was he's not betting here into 3 players with only overcards. He is very likely to have 6x like 56s or 67s and Flush draws with overcards. Those hands are not folding to my check raise.

Turn: 7d Pot is $295.
Villain from BB suddenly jams all-in for his last $275. Button folds. What is my play?

@Bart and @KiLee: Have you seen this kind of donk shove at the higher limits? What do you think about this spot?
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Comments

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,046Subscriber
    With there being a lot of draws possible on this flop, and having an overpair that requires some protection, I think I'm actually a fan of a small checkraise on the flop for value. You're really only behind 6x, and you'll find out quckly enough if that is the case anywhere.

    Gross spot on the turn, as 45 gets there. It's also possible villain has 6x and was waiting for a non-club to hit the turn before getting it in. You don't block any of his bluffs, but also don't block any value hands. Even getting 2:1 I imagine this is probably a fold. You're really only beating something like Ac7c, 8c9c, or 88.
  • carru036 Posts: 173Subscriber
    Snap folding this turn vs said villain. He’s probably doing this as a protection bet with decent value hands like trips, TT, JJ, 45s and they all have us crushed.

    He probably doesn’t have a ton of Full houses in his range as those might play a little tricky. Only value hand he does this with that we beat is 88.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,975AdministratorLeadPro
    Yeah I would fold here all day on the turn, but seriously would consider playing for stack vs the button by check raising small on the flop. Bart
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 263Pro
    Let's think about a range that the villain can do this with. There are some factors that come into play. The villain is tilted, and he is short stacked. This makes it very likely for him to stack off here with much lighter holdings than he normally would, especially because there are draws present. I can see him doing this with draws himself, or other weak made hands that wants protection.
    Yes he can have hands like TT/JJ. But he can also do this with 44/55 or flush draws. Below is a range that I tried to make for the villain.
    I basically assigned 50% frequency for all his shoving hands. If you notice, I assigned the Full houses and trips, and personally, I think that these are highly unlikely played to be played this way. He'd definitely want to trap. But I gave him those holdings just to be conservative. To be honest, even straights and trips should be discounted quite a bit. A big portion of his range should be one pair hands or draws. As you can see, even with this conservative range that I assigned, we are about 50% in equity, which makes it a clear call. We are getting about 2:1 on our money, so we only need 33% equity(actually a little less) to call. This is a slam-dunk call in my opinion.
    1203 x 714 - 267K
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 263Pro
    Just to see what kind of range would we need to assume in order to fold, I assigned a ridiculously tight range for the villain. I assigned 100% frequency for all nutted hands like 77/66/76/33/A6s/65s/45s etc(which is not even close to reality in my opinion). I also assigned 100% of 88-JJ(JJ/TT should be 3bet at partial frequency preflop, so he shouldn't have all of them arriving here on the turn). Then I assigned only very few FDs that either picked up a pair or a straight draw, and only half the combos of 44/55(this is also extremely conservative). Given this range, we are still well above our required equity - we have 38%. I would have a VERY hard time being convinced that this is a fold.
    1202 x 713 - 260K
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 263Pro
    Below is a range that I manipulated so that we get close to the required equity of 32.5%
    50% the frequency with all FH or quads.
    50% frequency with 88-JJ
    50% frequency with only very few FDs that picked up a pair or a straight draw
    25% frequency with 44/55
    100% frequency with straights and trips

    We still have 34% equity vs this range...
    1201 x 714 - 264K
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,046Subscriber
    @KiLee I don't see any of your ranges including non-boated sixes like 46s-A6s, and perhaps all the A6o combos. A slightly tilty shortstack recreational player is going to call a lot of those hands on the button, and then have a ton of trip six hands that wait for a non-club to get it in on the turn IMO.

    That being said, I played around with some ranges as well, and will admit it was closer than I thought. And maybe it is opponent-dependent on what he would do with boats, 6x, pair+FDs, etc. Perhaps us not having the 9c and unblocking 9c7c, 9c8c, and 9c5c is enough to swing to a call. This does in fact appear to be closer than meets the eye.


  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 263Pro
    Calling offsuit 6 seems like a bit of stretch. And assuming that he will always shove 6x OTT doesn’t seem accurate either. I think the big variables here is the short stack and SPR where the villain will likely feel committed with any hand that he has. I would estimate him to have a lot of one pair types of hands and FDs more than FH or even trips.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,046Subscriber
    That seems legit. My only wonder is why he would wait for the turn with those one pair and flush draw type hands unless the 7d improved him? That's the only part of that that gives me pause... I mean, why would KcJc open jam the turn on that card?
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 88Subscriber
    I agree there are some combinations like 88, 8c9c, and Ac7c that we beat and then we get crushed by 45s. I think this particular villain is much more likely to just shove with 6x on 663 2 clubs because I doubt he wants to give free cards to both of us. Similar thing can be said for hands like KcJc or AcTc. I would think he just check raise shove on the flop.

    88 - 4 combos, 8c9c - 1 combo, Ac7c, - 1 combo. Total = 6 combos where I have about 70% equity with 1 card to come.
    45s - 4 combos where we only have 4 outs: 2 6's and 2 9's. So maybe like 8%-10% equity.

    From this narrow range, it seems like a clear call getting 2 to 1. However, I agree with Bart that I've seen players who only have what they consider the "nuts" in this spot. So from the villain's point of view, 45s would be his "nuts" on the turn.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 263Pro
    edited October 2018
    Often players make plays that make no sense. Like betting on A high board with KK. Turning second pair into a bluff, etc. I don't think that the villain will be thinking along the lines of "okay if I pick up additional equity OTT I'm going to jam". It's more just instinctual and on the turn he realizes that the pot is big and he doesn't have much left. He just shrugs and shoves and somehow hopes that he wins. I have seen it a lot. That's why I would assign him a wide range of hands. Not just nutted hands. I am pretty much snap calling here, personally.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,046Subscriber
    Good discussion on combos and player pool tendencies ITT.

    Overall, this probably comes down to @WillHungPoker view of this player, and what he thinks he would do with each of these type hands. There are some players who shove 6x on the flop to protect, and others who will wait until a "safe" turn card before shoving. Likewise there are some players who shove FDs on the flop to make sure they see both cards, and others who are going to on the turn, as Ki put it, "shrug and shove and somehow hope he wins". Only needing ~35% equity, I think it is close either way. I lean fold, but am certainly not going to judge anyone for calling.
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 88Subscriber
    @Bart You said you would fold here basically every time in spots like this. Why? Is it because villains are rarely bluffing in spots like these?
  • PrimoVictor Posts: 59Subscriber
    1 of the two draws came in and he is short stacked shoving into two people. I feel like more than not our 99 is crushed now. You also mentioned you haven't seen him show a bluff yet. Only hand I can see us ahead of here is an 98 combo but we hold two of the 9s. I would be folding on the turn.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,975AdministratorLeadPro
    @williamhung I just don't think that he would make this play with many draws after overcalling the flop. It's more likely that he would check raise on the flop if he wanted to add some fold equity. I feel like this is a 6 a lot and if we take out some of the draws that @kilee assigned I don't think that we would be getting the right price on a call. I think it's much closer than I first thought, and probably something that is close to 0 EV.

    In these close spots sometimes I gamble a bit to increase my stack or get more money on the table in cap games. Bart
  • WillHungPoker Posts: 88Subscriber
    Cool. He did turn out to have 45 suited for a straight on the turn. I wasn't thrilled about this spot but it's helpful to look at the hand ranges, math, and psychology together.
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