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if not for variance....

i am a losing player at the moment... sad to say but true.. i have a small br next to nothing..but i play 12nl at my local casino. i just started keeping track of my wins and losses 12 hrs up 360 first week second week 7 hours down 400.. thanks to bad beats that i account to variance.. the games are pretty soft.. i think it is awesome i can get villains to put there money in the middle with say like last night with 10 5 dd on a board f QJ6 ddc.. only to lose to runner runner straight. that is the bad part. it is hard to build my br when variance rears its ugly head.. so here is my style of play.. i start off being pretty nitty to start a session.. usually win a bigger pot to a loose guy... then the villains figure out i am playing nitty and start to call my raises with hands like 36suited hoping beat my higher cards... cards .. yep sluffed off lots of chips that ... it happens... then i change up and start playing suited connectors and win that back plus some... plan goes well for a bit then bam variance hits and breaks me... couple examples first night of the second week...
me in sb
utg2 limp
hj raise to 15
sb AKs reraise to 30
limper folds hj calls
flop Ac Qc 3s
hj bets 45 i reraise all in for 120 hj calls
turn is red 7 and river is Kc
i show my two pair and villain shows K2c for a rivered flush... im busted and go home frustrated thanks to variance ...

second night of week.. 4 hour session...
im bb AQs
utg limps folds to button he limps... i raise to 15 utg calls button folds
flop comes Qd Jd 6c villain bets 30 i reraise all in for 82dollars villian calls
turn is K and river is A
i show my two pair villain shows 10 5 dd for rivered straight again all i can do is shake my head tell everyone have a good game and walk my butt back to my car and thank variance for being my arch nemesis !!!
side note both these hands i lost were played by lags....
and i switch between tag and lag depending on the villains at the table and how i think i am perceived ... side note 2 if these players would have been tight i would have folded flop on both. i have folded pocket AA facing all in on flop of QJ7 rainbow board in week one ... and folded trip 7 on flop to 10 9 7 ddh board to all in bet. i showed my trips and he showed two pair... course i thought he had trips or better .... oh... br down to 200 told ya it was small...LOL... any thoughts suggestions or questions would be greatly appreciated... ty in advance

Comments

  • PokerIlluminati Posts: 3Subscriber
    As you posted there is lots of variance in poker. My suggestion would be to continue studying the game and build a bankroll up that allows you to withstand the ups and downs of the game.

    Regarding the first hand, I would suggest making it a larger raise to say 40-50. Best of luck and hand in there.
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    All these hand histories look like they're missing a key element, what your action is on the flop. It looks like you're check raising each of these flops. Now, the problem with this is that you check, they bet, you raise, they already have money invested. With these hands and the money that is already in the pot, they probably shouldn't fold these hands post flop once you check raise all in.

    A few other things you may want to look into. In both of these hands, the opponents have a flush draw and backdoor straight draws. In the first hand, you're just a 63/37 favorite. In the second, you're just a 60/40 favorite.

    The shorter you buy in, the larger variance is going to be because your money is committed earlier. In general, the more cards to come, the closer equities run because hand strengths can change vastly. Especially on the two examples you posted.

    $200 also is not a bankroll. I'd suggest building your bankroll up by either funding through your job, or even building up through micro stakes online. Good luck!
  • Sonny Posts: 291Subscriber
    19 hours is literally nothing when it comes to time invested in Poker. Keep getting the Villains to put their money in whenyou are a favorite and you will be a winner. Study study study.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,364AdministratorLeadPro
    Practice writing out hand histories in the correct format. Hand recall is an often undervalued and overlooked skill. A lot of times our emotions get the best of us when trying to tell a hand history that is really a bad beat story and the true details of the hand is lost. Like in the two hands that you posted did you check raise the flop all-in after being the preflop aggressor?
  • rabidslacker Posts: 5Subscriber
    thank you all for your thoughts... i am always looking for advice and thoughts and incites.. they are most appreciated..
    sorry about not being more specific... i was preflop aggressor.. post flop however i was not as i was in the blinds and in fact i checked to see what they would do... i did not want to raise and have them fold the junk to a raise... i wanted to stack them.. lol.. these two villains in particular had been showing down way inferior at the river with Ace high and bottom pair type hands and putting in decent raises with them on the flop. i wanted to punish them for that. max buy in at my 1,2 nl game is 300 minimum is about 60 i think... i have been playing seriously now for about 3 years, most of that time has been in another casino in the quad cities. i do played in tournaments there, lost mostly. but final tabled a few times a rough guess is i played 80ish tournaments but only final tabled three times in that period. i took no notes there, but started buying books to learn, started really trying to learn tells from people i played with and would play a short stack, 60 dollar, buy in, before the tournament started. trying to double my chips to play the tournament free..LOL. which would work most of the time. of a field of 95 to 105, i would generally make it to between 11th and 23rd place before being knocked out. those days i was really angry when i left not a winner. i have learned to deal with that mostly. i am no longer angry when i get busted. sad yes angry no. i congratulate them and wish them luck then leave. here the 19 hours is the time i have started writing down my wins and losses and how much time i have put on the tables and keeping track. i am horrible and hand histories mainly because i feel weird taking notes at the table. so i am struggling with that. however these two particular hands i put in my phone as i was leaving the poker room and exiting the casino. so definitely need to do that and just get comfy with it along with format for putting in hand histories. another thing i am horrible at.. need lots more practice. my job keeps me working 10 hour days two weeks out of the month so when i am working i dont go to the casino to play but rather spend a minimum of 4 hours a day with some sort of study whether i am in a freeroll, reading, watching vlogs or devouring content such as here to get my understanding of the concepts of the game more in depth. when i am off is when i go play at the casino and still study daily. certain hands stick in my head and i replay them to see if there is anything i might have done differently that might change the outcome. like these two hands my primary thought is maybe i call then shove or turn and at least one of them folds. maybe maybe not as even tho they didnt improve on turn but maybe one because he had me covered by about 25 dollars .. the other tho had me covered by about 200ish so probably not.. anyway there is more info about me and the hand.. basically a stone cold newbie to the game
  • BartBart Posts: 5,364AdministratorLeadPro
    Ok you should start posting hands here. I will definitely respond. Try breaking up your pots into paragraphs too as a wall of text is kind of hard to read. Bart
  • 292YBlock Posts: 51Subscriber
    Couple of quick thoughts... I don't think I've ever left a casino or game, after loosing my initial buy-in. I generally buy-in for the max and will top-off as necessary. I recently took Sonny's advice and top-off from chips in my pocket, rather than re-buy at the table...you really want to play as deep stacked as possible. If I get three buy-ins deep I'll call it a night.

    Re: "i start off being pretty nitty to start a session.. usually win a bigger pot to a loose guy... then the villains figure out i am playing nitty and start to call my raises with hands like 36suited hoping beat my higher cards... cards .. yep sluffed off lots of chips that ... it happens... then i change up and start playing suited connectors and win that back plus some..."...

    Be VERY careful and aware when playing suited connectors, weaker hands like this when you're not getting a great stack to pot ratio, or have a positional advantage, I have been more vigilant about this, and its helped my win rate. As Bart points out, generally if you flop well you'll flop a draw - very hard to play out of position.

    Best to you, by using the resources in this forum you're already ahead of many players :)
  • rabidslacker Posts: 5Subscriber
    9 times out of ten i play suited connectors from late position... the other time from early just to throw people off kind of to throw off the table from thinking i a nit and i can play pretty much anything from anywhere... as far as buyins... i can only take 200 per session cuz that is usually all i have right now thanks to life....tho my first week of keeping track i worked it up to 600 this week i have lost 400 so back to my original starting point... LOL
  • rabidslacker Posts: 5Subscriber
    ok so here is a couple hands i played tonight..
    5 limpers.. utg+1 mp2(me) KQ off , and button and both blinds ...flop comes 48Q ranibow. checks to me i bet 15, all call turn is a 7 i bet 25 only caller is button river is a 9 checks thru and i win pot button shows Q6.. i was scared of straight as this is a bingo table with peeps calling with anything preflop
    the very next hand
    iget 10 10 my stack about 150 or 160
    early guy... i think is weak and a bit on tilt cuz of an earlier play i made...he limps .. i raise to 15 all fold.. 15 is my standard open at 1 2 from earlier positions... he reraises to 60.. i go all in ...my thinking is was he is weak he is on a bit of tilt because of me been seeing him play crap hands from all positions..so i called... flop was three clubs turn a J and river is another club..of course i lose the hand.. i expected him to have some sort of Ax off which still would have beat me.... im losing lots of flips that break me so that is a leak i need to fix cuz it seems i am not winning the flips.. least i think 55 to 44 a flip... any other thoughts?
  • CycleV Posts: 666Subscriber
    Welcome to the forums...

    but if you don't format your posts better, I know I won't have the patience to wade through them.

    Help us help you
  • DeaTHBunnY Posts: 1Subscriber
    I seems like you have an issue that I also had to correct. You are far too eager to get all-in when it is not warranted. Just because you are 55/45 on the flop does not mean you have to get all-in. Hand values change with every card that is dealt. Learn hand values and how to play them against you opponents perceived range and your "variance" will be reduced significantly. This is tournament poker with short stacks and antes. It plays very differently.

    Also, grammar is your friend. I could not read the wall of text and only quickly got the highlights. For more in depth discussions people will have to know what you are asking without having to decipher the message.
  • GrinddaddyGrinddaddy Posts: 31Subscriber
    this can be tilting but read jared tendlers book man it helps to understand luck vs skil dealing with variance and various types of tilt
  • RecreationalRogerRecreationalRoger Posts: 746Subscriber
    Hey rabidslacker,

    Here is a link to a HH I posted awhile back, I think it follows a similar format for a HH that other CLP posters use. Agree with everyone above that neater HH's will get you more feedback.

    http://www.crushlivepoker.com/forums/discussion/13626/1-2-flop-trips-with-tk-heavy-action#latest
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,239Subscriber
    One fool making a retarded play may cost 10-20 hours of profit.

    So if you have say 4 hands all in for 100bb stacks ahead 95% of the time if just one of those 4x is a loss that is 10-20 hours of profit lost.

    That is how bad variance can bet. Chain a bunch of losses that can kill your winrate and drive you insane for many sessions. Now that it is driving you to madness you play worse questioning yourself lowering your winrate and increasing your variance.

    Welcome to hell. Have a 100bi bankroll so it doesn't affect you. 10 bi downswings are not uncommon.
  • Jwhoover Posts: 14Subscriber
    It sounds like you struggle with something I struggled with in the beginning, almost like you are taking hands personally. If someone opens or if you raise and they reraise, don’t level yourself into making a bad play because “he is doing this on tilt because of a play I made on him earlier”. I would be careful with this way of thinking, it may happen but its best to take meta game out of it when you are this new to the game. You need to just focus on hand reading, playing your hand the best you can vs any villians, take the ego out of it.

    If you can eliminate the meta game of “he is doing this bc of something I did earlier, and he knows I know this” mentality and replace it with “this is his hand range, he can have these hands in this position, I can have these hands..go from there, eliminate all personal thoughts and focus on hand reading and emotional responses.
  • 292YBlock Posts: 51Subscriber
    rabidslacker said:
    ok so here is a couple hands i played tonight..
    5 limpers.. utg+1 mp2(me) KQ off , and button and both blinds ...flop comes 48Q ranibow. checks to me i bet 15, all call turn is a 7 i bet 25 only caller is button river is a 9 checks thru and i win pot button shows Q6.. i was scared of straight as this is a bingo table with peeps calling with anything preflop
    the very next hand
    iget 10 10 my stack about 150 or 160
    early guy... i think is weak and a bit on tilt cuz of an earlier play i made...he limps .. i raise to 15 all fold.. 15 is my standard open at 1 2 from earlier positions... he reraises to 60.. i go all in ...my thinking is was he is weak he is on a bit of tilt because of me been seeing him play crap hands from all positions..so i called... flop was three clubs turn a J and river is another club..of course i lose the hand.. i expected him to have some sort of Ax off which still would have beat me.... im losing lots of flips that break me so that is a leak i need to fix cuz it seems i am not winning the flips.. least i think 55 to 44 a flip... any other thoughts?
    The first hand why are we limping, if you're playing KQ, with players behind why not raise...thin the field, hard to limp and then say: "i was scared of straight as this is a bingo table with peeps calling with anything preflop"....plus the only straights that get there are gut shots, you missed value on the river...Best sizing on turn is too small, there should be 85- rake in the pot, say 78, I'm betting 40-45..

    Agree with others, second hand is emotional...do you want to play for stacks with 10 10? If you do, you can't complain when you get stacked due to "variance"...a flip is just that..why not get it heads up and see a flop and even a guy playing lots of hands can wake up with a hand..fold or call the 60 and see the flop, although when he limp raises (stronger than just opening in early position) he's showing a lot of strength..unless we're deep stacked I'm probably finding a fold.

    Agree with others about formatting, please!
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