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Jam or Flat?

IGotTheNuts Posts: 12Subscriber
edited November 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Playing 2/5

UTG Limps

I'm UTG+1 (stack of ~1200) and look down at 8 9 and I raise to 20

V1 on the Button calls (starting stack 473). She's an older asian lady who is watching something on her phone (should've been a flag).

V2 in the SB calls (starting stack 214). Mid-to-older asian guy who has shown a propensity to be gamble.

BB and Limper call as well. So 5 ways to the flop.

Flop Q 10 7

V2 in SB open jams for 197 into 100. BB and UTG both fold.

I've got an open ended straight flush draw and still have to worry about the button behind me. I put the SB on two pair, Q7, Q10, 107. Not sure if he takes this same line with a set. I'm guessing he 3 bets with QQ and 1010 so only probable set is 77. That gives him 21 value hands. He could also have the nut flush draw and at that point, I've still got an open ended straight draw plus any 8 or 9 (12 outs).

Do I flat at this point and worry about the button jamming and then I have to call off another ~$260 and get 3.6:1 on my money or do I jam to maximize fold equity and get her off any top pair hand like QJ Q9 or KJ or a non-nut flush draw?. I don't think she's folding KQ or AQ here.


  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    I think with these eff stacks you want to keep her in the hand... it increases the odds on your draw. If you jam do you really think she will fold a better draw? I dont. I also dont see the value in getting her to fold top pair. You still have 0 showdown value against the open jam. I think flat and try to entice her money into the pot.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,787AdministratorLeadPro
    You have to beat the all-in guy. SO at this point you want more money in the pot and would rather flat. Ive talked about this before many times on the podcast and call-in shows. No need to drive her out of the hand, unless somehow you need to drive out higher clubs.. But thats very unlikely. Bart
  • IGotTheNuts Posts: 12Subscriber
    I remember you bringing this up a couple times and both your points makes sense. I don’t think higher clubs are folding here. Thanks.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,290Subscriber
    You want to keep her weaker range in the hand which out numbers her strong range so a call is in order. Overall it's +EV dead money. Shoving makes her fold that weaker range you beat.

    Now if you were fairly certain she had a FD.... then I'd shove because you are at the bottom of FDs.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,290Subscriber
    Interestingly I just had a hand like this @ $50 FR NL online. 100bb stacks.

    I raised 7 6 got called in one spot.... Q 5 4 giving me an 2x draw.... guy donk bets 1/2p.
    So what's he donking? 95% of the time this isn't something strong at this level. I just took about 20s then shoved on him and he folded. This is an overplay at lower limits but at these limits it does what I want. Make him fold a Q or a better FD. And if he calls with TPGK I am still ahead. But almost always he folds his FD. He has to have A 4 or A 3 or A 2 to bet and stack off. But they usually don't bet big draws like this. They XC or XRAI.

    Raising doesnt get him to fold and pot commits him. Calling loses my leverage. So this was a weird spot where I thought shoving was the best play for maximum Berkey fold equity. Rarely I make this specific play.

    vs other players I might raise enough, then shove the turn. Especially live they would see the shove for what it was and stack off anyways with KQ or AQ.
  • Sonny Posts: 385Subscriber
    edited November 2018
    Just an aside... bringing it to the begining. Is 98 suited a must open from UTG+1? That seems a little loose to me? Isn't 98 one of those hands that PIO has shown to preform sub optimally against a lot of calling ranges from later positions since it connects with them pretty hard on the bad end? J10, QJ, etc etc. I really don't kow much of anything about optimal play but I thought I heard @Bart say that 98 specifically interacts poorly.

    I mean it is what it is once we flop an open ended straight flush, but is this a spot that is good to expose ourselves to in the first place?
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,290Subscriber
    I don't use PIO solver because I can't afford it. Just from my experience and thoughts 98s is a tough hand to play for the reasons you mentioned but it's due to it's top end straight. If you flop JTx many hands that call you aren't folding for a bet and have you pretty crushed. AK, AQ, KQ....

    But opening SCs from up front depends on the table also.
    It is also used for balance. So in this case while 98s might be -EV in EP it pushes up the value of your stronger hands like AA/KK. So if you are only opening lets say TT+, AK from EP no one is going to pay you. But if you have enough other cards in that range now your better hands make more money even though your weaker range makes less. So sometimes on a micro scale a play or scenario shows in one of the solvers as -EV but there are so many variables in poker that can change how a hand is played, especially live. This is just my opinion and from my experience.

    I'm sure the play I ran above would probably be a large no-no in PIO solver. But other factors made it correct.

    Really understand your table dynamics. Online some tables I am a 10/9. Other tables I am a 32/26. I play FR. Both these extremes are incredibly rare and mostly I fall into the 23/17 range.
    by 1Sonny
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